MLB DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

jshabazz87

1 year ago

MLB DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NBA DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the MLB DFS Range of Outcomes and the MLB Contest Simulations.

Pitcher Ceiling Data Breakdown

Logan Webb (SFG): Webb has a Salary of $8500 and a relatively low Own% of 6.4%. His Ceiling projection is 40.78 fantasy points, which is a solid upside. His Top_finish% is 11%, indicating a decent chance of being the top-scoring pitcher. Despite a good ceiling and relatively low ownership compared to higher-priced options, his median projection of 17.36 might be perceived as slightly lower, contributing to the lower ownership.
Justin Steele (CHC): Steele’s Salary is $7700, and his Own% is 17.7%. His Ceiling is projected at 42.65 fantasy points, which is quite high for his salary. His Top_finish% is 10%, and his Top_5_finish% is strong at 50%. His combination of a high ceiling and a mid-range salary likely contributes to his higher ownership than Webb, but he still offers significant upside.
Zac Gallen (ARI): Gallen has a Salary of $8300 and an Own% of 13.2%. His Ceiling is 44.79 fantasy points, and his Top_finish% is 16%. His consistent ability to perform well is reflected in his Top_5_finish% of 53% and Top_10_finish% of 83%. His solid ceiling and consistency likely make him a popular, but not overwhelmingly so, option.
Logan Gilbert (SEA): Gilbert is one of the higher-priced pitchers with a Salary of $9500 and an Own% of 20.8%. His Ceiling is high at 45.67 fantasy points, and his Top_finish% is the highest among this group at 19%. His strong probabilities of high finishes likely justify his higher salary and ownership, as he presents a significant scoring threat.
Kodai Senga (NYM): Senga has a Salary of $9000 and the highest Own% among these five at 40.3%. His Ceiling is the highest at 48.47 fantasy points, and his Top_finish% is 15%. His high ownership likely reflects the perception of him as a top-tier pitching option with significant strikeout upside and ceiling potential.

Pitcher Ownership Data Breakdown

Kodai Senga (NYM): With the highest Own% at 40.3% and a Salary of $9000, Senga is clearly projected as a very popular option. His Ceiling of 48.47 fantasy points and a Top_finish% of 15% corroborate his high upside. His high ownership suggests he is considered a relatively safe and high-ceiling option for many DFS players.
Hunter Greene (CIN): Greene has a Salary of $7900 and a significant Own% of 24.9%. His Ceiling of 37.70 fantasy points is lower than Senga’s, but his Top_finish% of 4% might be concerning for his high ownership. His popularity likely stems from his strikeout potential, even if his overall ceiling isn’t the absolute highest.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): Eovaldi’s Salary is $8700, and his Own% is 23.9%. His Ceiling is 39.99 fantasy points, and his Top_finish% is 8%. His ownership suggests he is perceived as a reliable option with decent upside, though perhaps not the ceiling of Senga or Gilbert.
Michael King (SDP): King has a Salary of $9200 and an Own% of 21.3%. His Ceiling is 40.14 fantasy points, and his Top_finish% is 7%. Despite a high salary, his ownership indicates he is being targeted as a potentially high-scoring pitcher. His consistency might be a factor in his popularity.
Logan Gilbert (SEA): With a Salary of $9500 and an Own% of 20.8%, Gilbert is another highly owned pitcher. His Ceiling of 45.67 fantasy points and the highest Top_finish% at 19% strongly support his popularity. His high ownership reflects his perceived safety and significant upside.

Hitter Ceiling Data Breakdown

Xavier Edwards (MIA): Edwards has a relatively low Salary of $4400 and a projected Own% of just 1.9%. His Ceiling projection is 26.98 fantasy points. Notably, his 2x% is high at 23%, suggesting a good floor for his price. His low ownership, combined with a decent ceiling and high likelihood of exceeding value, could make him an interesting low-cost option in tournaments.
Dylan Moore (2B/3B, SEA): Moore has a Salary of $3300 and a low Own% of 3.9%. His Ceiling is projected at 25.38 fantasy points, which is respectable for his salary range. His 2x% is very high at 47%, indicating a strong probability of achieving value. Moore’s multi-position eligibility adds to his appeal, and his low ownership given his potential upside and value makes him a potential sleeper pick.
Kyle Tucker (OF, CHC): Tucker has a higher Salary of $6300 but a still relatively modest Own% of 5.2%. His Ceiling projection is high at 34.71 fantasy points, the highest among these five hitters. His Top_finish% is 9%, suggesting a solid chance of being the top scorer. While his salary is higher, his high ceiling and relatively low ownership might make him a good tournament play.
Francisco Lindor (SS, NYM): Lindor’s Salary is $5400, and his projected Own% is 5.7%. His Ceiling is 28.95 fantasy points, and he has a Top_finish% of 6%. His consistent production is reflected in his Top_5_finish% of 18% and Top_10_finish% of 28%. While not the lowest owned, his lower ownership compared to other prominent players with similar ceilings could make him a slightly contrarian option in a good matchup.
Jackson Merrill (OF, SDP): Merrill has a Salary of $5200 and a higher Own% of 16.3% compared to the others in this group. His Ceiling is projected at 27.53 fantasy points, and his Top_finish% is 4%. His ownership suggests he is being recognized as a potential value, but his ceiling still offers upside. Examining his matchup and recent performance might help determine if his ownership is justified or if he’s still a viable option.

