MLB DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

jshabazz87

12 months ago

MLB DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the MLB DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the MLB DFS Range of Outcomes and the MLB Contest Simulations.

MLB Pitcher Ceiling Data Breakdown

Tarik Skubal (DET): Skubal has the highest salary at $11,600 and the highest ceiling projection at 54.08, indicating significant top-end potential. His median projection is 23.56. He also leads in Top_finish rate at 28%, suggesting he is the most likely among this group to be the top fantasy scorer. Despite his high salary, his 2x% is 46%. His high Own% of 60.4% suggests he is a very popular choice for fantasy players.
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): Sanchez is priced at $9,800 with a strong median projection of 22.71 and a ceiling projection of 49.60. His Top_finish rate is 27%, nearly matching Skubal’s, making him another high-upside option. Notably, his 2x% is 64%, which is the highest among these five players, indicating a very strong chance to return good value relative to his salary. His Own% is 8.6%, suggesting he might be a less popular, yet potentially high-value, pick.
Joe Ryan (MIN): With a salary of $9,100, Joe Ryan has a median projection of 19.40 and a ceiling projection of 43.02. His Top_finish rate is 11%, and his 2x% is 51%, which is respectable, showing a solid chance of exceeding value. His Own% is 5.6%, pointing to lower projected ownership.
Tanner Bibee (CLE): Bibee presents a lower-cost option at a salary of $7,600. His median projection is 18.27 and ceiling projection is 40.19. His Top_finish rate is 6%. However, he boasts a high 2x% of 63%, second only to Sanchez, indicating strong value potential relative to his lower salary. His Own% is 15.9%.
Luis Castillo (SEA): Castillo is valued at a salary of $8,100. His median projection is 18.44, and his ceiling projection is 39.45. His Top_finish rate is 6%, similar to Bibee. His 2x% is 58%, which is quite good for his price point. His Own% is very low at 3.4%, making him a potential “under-the-radar” play

MLB Pitcher Ownership Data Breakdown

Tarik Skubal (DET): Skubal stands out with the highest salary at $11,600 and also the highest Own% at 60.4%, making him the most popular pitcher in this dataset. His high projected ownership is likely due to his robust projections, including a median of 23.56 and a ceiling of 54.08, along with a leading Top_finish rate of 28%. His 2x% is 46%, indicating a solid chance to exceed value.
Zac Gallen (ARI): Priced at $8,000, Gallen has a moderate Own% of 26.4%. His median projection is 16.57 and ceiling projection is 37.00. His Top_finish rate is 2%, which is lower compared to some higher-priced options. His 2x% is 46%, matching Skubal’s, suggesting a reasonable likelihood of returning value.
Tanner Bibee (CLE): Bibee has a lower salary of $7,600 and an Own% of 15.9%, positioning him as a moderately owned pitcher. His median projection is 18.27 and his ceiling projection is 40.19. He has a Top_finish rate of 6% and a strong 2x% of 63%, implying good value potential relative to his salary and lower ownership.
Hunter Brown (HOU): Brown is a higher-salary option at $10,000 but comes with a relatively low Own% of 11.1%. His median projection is 16.38 and his ceiling projection is 37.76. His Top_finish rate is 3%, and his 2x% is 20%, which is lower than others, suggesting less consistent value relative to his salary. His low ownership combined with a decent ceiling might appeal to those looking for a contrarian play.
Edward Cabrera (MIA): Cabrera is priced at $8,200 and has the lowest Own% among these five players at 9.4%. His median projection is 15.54 and his ceiling projection is 34.46. He has a Top_finish rate of 2% and a 2x% of 35%. His low ownership makes him an interesting GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) option, especially if he hits his ceiling

MLB Pitcher Value Data Breakdown

Kai-Wei Teng (SFG): Teng stands out with the lowest salary at $5,100, making him a significant value play. Despite a 0% Top_finish rate, his median projection is 14.36 and his ceiling projection is 30.92. Crucially, he has an impressive 2x% of 75%, the highest among the pitchers in this source, indicating a very high probability of scoring at least two times his salary/1000. His Own% is very low at 1.0%, suggesting he could be a strong, low-owned value pick.
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): Sanchez, with a salary of $9,800, shows high upside and strong value. He has a median projection of 22.71 and a ceiling projection of 49.60. His Top_finish rate is 27%, one of the highest in the source. With a 2x% of 64%, he consistently provides strong returns relative to his cost. His Own% is 8.6%, offering a good blend of high projection, strong value, and moderate ownership.
Tanner Bibee (CLE): Bibee is a mid-salary option at $7,600. His median projection is 18.27 and ceiling projection is 40.19. He has a 6% Top_finish rate and a robust 2x% of 63%, indicating excellent value potential for his price. His Own% is 15.9%, making him a relatively popular, but still high-value, selection.
Luis Castillo (SEA): Castillo, priced at $8,100, offers solid value with a median projection of 18.44 and a ceiling projection of 39.45. His Top_finish rate is 6%, and his 2x% is 58%, indicating a strong likelihood of providing more than two times his salary in fantasy points. His low Own% of 3.4% makes him an attractive option for those seeking differentiation in lineups.

