MLB DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

MLB DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NBA DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the MLB DFS Range of Outcomes and the MLB Contest Simulations.

MLB Pitcher Ceiling Data Breakdown

• MacKenzie Gore (WAS): Gore has the highest Ceiling projection in this source at 49.98. His Salary is $10000, and his Median is 19.45. He has a 16% chance of being the top fantasy scorer (“Top_finish”). His projected ownership is 14.2%. Gore offers the highest potential upside among the pitchers listed, making him a strong candidate for tournament lineups, especially given his moderate ownership projection.
• Shane Smith (CHW): Smith has the second highest Ceiling projection at 48.94. His Salary is $8000, and his Median is 19.92. His Top_finish rate is 18%, which is the second highest rate in this source, trailing only Max Fried. His projected ownership is 7.1%. Smith provides a high ceiling and a very solid chance of being the top scorer at a lower salary than Gore or Fried, and with very low ownership.
• Max Fried (NYY): Fried has a Ceiling projection of 48.34. He has the highest Salary in the source at $10500. His Median projection is the highest at 20.20. Fried has the highest Top_finish rate at 22%. His projected ownership is 9.3%. Fried is a top-tier pitching option with the highest Median and Top_finish rate, offering a very high floor and a strong chance of being the slate’s best pitcher, despite the highest salary.
• Dylan Cease (SDP): Cease’s Ceiling projection is 46.79. His Salary is $8400, and his Median is 18.67. His Top_finish rate is 12%. His projected ownership is 36.9%. Cease has a high Ceiling and a respectable Top_finish rate at a mid-range salary, but comes with significantly higher projected ownership compared to the other pitchers listed here. This high ownership might require strategic consideration in large tournaments.
• Kyle Harrison (SFG): Harrison has a Ceiling projection of 42.62. His Salary is the lowest among these five pitchers at $6600. His Median is 17.76, and his Top_finish rate is 11%. His projected ownership is 7.1%. Harrison offers a solid Ceiling and Top_finish rate relative to his low salary, making him a potential value play with upside at very low ownership

MLB Pitcher Ownership Data Breakdown

• Griffin Canning (NYM): Canning has the highest projected ownership in this source at 40.2%. His Salary is $7400. His Median projection is 17.36, and his Ceiling is 42.85. His Top_finish rate is 6%. Canning is projected to be heavily owned, suggesting he is seen as a popular option, potentially due to his salary or matchup, though his Ceiling and Top_finish rate are lower than other high-priced options in other sources.
• Dylan Cease (SDP): Cease has the second highest projected ownership at 36.9%. His Salary is $8400. His Median is 18.67, and his Ceiling is 46.79. His Top_finish rate is 12%. Cease is also projected to be highly owned, offering higher Ceiling and Top_finish rates than Canning, which may justify his higher ownership.
• Lance McCullers (HOU): McCullers has a Salary of $8500. His projected ownership is 27.4%. His Median projection is 12.19, and his Ceiling is 31.03. His Top_finish rate is 0%. McCullers has a notable projected ownership despite having the lowest Median, Ceiling, and Top_finish rates among the pitchers listed in this source. This discrepancy between ownership and performance metrics could indicate a potential leverage opportunity to fade him in tournaments.
• MacKenzie Gore (WAS): Gore’s projected ownership is 14.2%. His Salary is $10000. His Median is 19.45, and his Ceiling is 49.98. His Top_finish rate is 16%. Gore appears to be moderately owned despite having the highest Ceiling and second-highest Median and Top_finish rate in this source, offering a strong combination of upside and relatively lower ownership compared to Canning and Cease.
• Max Fried (NYY): Fried’s projected ownership is 9.3%. His Salary is $10500. His Median is 20.20, and his Ceiling is 48.34. His Top_finish rate is 22%. Fried has the lowest projected ownership among these five pitchers, despite having the highest Salary, Median, and Top_finish rate. This makes him a potentially appealing option for those looking for a high-upside, low-owned ace