Hitter Value Data Breakdown

Liam Hicks (C, MIA): Hicks has a very low Salary of $2400 and a low Own% of 2%. His Ceiling is 19.71 fantasy points, and his 2x% is exceptionally high at 54%. While his overall ceiling might not be the highest, his high probability of reaching value at such a low cost makes him an attractive punt play, especially in formats where salary savings are crucial. His low ownership suggests he is likely being overlooked.
Ryan Bliss (2B, SEA): Bliss has a Salary of $2800 and a similar low Own% of 2%. His Ceiling is 19.83 fantasy points, and his 2x% is also very high at 53%. Like Hicks, Bliss offers a high likelihood of achieving value at a low salary, making him a potential difference-maker in tournaments if he hits his ceiling. His low ownership makes him a contrarian option.
Kyle Isbel (OF, KCR): Isbel has a Salary of $2200 and a higher Own% of 6.9% compared to Hicks and Bliss, but still relatively low overall. His Ceiling is lower at 12.51 fantasy points, but his 2x% is still significant at 48%. At his extremely low salary, even reaching value provides considerable roster flexibility. His slightly higher ownership might reflect recognition of his potential at his price point.
Jose Siri (OF, NYM): Siri has a Salary of $2900 and a moderate Own% of 2.9%. His Ceiling is higher at 23.48 fantasy points, and his 2x% is 48%. Siri offers a better ceiling than some of the other very low-priced options while still having a good chance of exceeding value. His slightly higher salary comes with more potential upside, and his ownership remains relatively low.
Dylan Moore (2B/3B, SEA): Appearing in both Hitter Ceiling and Value Data, Moore has a Salary of $3300 and an Own% of 3.9%. His Ceiling is 25.38 fantasy points, and his 2x% is 47%. His inclusion here highlights his strong value proposition – a decent ceiling combined with a high probability of exceeding his salary expectations, all at a still relatively low ownership.

Stacks 8+ Data Breakdown

NYM (New York Mets): This team has a 22% in the “Runs” category, a 55% win percentage, a 15% in the “Top Score” category, and a 63.8% projected ownership. This suggests the Mets are projected to score runs at a relatively high rate, have a decent chance of winning their game, have a moderate chance of being the top scorer, and are expected to be heavily owned in DFS contests.
SEA (Seattle Mariners): The Mariners have 15% in “Runs”, a 61% win percentage, 11% in “Top Score”, and a 74.2% projected ownership. Despite a lower projection in runs and top score compared to the Mets, their high win percentage and very high projected ownership suggest they might be a popular choice, possibly due to favorable matchups or pricing not explicitly shown in this data.
ARI (Arizona Diamondbacks): Arizona shows 15% for “Runs”, a 57% win percentage, 10% for “Top Score”, and a very high 94.9% projected ownership. Similar to Seattle, their ownership is exceptionally high, even with relatively lower projections in runs and top score. This warrants further investigation into potential factors driving this high ownership, such as player pricing or opponent weakness (not available in the provided sources).
MIA (Miami Marlins): Miami has 14% in “Runs”, a lower 45% win percentage, 10% for “Top Score”, and a very low 17.2% projected ownership. Their lower win probability and run projection likely contribute to their low expected ownership.
MIN (Minnesota Twins): The Twins have 14% in “Runs”, a 52% win percentage, 11% for “Top Score”, and a moderate 104.4% projected ownership. Their win percentage and scoring projections are fairly middle-of-the-road.
CHC (Chicago Cubs): The Cubs show 14% for “Runs”, a 55% win percentage, 11% for “Top Score”, and a low 21.2% projected ownership. Despite a decent win probability, their lower run and top score projections might be keeping their ownership down.
SDP (San Diego Padres): The Padres have 12% in “Runs”, a 52% win percentage, a slightly lower 10% for “Top Score”, and a high 113.0% projected ownership. Their run and top score projections are the lowest among the listed teams, yet their ownership is very high.