Last week we received some positive feedback on this article so figured to make it a weekly staple going forward. Weekly, we’ll take a look at the top game environments and what you need to target to chase ceiling fantasy outcomes. We’ll also go over where we think games may fail. In addition the game environments, I’ll also list top stacks and a DK core (usually 4-5 players) where you can start your builds this week!
In tandem with these thoughts, make sure to check out our range of outcome models for projections and ownership – Paydirt NFL Range of Outcomes
WaS/DAL
- This game is as close to a sure thing that we’ve seen so far this season regarding if points will be scored. It’s not a matter of “if” these teams score, it’s a matter of “how many” points do they. And when they do score, where do the points come from?
- This game has a 55 total… 55! That’s insanely high and is by far the highest on the slate. if this game does hit that total or slightly exceed it, you can probably stack other game environments and take pieces here. If this game gets into the mid 60’s or even crosses 70 total points (a 38-35 game here is not out of the question), then you most certainly need multiple pieces from this game. What makes this game unique is the uncertainty on the WAS side with their injuries to Deebo/Terry. And, how you have to make a tough decision if stacking DAL with how close Lamb and Pickens are in price.
- In my opinion, I think the right route is to stack the WAS side and put a focus on Jayden Daniels. His rushing upside and the matchup with this Cowboys secondary who will also be missing Diggs is just too good to pass up. They just let Bryce Young throw for 3 TDs, and just to paint a picture… here are the QB performances the Cowboys have given up this season –
- Bryce Young – 199 yards, 3 TD
- Jalen Hurts – 152 yards, 0 TDs but let him run for 62 yards and 2 rushing TDs
- Russell Wilson – 450 yards and 3 TDs
- Caleb Williams – 298 yards and 4 TDs
- Jordan Love – 337 yards and 3 TDs
- Justin Fields – 283 yards and 2 TDs
- The Cowboys weapons are priced up a bit and while I do think it makes sense to take one of them as well whether it’s Javonte, Ferg, Lamb, Pickens, there is some opportunity cost here especially with Lamb and Pickens. Lamb says he’s full go but we don’t know for sure and if he is full go, is Pickens too expensive? Just makes more sense that if you think this game produces scores you needed to have, you should start with WAS. Also, DAL has been a siv to Running Backs. So starting with Jayden/JCM in hopes you catch TD equity here is sharp. To pain another picture… here are the RB performances the Cowboys have given up this season –
- Saquon – 60 yards and a score (not to mention the 2 to Hurts who averaged 4.5 ypc)
- Skattebo – 45 yards on 11 carries for a score
- Swift – 33 yards
- Jacobs – 86 yards and 2 scores, Emmanuel Wilson 44 yards on 8 carries
- Breece – 113 on 14 carries
- Dowdle – 183 yards and a receiving score
- So Jayden/JCM could be a good start as could Jayden/JCM/Ertz, Jayden/JCM/Cheap Receiver. You can also say forget JCM and take the passing game. No McLaurin and a hobbled Deebo means you can take shots on Chris Moore and McCaffrey here too. Jayden +2 with a DAL bring back feels like the way go or just overstack it. The prices on all the position players on WAS are very nice and still provide you flexibility.
- I know this section has been long winded, but what happens if this game hits the total or goes slightly under? Well, there is an outlier outcome where DAL just stomps but I just don’t see that happening. In that case, Javonte with Ferg can make sense as a mini. Just don’t see a reason to play Dak at his price point with other QBs around him (including Daniels) have rushing upside. If you can find the value to make Dak/Lamb/Pickens work, be my guest…
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
- With the news now that Deebo is out, Luke McCaffrey, Jaylin Lane, and Chris Moore are all elevated. Zach Ertz is now is a top-end TE play too and think he could be used as a one-off if needed. Think there’s a chance you see JCM get a bit more work here too but we just saw these cheap receivers pop when Deebo played. Chris Moore nad McCaffrey will be chalkier punt plays now but for good reason. I’m more interested in Dak stacks now with the cheap bring backs. Also, Flournoy gets a man heavy matchup here and only needs one play to pay off…. no one will play him with Moore and McCaffrey in elevated roles.
IND/LAC
- This is a game with a pretty high team total considering how both of these teams prefer to play. They both prefer to be a bit more methodical and aren’t in a big hurry to run up the score. They also both play a brand of “bend but don’t break” defenses that are designed to force you into a mistake by throwing a bunch of different looks at you. Not a ton of blitzing, not a ton of aggressive man, just solid base defense that will tighten up as you approached the red zone.
