MLB DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

jshabazz87

1 year ago

MLB DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NBA DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the MLB DFS Range of Outcomes and the MLB Contest Simulations.

Pitcher Ceiling Data Breakdown

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP, LAD): Yamamoto has a high Salary of $9700 with a Median of 18.47 and a Ceiling projection of 45.16. His Top_finish rate is 16%, indicating a strong chance of being the top-scoring pitcher. His Own% is a moderate 14.11%, suggesting he is being considered but not overwhelmingly so. His high ceiling and solid top finish probability make him a strong GPP option.
Aaron Nola (SP, PHI): Nola’s Salary is $9000, with a Median of 18.32 and a Ceiling of 43.21. His Top_finish rate is high at 19%, the best among this group. His Own% is a relatively low 9.77%. His high ceiling and top finish probability combined with lower ownership could make him an excellent contrarian play in tournaments.
David Festa (SP, MIN): Festa has a lower Salary of $6500 with a Median of 16.62 and a Ceiling of 40.19. His Top_finish rate is 8%, respectable for his price range. His Own% is moderately high at 19.41%, suggesting he is being recognized as a value play with decent upside.
Bryce Miller (SP, SEA): Miller’s Salary is $8500, with a Median of 16.55 and a Ceiling of 40.10. His Top_finish rate is 9%. His Own% is 15.20%, placing him in the middle range of ownership among these pitchers. He offers a solid ceiling at a mid-range price and moderate ownership.
Nick Pivetta (SP, SDP): Pivetta has a Salary of $9100, a Median of 16.36, and a Ceiling of 40.05. His Top_finish rate is 8%. His Own% is very high at 41.80%, making him one of the most popular pitching options despite a ceiling slightly lower than some others in this price range. His high ownership suggests he is perceived as a relatively safe option.

Pitcher Ownership Data Breakdown

Jacob deGrom (SP, TEX): deGrom has a high Salary of $9500 and a very high Own% of 47.77%. However, his Median is relatively lower at 14.64, and his Ceiling is 37.68 with a low Top_finish rate of 3%. His extremely high ownership despite these metrics suggests that other factors (perhaps reputation or recent performance not reflected here) are driving his popularity, making him a potential fade candidate in tournaments.
Nick Pivetta (SP, SDP): Pivetta appears again with a Salary of $9100 and a high Own% of 41.80%. His Median is 16.36, Ceiling is 40.05, and Top_finish rate is 8%. His high ownership aligns with a decent ceiling and top finish probability, suggesting he is a popular, relatively safe option.
David Festa (SP, MIN): Festa has a lower Salary of $6500 and a moderately high Own% of 19.41%. His Median is 16.62, Ceiling is 40.19, and Top_finish rate is 8%. His ownership likely stems from his lower salary paired with a good ceiling and top finish potential, making him a popular value play.
Bryce Miller (SP, SEA): Miller, with a Salary of $8500, has an Own% of 15.20%. His Median is 16.55, Ceiling is 40.10, and Top_finish rate is 9%. His moderate ownership reflects a balance of a decent ceiling and top finish probability at a mid-range salary.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP, LAD): Yamamoto also appears here with a high Salary of $9700 and an Own% of 14.11%. His strong Median of 18.47, high Ceiling of 45.16, and good Top_finish rate of 16% justify his ownership as a high-upside, albeit expensive, option.

