MLB DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

jshabazz87

1 year ago

MLB DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NBA DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the MLB DFS Range of Outcomes and the MLB Contest Simulations.

MLB Pitcher Ceiling Data Breakdown

Keider Montero (SP, DET): Montero has the highest Ceiling in this dataset at 51.77 fantasy points and an impressive Top_finish rate of 45%. His Salary is $6500 and his Own% is relatively low at 4.6%. His high ceiling and top finish probability at a moderate salary and low ownership make him an extremely appealing GPP target with significant upside.
Spencer Schwellenbach (SP, ATL): Schwellenbach has a high Ceiling of 43.61 fantasy points and a strong Top_finish rate of 21%. His Salary is the highest here at $9500, and his Own% is also high at 26.6%. While his high ownership might make him less appealing for tournaments, his strong ceiling and top finish probability justify his high price and make him a solid option in all formats.
Hunter Brown (SP, HOU): Brown’s Ceiling is 40.67 fantasy points and his Top_finish rate is 12%. His Salary is $9000 and his Own% is 21.2%. He offers a high ceiling at a slightly lower salary than Schwellenbach but also comes with significant ownership, making him more of a play based on matchup and confidence in his performance.
Robbie Ray (SP, SFG): Ray has a Ceiling of 36.02 fantasy points and a Top_finish rate of 5%. His Salary is $7500 and his Own% is the highest here at 31.5%. Despite the high ownership, his ceiling is respectable, and he might be a popular option due to matchup or perceived safety, though his low top finish rate suggests he might be over-owned for tournament play.
Nick Lodolo (SP, CIN): Lodolo has a Ceiling of 35.17 fantasy points and a Top_finish rate of 5%. His Salary is $8700 and his Own% is 24.5%. Similar to Ray, his ceiling is solid, but the lower Top_finish rate compared to Montero and Schwellenbach might make him less attractive for tournaments, especially at his higher salary and significant ownership.

MLB Pitcher Ownership Data Breakdown

Robbie Ray (SP, SFG): With the highest projected Own% of 31.5%, Ray has a Ceiling of 36.02 and a Top_finish rate of 5%. His Salary is $7500. The high ownership suggests he will be a popular choice, potentially due to matchup or name recognition. However, his relatively low top finish probability compared to his ownership might make him a fade candidate in tournaments for those seeking more unique, high-upside options.
Spencer Schwellenbach (SP, ATL): Schwellenbach has a high Own% of 26.6% to go along with a Ceiling of 43.61 and a Top_finish of 21%. His Salary is the highest at $9500. His high ownership is likely driven by his strong ceiling and good chance of being a top scorer. While less contrarian, his strong metrics suggest he could still be a key component of winning lineups.
Nick Lodolo (SP, CIN): Lodolo’s Own% is 24.5%, with a Ceiling of 35.17 and a Top_finish of 5%. His Salary is $8700. His ownership is significant, but his top finish probability is lower compared to some similarly owned or priced pitchers. This might make him a riskier play for tournaments where upside is prioritized.
Hunter Brown (SP, HOU): Brown has an Own% of 21.2%, a Ceiling of 40.67, and a Top_finish of 12%. His Salary is $9000. His ownership is relatively high, but his ceiling and top finish probability are also strong, making him a viable option, though potentially less differentiating in larger field tournaments.
Kevin Gausman (SP, TOR): Gausman has a moderate Own% of 20.8%, a Ceiling of 36.93, and a Top_finish of 3%. His Salary is $8000. His ownership is notable, but his top finish rate is the lowest among these five. This suggests he might be a safer floor play but with less upside to be a top scorer on the slate, making him potentially better suited for cash games than tournaments.

