MLB DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

jshabazz87

1 year ago

MLB DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NBA DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the MLB DFS Range of Outcomes and the MLB Contest Simulations.

MLB Pitcher Ceiling Data Breakdown

Michael King (SDP): Listed with a Salary of $9500, a Median projection of 18.05, and a Ceiling projection of 45.95. He has a 15% rate of finishing as the top fantasy scorer in simulations and a projected Ownership (Own%) of 47.3%. His Ceiling projection is the highest among the players listed in this source.
Colin Rea (CHC): Has a Salary of $6800, a Median projection of 17.88, and a Ceiling projection of 43.11. His rate of finishing as the top fantasy scorer is 15%, matching Michael King, but at a significantly lower Salary. His Own% is projected at 16.1%.
Tyler Mahle (TEX): Shown with a Salary of $9200, a Median projection of 17.23, and a Ceiling projection of 42.33. He has a 12% rate of finishing as the top fantasy scorer and a projected Own% of 24.7%. His stats indicate high potential upside with a strong, albeit not leading, Top_finish rate.
David Peterson (NYM): Listed with a Salary of $8200, a Median projection of 16.92, and a Ceiling projection of 39.85. His rate of finishing as the top fantasy scorer is 10%, and his projected Own% is 16.1%. He represents a mid-range Salary option with a double-digit Top_finish rate and a Ceiling just shy of 40.
Paul Skenes (PIT): Has the highest Salary among this group at $9700, with a Median projection of 16.21 and a Ceiling projection of 41.14. His rate of finishing as the top fantasy scorer is 8%, and his projected Own% is 25.7%. Despite the highest Salary and projected ownership among these five, his Top_finish rate is lower than others listed

MLB Pitcher Ownership Data Breakdown

Michael King (SDP): Has a Salary of $9500, a Median projection of 18.05, and a Ceiling projection of 45.95. His rate of finishing as the top fantasy scorer is 15%. His projected Own% is 47.3%, which is the highest among the players listed in this source, suggesting he is a very popular option.
Paul Skenes (PIT): Listed with the highest Salary in this source at $9700, a Median projection of 16.21, and a Ceiling projection of 41.14. His Top_finish rate is 8%. His projected Own% is 25.7%, the second highest among this group, indicating significant public interest.
Tyler Mahle (TEX): Shown with a Salary of $9200, a Median projection of 17.23, and a Ceiling projection of 42.33. He has a 12% Top_finish rate. His projected Own% is 24.7%, very close to Skenes’ ownership, suggesting similar popularity despite a slightly lower Salary.
Grant Holmes (ATL): Has a Salary of $7400, a Median projection of 16.12, and a Ceiling projection of 40.99. His Top_finish rate is 7%. His projected Own% is 17.1%, which is lower than the top three, potentially offering leverage despite a solid Ceiling projection.
Colin Rea (CHC): Listed with the lowest Salary in this source at $6800, a Median projection of 17.88, and a Ceiling projection of 43.11. His Top_finish rate is 15%. His projected Own% is 16.1%. He has a low ownership rate relative to his high Top_finish rate and Ceiling projection, which could make him an attractive option