Hitter Ceiling Data Breakdown

Aaron Judge (OF, NYY): Judge has a Salary of $6500 and a Median projection of 8.89. His 23% Top_5_finish rate indicates a strong probability of a high-scoring performance, and his 4.4% 2x% suggests a decent floor relative to his salary. Despite this upside, his Own% is relatively low at 4.07%. This lower ownership, despite his high ceiling potential, could make him a valuable tournament option.
Shohei Ohtani (1B/OF, LAD): Ohtani, with a Salary of $6400 and a Median of 8.90, also presents significant upside with a 21% Top_5_finish rate. His 3.7% 2x% is slightly lower than Judge’s. His Own% is 5.47%, slightly higher than Judge but still relatively modest for a player with his talent and potential. His dual position eligibility adds to his value.
Francisco Lindor (SS, NYM): Lindor’s Salary is $5100 with a Median of 8.01. His Top_5_finish rate is 16%, and his 2x% is significantly higher at 16%, suggesting a good balance of upside and a solid floor. His Own% is relatively high for this group at 12.30%, indicating he is a popular option, likely due to his consistent production and ceiling potential at a mid-range salary.
Mike Trout (OF, LAA): Trout has a Salary of $5600 and a Median of 8.28. His Top_5_finish rate is 15%, and his 2x% is 7.9%. Similar to Judge and Ohtani, his Own% is relatively low for a player of his caliber at 4.44%. This could be due to various factors, but his potential for a high ceiling at low ownership makes him an intriguing tournament play.
Lawrence Butler (OF, ATH): Butler, with a Salary of $4900 and a Median of 8.18, has a 14% Top_5_finish rate and a high 17.2% 2x%. His Own% is very low at 2.63%. His combination of a decent Top_5_finish probability, high likelihood of exceeding value (2x%), and low ownership makes him a compelling value play with upside, particularly in larger field tournaments.

Hitter Value Data Breakdown

Rowdy Tellez (1B, SEA): Tellez has a very low Salary of $2100 and a Median of 6.57. His 2x% is exceptionally high at 72%, indicating a very strong likelihood of exceeding value. Despite this, his Own% is low at 1.43%. His low salary and high probability of reaching value make him an excellent punt option to free up salary for higher-priced stars, especially in cash games.
Brandon Lockridge (OF, SDP): With a Salary of $2400 and a Median of 7.33, Lockridge also boasts a high 2x% of 72%. His Own% is slightly higher than Tellez but still low at 2.92%. Similar to Tellez, his combination of a low salary and high probability of exceeding value makes him a strong value play.
Tim Tawa (2B, ARI): Tawa has a Salary of $2300 and a Median of 6.98. His 2x% is 71%, just slightly below Tellez and Lockridge. His Own% is 2.59%, also quite low. He presents another excellent low-cost option with a high chance of returning value, offering salary relief and potential upside.
Jason Heyward (OF, SDP): Heyward’s Salary is $2500 with a Median of 6.73. His 2x% is still very high at 65%, and his Own% is a bit higher than the previous three at 2.80%. He continues the trend of low-salary players with a strong probability of exceeding value, making him a viable punt or value play.
Luisangel Acuna (2B/SS, NYM): Acuna has a slightly higher Salary of $2900 and a Median of 7.38. His 2x% is 59%, still quite strong, and his Own% is 2.59%. While his salary is a bit higher than the others in this group, his continued high probability of reaching value, coupled with potential upside from his dual position eligibility, makes him a solid value option.

Stacks 8+ Data Breakdown

NYM (New York Mets): The Mets have a high 22% in the “8+ Runs” category, a solid 55% win percentage, a moderate 15% in “Top Score”, and a high 63.8% projected ownership. Their high run projection and decent top score probability make them an appealing stack, explaining their higher ownership. However, this high ownership might make them less appealing for large-field GPPs.
SEA (Seattle Mariners): The Mariners show a lower 15% in “8+ Runs” but a strong 61% win percentage, a lower 11% in “Top Score”, and a very high 74.2% projected ownership. Despite lower run and top score projections compared to the Mets, their significantly higher ownership suggests they might be perceived as a safer win or have favorable individual player pricing not visible here. This high ownership with lower run potential could make them an overvalued stack.
ARI (Arizona Diamondbacks): Arizona has a 15% for “8+ Runs”, a 57% win percentage, a 10% for “Top Score”, and a very high 94.9% projected ownership. Similar to the Mariners, their ownership is extremely high despite relatively modest run and top score projections. This warrants further investigation into individual player values or matchups, as their ownership seems disproportionate to their run-scoring potential as a team.
MIA (Miami Marlins): Miami has a lower 14% in “8+ Runs”, a lower 45% win percentage, a 10% for “Top Score”, and a very low 17.2% projected ownership. Their lower projections across the board likely contribute to their low ownership. However, in GPPs, their low ownership could make them an interesting contrarian stack if they outperform expectations.
CHC (Chicago Cubs): The Cubs show a 14% for “8+ Runs”, a 55% win percentage, an 11% for “Top Score”, and a low 21.2% projected ownership. Despite decent run and win projections, their ownership remains low. This discrepancy could present a value opportunity in tournaments, as they have the potential to score well without being heavily owned.