MLB Hitter Ceiling Data Breakdown

Marcell Ozuna (OF, ATL): Ozuna has a Ceiling of 37.99 fantasy points and a Top_5_finish rate of 27%, both very high in this dataset. His Salary is $4700 and his Own% is 22.1%. The significant 2x% of 33% suggests a strong likelihood of exceeding his salary-based value. His high ceiling and top finish probability make him a strong GPP target, even at a moderate ownership level. Playing on a team with a high 8+% further enhances his potential.
Elly De La Cruz (SS, CIN): De La Cruz boasts a similar Ceiling of 36.71 fantasy points and a high Top_5_finish rate of 28%. His Salary is $5800 and his Own% is 15.0%. His 2x% is lower at 11% compared to Ozuna, but his high ceiling at a potentially lower ownership on a team with a lower overall Own% (CIN 9.6%) could make him a high-upside tournament play.
Alex Verdugo (OF, ATL): With a Ceiling of 36.02 fantasy points and a Top_5_finish of 23%, Verdugo is another Atlanta outfielder with significant upside. His Salary of $3300 makes him a more affordable option, and his high 2x% of 65% indicates a strong floor for his price. His Own% is 21.5%. He presents a strong value proposition, especially considering the high offensive potential of the Atlanta team.
Juan Soto (OF, NYM): Soto has a Ceiling of 32.28 fantasy points and a Top_5_finish rate of 15%. His Salary is $5700 and his Own% is 19.7%. His lower 2x% of 5% suggests more volatility. However, his high ceiling on a team with lower overall ownership (NYM 9.0%) could make him an interesting contrarian play capable of a big performance.
Austin Riley (3B, ATL): Riley’s Ceiling is 32.50 fantasy points with a Top_5_finish of 15%. His Salary is $5000 and his Own% is a relatively high 24.5%. His 2x% is 13%. While his ownership is higher, his consistent potential for a high score within a strong offensive environment keeps him in consideration for both cash games and tournaments.

MLB Hitter Value Data Breakdown

Alex Verdugo (OF, ATL): Verdugo stands out for value with a Salary of $3300, a Ceiling of 36.02, and a very high 2x% of 65%. His Top_5_finish of 23% and Own% of 21.5% further solidify his strong price-to-performance potential, making him a key value target, especially given Atlanta’s high team 8+
Jarred Kelenic (OF, ATL): With the lowest Salary in this selection at $2300, Kelenic has a Ceiling of 27.52 and an extremely high 2x% of 75%. His Top_5_finish is 8% and his Own% is low at 3.3%. While his ceiling isn’t as high as some others, his minimal salary and high probability of exceeding value make him an excellent punt option, especially within the potent Atlanta offense.
Ryan Kreidler (OF, DET): Kreidler has a Salary of $2200, a Ceiling of 19.93, and a 2x% of 73%. His Top_5_finish is 5% and his Own% is very low at 1.2%. Similar to Kelenic, his low salary and high 2x% make him a viable deep punt play, though his overall upside might be limited compared to hitters in stronger offenses.
Tyler Wade (2B/OF, SDP): Priced at $2200, Wade has a Ceiling of 18.45 and a 2x% of 65%. His Top_5_finish is just 1% and his Own% is 2.2%. While his ceiling and top finish probability are low, his minimal salary and high likelihood of reaching 2x value could make him a salary-saving option in deeper roster builds.
Nick Allen (SS, ATL): Allen has a Salary of $2600, a Ceiling of 21.59, and a high 2x% of 62%. His Top_5_finish is 6% and his Own% is 3.5%. Being part of the Atlanta offense at a low salary with a good chance of exceeding value makes him an interesting value consideration, though his ceiling might not be as high as other Atlanta hitters.

MLB Stacks 8+ Data Breakdown

Cincinnati (CIN): With an Own% of just 9.6%, Cincinnati is projected to have low ownership. Their 8+% is 23%, which is relatively moderate compared to other teams listed. However, their Top Score% of 13% suggests they have a decent chance of being a high-scoring team despite the lower ownership. This discrepancy might make them an interesting GPP target if they are overlooked by the majority of players. Their Win% is 53%, indicating they are expected to win more than half of their games, which could correlate with offensive production.
New York Mets (NYM): The Mets have an Own% of 9.0%, the second-lowest among the listed teams. Their 8+% is 22%, and their Top Score% is 13%, mirroring Cincinnati’s output in these categories. Their Win% is lower at 58%. The low ownership might stem from inconsistent offensive performance, but the 13% Top Score% indicates they possess the potential for a high-scoring outburst, making them a contrarian option to consider.
San Francisco Giants (SFG): Projected at 5.8% Own%, the Giants have the lowest ownership among the teams listed. Their 8+% is 21%, and their Top Score% is a modest 11%. Their Win% is also lower at 59%. The very low ownership likely reflects lower overall offensive projections, but in tournaments, targeting a team that could exceed expectations at minimal ownership can be a viable strategy.
Miami (MIA): Miami’s Own% is 7.2%. Their 8+% is 19%, the lowest among these teams, and their Top Score% is 12%. Their Win% is 47%, below the 50% mark. The low ownership aligns with their lower projected run production, suggesting they might be a less appealing target in most scenarios, but could still have isolated player performances that exceed team expectations.
Houston (HOU): With an Own% of 8.0%, Houston also falls into the lower ownership tier. Their 8+% is 18%, and their Top Score% is 10%, both relatively low. Their Win% is 57%. Despite the lower run and top score percentages compared to teams like ATL, their lower ownership might make them a less obvious but potentially rewarding pick if their offense outperforms projections on a given slate.