Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Dylan Cease is projected to be the chalk SP1 and it looks like for good reason. He’s the top True AVG pitcher on the slate with a weighted True AVG below .200. Fire him up in all formats.
- Kyle Harrison is a great pivot to Cease if you need/want a lower owned option. Perkins, Arrighetti, Scott, and Phillips make up the next tier of strong True AVG arms.
- Bennett, Martinez, and Rogers are the bottom 3 True AVG pitchers tonight. This puts LAA, HOU, and CIN all in play for GPPs.
Macro Team Stats
- Dodgers have been crushing as of late and are at the top of the scoring percentages and top score% by a decent margin. A full stack almost requires you to punt SP so just be mindful of the pricing.
- MIA, CHW, COL, and HOU are the next group of teams to consider for your stacks tonight. MIA would be the priority of that group in terms of 8+ but all are worth consideration.
- Sad times as the east coast has become the least coast. The Mets, RedSox, and Yankees are the bottom 3 teams tonight with woeful projections.
Trending Teams
The trending tables tonight basically mirror the scoring percentages with LAD as the top trending team and with the best trending matchup by a lot. They’re followed by CHW, COL, and MIA. Almost half the teams on the slate are trending like hot garbage on a summer NYC curb. Of that trash, ATL, SDP, and BOS are the stone worst and can be completely removed from your pool for SE and limited entries.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- As noted earlier, Cease looks like good chalk. He’s likely your starting point at SP regardless of contest tonight.
- Castillo and Detmers are the SP2 options showing up the most in the PM. Detmers gives you a more balanced combo, while Castillo would be the punt option.
- HOU and BAL are the clear priorities for full stacks based on the exposures.
- The Dodgers are not showing up as much in the PM exposures but that’s largely due to their prices. That said, Castillo at SP2, or a combo of Detmers/Castillo likely gives you the salary flexibility to fit them as a full stack. Otherwise a mini-stack or one-offs with HOU/BAL + Cease seems like the way to go.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