- So why do they have a total of 48 here? Well, the Colts are a highly efficient offense despite their middling pass rate but I guess that’s ok when you have Jonathan Fucking Taylor. lol. Their traveling across the country here and I would grade their defensive unit as below average who have been aided by some easy matchups (Week 1 Tua, LV, Titans). When they’ve played competent QBs like Stafford and Jacoby Brissett, they’ve given up points.
- The problem here is that both teams don’t really aim to chuck the ball down field. Herbert still has a banged up offensive line. We “think” Vidal is the guy but you never really know in these committee back-up RB situations (that felt gross as I finished writing that). QJ is back so Herbert has his full compliment of receivers too. Danny Dimes will have some cheap weapons and if you get Dulin out too, you could make a cheap stack. Just don’t know if it’s worth it at the expense of JT.
- I want to try and articulate this correctly because I don’t think this is a game that you should “avoid”. Rather, I don’t think this is a game that you go stack and expect a great return. JT is in an absolute smash spot here and I think the Colts will win this game. So, I do think if you play a Colts piece, it does make sense to play a Chargers piece too. Warren is fine, going Daniel Jones is also fine, but I can’t play Herbert at $6,400. I thnk we see points here but if this game starts to rival WAS/DAL, then you have to assume Herbert slings it. Again, could be wrong, but I don’t see this game shooting out the way you need it to without that.
- My preferred way to approach this game is to either play JT, play JT with Warren, play JT with a Chargers WR. I do think the Chargers WRs, preferrably QJ, are good one off choices.
PHI/MIN
- So this is my absolute favorite sneaky stacking spot of the slate. I think this total at 43.5 is too low and I’ll probably have a bet in on the over. There are numerous ways this game duds but there are also numerous ways this game gets there as both teams can attack each other’s weaknesses on defense and really exploit mismatches.
- Starting with the PHI side, the sentiment on them is pretty poor. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are both sub $6K, Saquon is only $7,700, and Hurts, in my opinion, is priced pretty cheap for his ceiling here considering his TD equity. On the MIN side, we have a cheap Wentz at $5,000, Jordan Mason at $6,200, JJ at $7,600 and Addison feels cheap at $5,100.
- The way this game gets there in my opinion is if the Eagles get pushed and with MIN at home here as a slight dog, I do think we see that happen. PHI has been horrendous against the run and their secondary has been pretty mid and now will Quinyon Mitchell back but we don’t know if he’s 100%. One of Addison, Hockenson, or Mason will get their opportunity to produce and JJ is matchup proof. I actually think if you were to overstack a game this is the one you target.
- MIN in their own right have been a siv to running backs and this could be the Saquon game that we’ve been waiting for. Scheme, matchup, bye next week, it all lines up. But, this OC is a dumb dumb brains so I don’t have faith. I don’t think this is a secondary to be afraid of either and we have STUPID low prices on AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. Add in that Goeddert has had an insane red zone role and you have a pretty concentrated passing game.
- You can make a case to stack either side. I think my prefered way to go if stacking MIN is to take Saquon on the comeback or take Saquon/Goedert in hopes to get Saquon’s ceiling game and some TD equity. If stacking PHI, I’d absolutely play one of Mason or Jefferson in that build. I will have shares of both for absolute certain in MME and our Player ROO seems to think this game has some great ceiling outcome plays at their prices.
CLE/MIA
- I know, I know. Worst weather of all time and this is Kevin Roth’s wet dream. And while I do have MAJOR concerns about Tua being able to breathe here and for Gabriel to do anything of substance. This game actually interests me because of how concentrated opportunity will be for certain plays.
- I have zero interested in stacking this game with the passing game but I do have a TON of interest in 3 plays here across my lineups –
- Judkins
- Waddle
- Harold Fannin Jr.
- I think all 3 of these guys are locked into dependable volume to have a ceiling outcome here at their prices. At first glance on the Bakery, I didn’t want to touch Waddle but after thinking through this more and seeing how much worse CLE’s secondary has been, I think he has opportunity here to beat tight man coverage and have that big play that makes his day. Very similar to how I felt las week about DK Metcalff in this spot who had a 25 yard TD against this press man late in that game. If you think CLE’s defense gets stops and Judkins runs all over him, this is a sick run back option.
- Judkins and Achane are just in such good spots especially considering how poor the Miami run defense is. He is chalk for a reason but I think it’s pretty good chalk. The only way he doesn’t get his 20 touches (which he’s gotten even in bad game scripts) is if CLE finds themselves down early and just can’t establish it. Seems highly unlikely here. Achane is just matchup proof. CLE get pressure at a high rate and MIA gives it up at almost as high of a rate. His passing game work gives him a great floor and I will take Achane any week against a man heavy team. But, he’s expensive for this slate.