MLB Hitter Ceiling Data Breakdown

• Ketel Marte (ARI 2B): Marte has the highest Ceiling projection in the source at 49.25. His Salary is $5500, and his Median projection is 9.96. He has a 28% chance of finishing as a top 5 fantasy scorer and a 26% chance of scoring more than two times his salary divided by 1000 (2x%). His projected ownership is 8.6%. Marte represents a player with significant upside potential, indicated by his high Ceiling and Top_5_finish rate, at a relatively modest ownership level.
• Corbin Carroll (ARI OF): Carroll’s Ceiling projection is 48.02, the second highest in the source. He has the highest Salary among these five players at $5700. His Median projection is 9.83. Carroll’s Top_5_finish rate is 25%, and his 2x% rate is 20%. His projected ownership is 15.2%. As a teammate of Ketel Marte on the ARI Diamondbacks, who have the highest 8+ Runs percentage in the “8 Plus Data” source, Carroll also offers high upside.
• Eugenio Suarez (ARI 3B): Another ARI player, Suarez has a Ceiling projection of 44.96. His Salary is $4700, and his Median projection is 8.89. He has an 18% chance of a Top_5_finish and a high 34% chance for 2x%. His projected ownership is 5.1%. Suarez offers a strong Ceiling projection and a high 2x% rate relative to his salary, making him a potential value play with significant upside, especially given his team’s high scoring projection. His ownership is notably low among the listed players.
• Rafael Devers (BOS 3B): Devers has a Ceiling projection of 41.22. His Salary is $5400, and his Median projection is 9.14. He has a 17% chance of a Top_5_finish and a 19% chance for 2x%. His projected ownership is 11.0%. Devers, playing for the BOS Red Sox who have a high 8+ Runs percentage, combines a solid ceiling with a reasonable price for a player with his upside.
• Zach Neto (LAA SS): Neto’s Ceiling projection is 40.34. His Salary is $5200, and his Median projection is 9.04. He has a 17% chance of a Top_5_finish and a 21% chance for 2x%. His projected ownership is 5.4%. As a player on the LAA Angels, who have the second-highest 8+ Runs percentage in the “8 Plus Data” source, Neto offers upside potential at a relatively low ownership level compared to his performance metrics

MLB Hitter Value Data Breakdown

• LaMonte Wade (LAA 1B): Wade has a low Salary of $2000, making him one of the most affordable players in the source. His Median projection is 6.34, and his Ceiling is 20.58. Despite the lower projections, he has the highest 2x% rate in the source at 74%, indicating a very high probability of exceeding 2x his salary in fantasy points. His projected ownership is 5.2%. Wade is a prime example of a potential value play, offering high salary relief and a strong chance of hitting value at low ownership.
• Marcus Semien (TEX 2B): Semien has a higher Salary ($3000) compared to many others in this source. His Median is 7.35, and his Ceiling is 30.01. He has a 3% chance of a Top_5_finish and a 55% chance for 2x%. His projected ownership is 15.0%. Semien offers a solid combination of a decent Ceiling and a high 2x% rate relative to his higher salary point.
• Starling Marte (NYM OF): Marte’s Salary is $3400, one of the higher salaries in this source. His Median is 7.91, and his Ceiling is 31.57. He has a significant 8% chance of a Top_5_finish and a 54% chance for 2x%. His projected ownership is 5.2%. Marte stands out in this source with a relatively high Top_5_finish rate and a solid Ceiling and 2x% rate for his salary, making him a valuable option with upside at low ownership.
• Roman Anthony (BOS OF): Anthony appears in both “Hitter Ceiling” and “Hitter Value” sources. In this source, his Salary is $4000. His Median is 8.84, and his Ceiling is 33.60. He has a 15% chance of a Top_5_finish and a 50% chance for 2x%. His projected ownership is 1.2%. Anthony has a high Top_5_finish rate relative to players with similar metrics in this source and an extremely low ownership projection.
• Jo Adell (LAA OF): Adell’s Salary is $3200. His Median is 7.48, and his Ceiling is 33.11. He has a 5% chance of a Top_5_finish and a high 51% chance for 2x%. His projected ownership is 2.3%. Adell offers a good Ceiling and a high 2x% rate for his price point, coupled with very low projected ownership

MLB Stacks 8+ Data Breakdown

• ATH (Athletics): This team has the lowest projected ownership percentage in the source at 14.68%. Their chance of scoring 8 or more runs is 21%. Their average DFS salary is $4150.00. Despite having one of the lower “8+ Runs” percentages among the listed teams, their significantly low projected ownership could make them an interesting leverage play if stacking hitters from this team.
• MIN (Twins): The Twins have the second-lowest projected ownership at 19.98%. They have a 24% chance of scoring 8 or more runs, which is comparable to teams with much higher projected ownership, such as the Mets (NYM) or Padres (SDP). Their average salary is $4083.33, which is among the lower average salaries in the source. This combination of lower ownership and reasonable 8+ Runs potential could highlight undervalued stacking opportunities.
• SDP (Padres): The Padres are projected to be owned at 22.20%. They have a 21% chance of scoring 8 or more runs, the same percentage as the Athletics and Rays (TBR). Their average salary is $4183.33. While their 8+ Runs percentage is not the highest, their ownership is relatively low compared to teams like the Diamondbacks (ARI) or Angels (LAA) with higher 8+ Runs percentages.
• BOS (Red Sox): The Red Sox have a projected ownership of 25.57%. They possess a 27% chance of scoring 8 or more runs, which is the third-highest percentage in the source, trailing only ARI and LAA. Their average salary is $4183.33. This presents a potential opportunity to gain exposure to a team with a high scoring projection at a moderate ownership level compared to the top teams.
• NYM (Mets): The Mets are projected for 28.74% ownership. They have a 25% chance of scoring 8 or more runs. Their average salary is $4400.00. Their metrics are relatively balanced compared to other teams in the source, with a decent 8+ Runs percentage and ownership that falls in the lower half of the list

MLB DFS Summary Table