Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers.
Model Results
Highlight from yesterday’s post: Blake Snell had a significant negative deviation between True AVG and actuals. He faced the Mets and gave up five runs on seven hits with three walks and four strikeouts. the Mets scored a total of 11 runs.
MLB True AVG Notable results
The highest True AVG today goes to Tyler Gilbert, with a mark of .373, but I would rather focus on Reid Detmers. His True AVG sits at .321 and his negative deviation is a massive -.156! He’s got a lot of regression coming his way and tonight he faces the Red Sox who are the league leaders in wRC+ against LHP. The line isn’t out yet for that game but taking the overs on Red Sox run totals, playing them in DFS, and hitting unders for Detmers are all in play.
On the flip side, the lowest True AVG belongs to Konnor Pilkington! True AVG was all over him in his last start and he had eight strikeouts and no runs allowed. He was still unlucky in terms of BABIP, and models are going back to the well. He’s up against a slightly below average Rangers team. With terrific strikeout rates and a strong True AVG, Pilkington is a solid option in DFS and betting alike.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviation was for Pilkington, but the second and third largest go to Carlos Rodon and Kyle Bradish. Both have deviations of just over .100 points and we should expect regression to treat them kindly. Both pitchers have league average matchups, but initial ownership projections have Bradish very low owned. when you consider his strikeout potential and low price that seems insane! Look to prioritize both.
- While Detmers was the negative deviation highlighted above, we also have Michael Kopech and Edward Cabrera with large differences. Worth noting that Cabrera has had just one game, so take this one with a grain of salt. Kopech is a big regression candidate and faces LAD who are top three in the league in wRC+. It’s worth giving some slack to Cabrera, but avoid Kopech or attack him in all formats.