- As mentioned before, I don’t think you should stack this game but I don’t think taking a mini of Judkins/Waddle or Waddle/Fannin is a bad mini stack. Also, all 3 of these work as one offs.
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:
- I have now sort of talked myself into ways that this game can be concentrated. This stack will allow you to create unique and high-ceiling builds. It doesn’t touch the other stacking environments I mentioned, but I absolutely will have some Gabriel stacks in large field MME. The weather seems like it will lighten up and the combo of players in this game is so cheap, you can pay up at some key positional spots. Preferably, Gabriel/Fannin Jr./Judkins.
CHI/NO
- Watch the weather here but this is a game that I definitely would like to get exposure to, but I’m going to set some very strict parameters around what I do.
- On The Bakery, Tribe brought up a really big mistake that a lot of DFS players make and it’s one-offing a WR2-3 in your lineups. And I can’t think of a team where you should only play secondary pieces in stacks than CHI. I will not touch any of DJ Moore, Zaccheaus, Kmet, or Burden if I’m not playing Caleb. Caleb has been ok enough where he’s not losing them games, btu he hasn’t exactly been a great fantasy QB who can support a heavy, aerial assault. With the exception of Dallas (which I mean…. Pablo can throw for a few tuddies against them), he’s broken 20 DK points once and has needed a rushing score to propel his fantasy point production. The Saints could remedy that for sure but I’m not touching ANY of those guys without taking them in a Caleb double stack.
- On the Saints side, I do feel relatively similar about Shaheed and to an extent even Olave who is just a chalk monster every week because of his regression stats. But, Rattler has been servicable and this CHI defense can make most offenses look good. Don’t love the weather angle here either but I won’t be playing any Saints receiving options besides “maybe” Olave.
- This is a full stack only spot for me for both passing games. Caleb’s been too inconsistent for me to consider a one off from CHI. If stacking, I think it’s absolutely crucial to take someone from the other side. If stacking NO, take Swift or Odunze. If stacking CHi, take Kamara, Hill, or Olave.
- Favorite overall pieces in this game as someone who leans on the side of the weather being a difference maker are Kamara, Swift, and Taysom Hill.
GB/ARI
- If (and when), we get Brissett officially named the starter, I will be heavily invested here. a $4,500 Brissett against a gutless coward like LaFleur is exactly what the doctor ordered. The way these two teams play defense is what is enticing me to invest here from more thna just taking Brissett…. let me explain…..
- Gannon has had a reputation and style of play since his days as the Eagles DC where he essentially shuts down his defense when they have a bit of a lead. I think his strategy is to try and play a bend but don’t break, but it’s essentially a stupid prevent defense and allow you to the move the ball. LaFleur is incredibly similar. I went on a bit of a tirade on The Bakery because this guy thinks his team needs to be tougher rather than just run up the score on people. Absolute jackass who is a fantastic gameplanner and playcaller.
- Stacking this from the ARI side with McBride and/or MHJ feels pretty sharp. You can bring it back with Jacobs too. We saw this with Flacco last week and I feel a bit more confident with ARI being home here that they can push GB late. The most likely way this game goes nuts is if Josh Jacobs goes nuts and then you get some fight from ARI’s passing game.
- Another way this gets there (rather unlikely, but is worth mentioning) is if ARI somehow is the one laying the wood early and then they take the foot off the gas, then Love Stacks are in play but we know Green Bay does not care to throw and self-admittedly does not want overfeed any one pass catcher.
- Stack ARI with Jacobs is my preferred way to go. The way this game duds is that ARI and GB both suck eggs on offense but I think GB establishes it early here.
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
- I’m a bit concerned about the status of Josh Jacobs here with the elevation of Pierre Strong. I would set aside a portion of your rosters (if you’re only playing small field, SE, 3-max, please ignore) for you to be able to swap off of Jacobs to one of Emmanuel Wilson or a GB receiver. I know the pricing is a bit funky, but being that there are a TON of the plays we want to get to in the late games, it’s worth it. Emmanuel Wilson could be an ELITE pivot off of these cheap, chalk WAS WRs.
Here are my favorite stacks of the week heading into Sunday (in no particular order) –
- Washington
- Dallas
- Arizona
- Philadelphia
- Kansas City
- Denver
- MInnesota
- Chicago
- Indianapolis
Finally, here is the core I’m going to be using to start my builds. This is subject to change with injury news and comments from coaching staffs, but you can use this as a starting point and pivot off of –
UPDATED CORE
BOL! – Jason O