Weekly, we’ll take a look at the top game environments and what you need to target to chase ceiling fantasy outcomes. We’ll also go over where we think games may fail. In addition the game environments, I’ll also list top stacks and a DK core (usually 4-5 players) where you can start your builds this week!
In tandem with these thoughts, make sure to check out our range of outcome models for projections and ownership – Paydirt NFL Range of Outcomes
What a season it’s been! This is our last regular season edition of the Light The Fuse article. We have a massive 13 game slate with a slew of backups getting the nod. Let’s get after it.
DISCLAIMER: This is a VERY volatile week with some teams having nothing to play for. Don’t lean into high-owned plays unless there’s certainty. Take the leverage points with a grain of salt because this is truly a choose your own adventure slate.
Not listed below are CHI/DET and MIA/NE. I think NE as a stack is never a bad idea but they may not to go full force here the whole game. MIA’s RBs are super cheap but that’s the extent of my interest on their side. If you want to try and guess between Henderson/Rhamondre, you be my guest.
The CHI/DET game is fairly obvious and I have plenty of interest. It won’t be sneaky. Feel free to use these as well to get some value –
- ATL/NO
- Focus here on NO stacks, it’s very cheap here and even though they’ll be without Olave, still think going to Juwan Johnson/Austin is very viable.
- ATL side is fruitful too. I’ll probably hold off on London but do want Bijan and Pitts.
- Leverage points: Bijan will be mega oned tomorrow and for good reason. I think if you want to play some Allgeir in large field you can. Think there’s some underowned plays on NO in Dante Pettis and Audric Estime. 15 carries and a few targets for Estime at $5,000 can get there in this matchup.
- LAR/ARI
- If McVay really is going to go full force here, then I’m into every Rams player who will be suiting up on offense as a piece you can go to. We won’t get Adams back but if Corum misses, I think this is a lock-and-load Kyren Wiliams spot. In general, I would want Kyren and Puka on most of my builds if they’re not going to rest any starters. Stafford is expensive but I think you can stack him in smaller fields if you want. Love Ferguson/Parkinson as punt TE plays too.
- For the ARI side, I’m locking and loading with Michael Wilson against this secondary that has been exposed week after week. Brissett/Wilson is an amazing start to builds in any format and adding McBride in that stack is pricy but does have win equity.
- Leverage points: I would love to start most of my builds with Kyren/Wilson but we do need confirmation that they’ll have no restrictions. This game between SEA/SF has implications for sure. I think Xzavier Weaver is a good large field dart throw.
- CLE/CIN
- I’m not sure how much I want to stack CIN here with Burrow because CLE has been rather staunch as a passing D but they have totally shit the bed as a run D unit. Fire up Chase Brown. Idc how point chasey it is. He’s coming in at sub 10% ownership and they’re 7 point home favorites….. I also don’t mind Tee/Ja’Marr in this man heavy matchup but I lean Tee Higgins. Can see a couple deep shots coming his way against this press man.
- On the CLE side, this is a treasure trove of value. I’m serious. Even if it’s CLE. Sanders as a QB play makes a lot of sense and all the weapons are cheap. I don’t love that Fannin’s not playing but Shadeur/Jeudy or any other pass catcher is cheap and in a good spot. Also, Dylan Sampson against this CIN run d? I’m in for that in large field.
- Leverage points: CLE as a team is just too cheap in a matchup we’ve seen get exploited week after week by any team the Bengals play. Dylan Sampson is probably my favorite play from that side.
- NYG/DAL
- Well I have some egg on my face from last week because the Giants decided to unleash Dart for some god forsaken reason but now he has a matchup against Dallas where I’m convinced both teams will want to end the season the right way. No Wan’Dale hurts so I’m leaning moreso towards the DAL side by Slayton’s too cheap as is Hodgins. The RBs from NYG are where I’d look to pivot.
- Dallas has both RBs out of commission so they’re turning to Jaydon Blue… who hasn’t had a snap since Week 8 lol. But he’s mega cheap. DAL stacks are firmly in play and the expensive tags on Lamb/Pickens makes me think people won’t touch this a full stack,
- Leverage points: DAL stacks are firmly the best leverage here. Game has one of the higher totals on the week and the only player on Dallas getting 10% or more ownership is Ceedee Lamb. I’ll be taking shots here with Dallas doubles for sure. Also, I will have some Jaydon Blue.
- PHI/WAS
- We get the Tanner McKee experience here and I’m going to take some shots here on both sides of this game. The Eagles are resting starters so every player in this game will be in a plus matchup and too cheap for their roles. My lean is to go with Bigsby/Shipley or Stack McKee with Dotson/Cooper or Calcaterra.
- For the Commanders, if they’re playing against backups themselves, hard not to try and get some Deebo or McLaurin here. RBs are ok too.
- Leverage points: Some cheap stacking potential here for the PHI side. Also, Bigsby will most likely get a ton of work.
- JAX/TEN
- Going to keep this one short and sweet. Jacksonville stacks will be owned but they’re top 3 in my personal stack rankings here against a Titans D that wants you to throw the ball. They sell out to stop the run. Lawrence/Parker Washington and pick your next favorite stacking partner. ETN is a bit pricy for me here in this spot so I’ll be avoiding.
- TEN I have zero issues playing this offense as every week they’re too cheap. They have found a groove as of late. Given the parameters of the slate, Cam Ward is a bit too expensive but I do like picking off Dike, Ayomanor, or Okonkwo are bring backs or one offs.
- Leverage points: Bring someone back from the TEN side. Jacksonville isn’t a scary matchup whatsoever.
Here are stacks that I’m considering heading into Sunday. Please note, these are stacks I’m considering with their Quarterback included! The stacks here may not necessarily reflect the game environments above –
- NO
- JAX
- ARI
- LAR
- CLE
- PHI
- DET
- CHI
- DAL
Finally, here is the core I’m going to be using to start my builds in Small Field/SE. This is subject to change with injury news and comments from coaching staffs, but you can use this as a starting point and pivot off of –
BOL! – Jason O