Weekly, we’ll take a look at the top game environments and what you need to target to chase ceiling fantasy outcomes. We’ll also go over where we think games may fail. In addition the game environments, I’ll also list top stacks and a DK core (usually 4-5 players) where you can start your builds this week!
In tandem with these thoughts, make sure to check out our range of outcome models for projections and ownership – Paydirt NFL Range of Outcomes
Week 17 provides us with a small 9-game main slate. Think there’s some very good game environments to target given the uncertainty this week. I broke down the games in some higher level detail here – LTF – Week 17
DISCLAIMER: This is a VERY volatile weke with some teams having nothing to play for. Don’t lean into high-owned plays unless there’s certainty. This is a great week to get weird! Buld arounds are below:
- CIN/ARI
- Stacking either side of this game is a strong proposition and think you can overstack here. I think there’s a big leverage opportunity here whether MHJ gets ruled in or out, here’s why….
- With both Wilson and MHJ on the field, McBride’s efficiencies are at it’s peak. If MHJ gets ruled out, you will no doubtedly see mega chalk on Michael Wilson. The Bengals are a horrendous defense but they have been rather elite at limiting WRs, particularly outside receivers and WR1s. I think we get McBride at a slight ownership discount if MHJ is ruled out.
- From the Bengals side, the Cardinals run a super soft and “bend but don’t break” cover 4/6″. They invite you to run and while they don’t give up a ton of deep balls, they do give up a TON of crossing routes. Ja’Marr Chase can explode here if the Bengals go full force (which I expect them to). Only drawback on this game are the price tags. My preffered route if stacking CIN is Burrow/Chase/Gesicki, Burrow/Chase/Brown, or Burrow/Chase/Yoshi. I would not play Burrow +1 as Burrow will be the highest owned QB on the slate.
- Leverage points: I think if you’re going to stack ARI, I’d make a rule to have one of Chase/Brown in that build. Chase Brown in general is a bit underowned for my liking even at his $7,400 price tag. He has a RB2 workload with rushing attempts and a WR2 receiving role. Hard to not like that on a weak RB week against this defense. Think Michael Carter is fine if you need the salary relief.
- JAX/IND
- You know how much I LOVE attacking Colts games and this week won’t be any different. This Jags offense will come with some ownership and it’s rightfully deserved after lighting the world on fire the past month. Rivers has the Colts more competitive on offense than people have expected. In my opinion, this can play out very similarly to last week’s game between the Colts and 49ers.
- Both teams are fighting for something here, and the Colts have sort of shifted their defensive scheme into a more man heavy defense since they traded for Sauce Gardner. They want to pin the receivers outside the hashes and try to close the middle of the field. And in my opinion, that’s why this game can explode….
- Jacksonville stacks are where I’m going to be heavily invested in small field contests. Lawrence/ETN is a great start and think you can absolutely play one of the WRs with them. I think you can also stack Lawrence with just two pass catchers and maintain upside. ETN is just such a big part of their passing game and unlike most teams who like to use RB as receivers against zone, Liam Cohen likes to send him deep when he has a LB on him. This has ETN 20-30 yard receiving score written all over it. Love any of BTJ/Parker Washington/Meyers/Strange. All are viable and if you’re in a 3-5 entry max, I’d consider playing variations of this stack.
- For the Colts side, they get a Jacksonville team who’s hot but honestly, not that great in the secondary. They try blitz a ton but they tend to leave the middle of the field wide open. They run a VERY similar brand of defense that the 49ers run but with more base pressure. Since Rivers has taken the reigns at QB, they have abandoned their RPO/play action game so Rivers can get the ball out quicker. This is a very good spot for guys like PIttman and Downs. Pierce is fine too but I do think he ran hot with TDs, but if he’s a red zone threat, have to consider him. Jags have been staunch against the run too.
- Leverage points: Biggest leverage points for me are on the receivers for both teams. In every JAX stack I make, I will be including a Colts WR on the come back. I will not touch Tyler Warren here. His success this year has primarily been due to their play action/RPO scheme but he’s struggled a bit out of base sets. Given that the Jags blitz alot, I think Downs/Pittman are the benefactors. On the JAX side, I want exposure to all 3 receivers in a super man-heavy matchup. Finally, play ETN in your Lawrence stacks.
- NE/NYJ
- This game has some sneaky fantasy appeal and you already know NE is in a great spot. But, I do think some of these Jets pieces can also get there. Let me explain….
- NE is completely depleted on offense. It looks like Trayveon is going to play so that probably takes Rhamondre out of consideration (even though a two RB lineup makes sense in large field settings). If Trayveon is out, obviously we go full steam ahead with Rhamondre. The WR room is where I’m most intrigued. They ruled out Hollins & Boutte, and Douglas is a true Q. I lean more towards him missing. If he does, that means it’s Diggs, Kyle Williams, and Hunter Henry left against the worst defense in the league that for some reason refuses to play anything outside of press man. If you think the Patriots style on the Jets here, NE stacks are cheap as ever.