MLB Hitter Ceiling Data Breakdown

Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, CHC): He has the highest listed Ceiling projection in this dataset at 37.48. His Median projection is 8.96. He also has a high 2x% at 28% and a strong Top_5_finish% at 28%, the highest in this specific data. His salary is $4900, and his projected ownership is 17.4%. This profile suggests a player with significant upside and a high probability of appearing on winning rosters in tournaments.
Kyle Tucker (OF, CHC): Tucker has the second-highest Ceiling projection at 36.52 and a high Median projection of 8.75. His salary is high at $6300. Despite the high Ceiling, his Top_5_finish% is relatively low at 4%, and his 2x% is 25%. His projected ownership is 21.9%. He offers high-end potential but might be slightly less likely to hit his absolute peak compared to Crow-Armstrong, according to these specific metrics.
Aaron Judge (OF, NYY): Judge has the highest salary among all hitters listed in this source at $6500. His Ceiling projection is 30.64, and his Median is 7.67. His Top_5_finish% is very low at 1%, and his 2x% is 11%. However, his projected ownership is very high at 24.0%, the highest among players in this list. This indicates high popularity despite lower relative upside and value metrics in this specific projection set compared to other top players.
Evan Carter (OF, TEX): Carter presents an interesting value option with a lower salary of $3500. His Ceiling projection is solid at 33.91. His Median is 7.94. He has a very high 2x% at 48%, the highest in this dataset, indicating a strong chance of exceeding 2x value relative to his salary. His Top_5_finish% is 16%, and his projected ownership is 15.5%. This profile suggests high upside potential at a lower cost and reasonable ownership.
Juan Soto (OF, NYM): Soto’s salary is $5100. His Ceiling projection is 31.66, and his Median is 7.74. His Top_5_finish% is 10%, and his 2x% is 13%. Notably, his projected ownership is quite low at 4.8%, the lowest among the players listed in this source. This low ownership combined with his known real-world capabilities and decent projections could make him a compelling leverage play.

MLB Hitter Value Data Breakdown

Alexander Canario (OF, PIT): Canario has the second-highest 2x% at 61%. His salary is the lowest in this dataset at $2400. His Ceiling projection is 24.95, and his Median is 6.47. His Top_5_finish% is 3%. His projected ownership is also very low at 1.8%. Similar to Maldonado, he offers a high probability of returning value relative to his minimal salary, albeit with a lower absolute ceiling.
Jon Berti (3B, CHC): Berti has a high 2x% at 58% and a salary of $2700. His Ceiling projection is 21.52, and his Median is 6.91. His Top_5_finish% is 6%. His projected ownership is 9.9%, which is the highest ownership figure among players in this source. This indicates he is a popular value play, likely due to his high 2x% and low salary.
Christian Koss (2B, SFG): Koss has a high 2x% at 56% with a very low salary of $2200. His Ceiling (15.78) and Median (5.70) projections are lower than others on this list. His Top_5_finish% is 0%. His projected ownership is 4.0%. He offers a high chance of 2x value at a near-minimum salary but with very limited absolute upside.
Joc Pederson (1B, TEX): Pederson has a 2x% of 50% and a salary of $2600. His Ceiling is 18.01, and his Median is 6.05. His Top_5_finish% is 2%. His projected ownership is 12.4%, the second highest in this source. He represents a veteran player with a history of power, offering a decent chance of hitting value relative to his salary, and is moderately popular as a value option

MLB Stacks 8+ Data Breakdown

New York Mets (NYM): They have the lowest Own% in this dataset at 24.1%. Despite this lower ownership, they are projected with a 21% chance to score 8 or more runs, which is tied for the second-highest percentage in this source. Their average salary is the third highest among the listed teams at 4516.67. This combination of decent offensive potential and low ownership could make them an interesting contrarian stack.
San Diego Padres (SDP): With an Own% of 27.3%, the Padres are the second least owned team in this data. Their projected chance of scoring 8+ runs is 19%. They have the highest average player salary among all teams listed at 5233.33. Despite the high salary, their relatively low ownership compared to their offensive projection might warrant consideration for tournaments.
San Francisco Giants (SFG): The Giants have an Own% of 35.9%, placing them third lowest in this dataset. Their projection for scoring 8+ runs is 18%. Their average player salary is the second lowest at 4166.67. This profile suggests a team with moderate offensive potential at a lower salary cost, also coming in at relatively lower ownership.
Seattle Mariners (SEA): The Mariners show an Own% of 37.3%. Their projection to score 8+ runs is 16%. Their average salary is similar to the Giants at 4150.00. They tie with the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees for the lowest 8+ Runs% in this specific dataset. Their low ownership might be justified by the lower offensive projection, but could still be part of a strategy in certain contest types.
Atlanta Braves (ATL): The Braves have an Own% of 73.9%. While higher than the previous teams, it’s still on the lower end compared to the most owned teams like the Cubs (110.6%) or Rangers (102.8%). They boast a 20% chance of scoring 8+ runs, the third highest percentage in the data. Their average salary is 4383.33. The Braves offer solid offensive upside with ownership that isn’t as prohibitive as the top two owned teams.