Joe Ryan (MIN): Ryan is a higher-salary pitcher at $9,100. He has a median projection of 19.40 and a ceiling projection of 43.02. His Top_finish rate is 11%, and his 2x% is 51%, which is a respectable value for his price point. His Own% is 5.6%, suggesting he could be a good “pivot” play from higher-owned pitchers with similar projections

MLB Hitter Ceiling Data Breakdown

Shohei Ohtani (LAD): Ohtani has the highest salary at $6,600 and a substantial ceiling projection of 46.54. He leads this group with an impressive Top_5_finish rate of 49%, indicating he is nearly half as likely as any player on the slate to be a top-5 fantasy scorer. His median projection is 13.85, and his 2x% is 47%, suggesting strong value for his high cost. His Own% is 15.9%, making him a popular choice for his elite upside.
Corbin Carroll (ARI): Priced at $6,300, Carroll boasts a slightly higher ceiling projection of 46.90 than Ohtani, though his Top_5_finish rate is 35%. His median projection is 12.39, and his 2x% is 40%. His Own% is 9.4%, offering a strong high-ceiling option with slightly lower ownership compared to Ohtani.
Ketel Marte (ARI): Marte, at a salary of $6,000, presents a compelling high-ceiling option with a ceiling projection of 47.11, which is the highest among these three, and very competitive within the source. His median projection is 11.56, and his Top_5_finish rate is 28%. His 2x% is 37%, and his Own% is 9.4%, identical to Carroll’s, making him another high-upside play with moderate ownership.
Nick Kurtz (ATH): With a salary of $6,200, Kurtz stands out with the highest ceiling projection in the source at 47.24. However, his Top_5_finish rate is lower at 21%, and his 2x% is also lower at 25%, suggesting that while his absolute ceiling is high, he may reach it less frequently or provide less consistent value than others. His Own% is 8.4%.
Jose Altuve (HOU): Altuve is a more affordable high-ceiling option at a salary of $5,300. His ceiling projection is very high at 47.31, which is the highest among these five players, making him an exceptional value for his ceiling. His median projection is 10.75, and his Top_5_finish rate is 18%. Importantly, his 2x% is 41%, indicating solid value, and his Own% is very low at 2.4%, making him a potentially high-leverage GPP play.

MLB Hitter Value Data Breakdown

Davis Schneider (TOR): Schneider is a prime value candidate with a very low salary of $3,000. His median projection is 8.32, and his ceiling projection is 31.95. Crucially, he boasts the highest 2x% among the players in this source at 67%, indicating a very high probability of scoring more than two times his salary in fantasy points. His Top_5_finish rate is 2%, and his Own% is 7.8%, making him a strong, relatively low-owned value play.
Jerar Encarnacion (SFG): Encarnacion is the cheapest player in this selection at a salary of $2,600. Despite a Top_5_finish rate of 0%, his median projection is 6.64 and ceiling projection is 19.57. His 2x% is 59%, which is exceptionally high for his minimal salary, making him an attractive punt option. His Own% is also very low at 1.0%, ideal for those seeking differentiation.
Jeremy Pena (HOU): Pena, at a salary of $3,900, offers solid value with a median projection of 9.38 and a ceiling projection of 37.19. He has a respectable Top_5_finish rate of 7% and a strong 2x% of 59%. His Own% is 7.2%, suggesting he’s a reliable mid-tier value option that isn’t excessively popular.
Luke Keaschall (MIN): Keaschall is another low-salary option at $2,900. His median projection is 7.49 and ceiling projection is 23.87. With a Top_5_finish rate of 1%, his main appeal is his 2x% of 58%, indicating strong value for his cost. His Own% is 8.7%, making him a viable cheap option with moderate ownership.
Kerry Carpenter (DET): Carpenter is priced at $3,800 and offers consistent value with a median projection of 9.08 and a ceiling projection of 36.53. His Top_5_finish rate is 5%, and his 2x% is 56%. His Own% is 7.6%, positioning him as a solid, lower-owned value play that can provide a good return on his salary.