- The Jets are an abomination but they do have a much better receiving room than people want to give them credit for. AD Mitchell is one of the elite separators in the league and the Pats do run their fair share of man. The Pats defense has been a bit leaky of late and now they have a few key guys out for this game. I think the Jets at home here can put up some points. I’m not advising to stack them but do think grabbing a one off is more than viable on this slate.
- Leverage points: He won’t project super well, but I do think that Breece Hall offers you a significant leverage piece here. I don’t believe the field has caught up to how the run D for the Pats has fallen off a cliff and Breece Hall has been getting fed since they said they don’t plan on trading him. If you’re stacking NE, I think Breece Hall is an elite run back. Love him as a one-off too. Gets you a lot of leverage off of chalkier pieces around his price range in Gainwell and Tracy. Also, Kyle Williams is an elite GPP cheap WR play. I almost hope Douglas plays so we get him sub 5% owned here. Got a feeling he breaks off one against this horrenodus man defense.
- NO/TEN
- This game is going to make up a lot of my ownership this week and there’s value plays all over. The Saints play at the fastest pace in the league and have been servicable on offense. People may not want to change their biases, but the Titans have been as well. You factor in that both teams don’t have the best secondaries, this could be the cheap blowup spot of the week.
- We were on Shough and these NO stacks last week and this week is no different. Olave has gotten a considerable price increase but the rest of these pieces are super cheap. The Titans have been a quintessential pass funnel and have been rather good at limiting RB production. I mentioned this to Tribe on The Bakery this week and his jaw was on the floor. This Titans has secondary has only TWO players who were on the team since Week 1. That’s INSANITY. Love NO stacks any which way.
- From the Tennesee side, Cam Ward has been real life good but hasn’t had a fantasy score that is noteworthy. They’ve also had some incredibly slow matchups in recent weeks with the Chiefs, 49ers, and Browns. Now they get a true pace up spot here and the Saints deploy a Cover 3 shell that morphs into a single high safety look. Dike is a sharp play here as are both TEs. I do think Van Jefferson is an ok large field dart throw. Pollard is firmly in play and don’t hate Spears in the largest of fields.
- Leverage points: The NO side of this game will carry ownership as it should. Shough doubles/triples are firmly in play and I believe you can include Taysom Hill in that stack or as a one-off. Shough/Olave/Juwan Johnson/Hill is disgusting but it leaves you with $6,140 per position left. TEN stacks are a spot that no one’s talking about and at their prices, this is such a pace up spot that they can reach a ceiling. They’ve scored 24 points in 3 of the last 4 weeks and have scored 20 ore more in 5 of their last 7. Pollard or Spears in a run back is sicko mode but I love it for the largest of fields.
- NYG/LV
- Man oh man. This game is going to cause one of these fan bases some real agita come 630PM EST as both these teams should do their best to try and lose for draft equity. However, Pete Carroll’s momma didn’t raise no bitch.
- From the Giants side, they’ve been the league lowest in pass rate over expectation every week since Kafka took over. Bad offensive line and Dart’s unwillingness to keep his body out of harm’s way is a recipe for a ton of hand-off’s here. I called this out last week when I said that Vikings D was incredible leverage because the Giants have put it in park essentially and Dart will struggle with disguise defenses. If they were to let him rip here, he could crush. But, I think Kafka was instructed to get this QB to the finish line unharmed. If there’s ANY sight of trouble here or he gets knicked up, I think you see Jameis take over quickly. Not touching any of these receivers but it is a Wan’Dale spot. Tracy and Singletary are fine but I’m not eating Tracy chalk here.
- From the Raiders side, I’m quite interested. Pete Carroll has never heard of the word tank. If you told him to define what the word “tank” means, he would probably pull out a WW2 textbook and point to a picture while chewing a half pound of gum. This motherfucker will not lie down. And if I’m wrong, I’ll fall on my sword here. Man heavy matchup against a college level secondary in the Giants??? Yeah I want cheap Geno stacks. Jeanty’s a sick play too and Geno/Jeanty/Tucker is just a chef’s kiss to go get the spend ups you want.
- Leverage points: Technically speaking, Giants D/Tracy is a high leverage move BUT this Giants team has been tanking for a month now. Pete Carroll tried to win a game in Houston last week and Geno had his best game in a month. Jeanty is a tough fade so stacking him with Geno and a pass catcher is where I want to live. Also, Jeanty/Raiders D firmly in play.
Here are stacks that I’m considering heading into Sunday. Please note, these are stacks I’m considering with their Quarterback included! The stacks here may not necessarily reflect the game environments above –
- NO
- TEN
- NE
- TB
- LV
- CIN
- ARI
- JAX
- SEA
Finally, here is the core I’m going to be using to start my builds in Small Field/SE. This is subject to change with injury news and comments from coaching staffs, but you can use this as a starting point and pivot off of –
BOL! – Jason O