Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model and True AVG tables. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from the previous slate’s post: While the prediction for Robbie Ray was an easy one to make, he still came through. He went 6.2 innings with just two hits, one run, and seven strikeouts.
Below you’ll find a recap of the DFS and Betting models. These models are powered by True AVG and other powerful metrics! so, If you are enjoying the True AVG report, you should try out a subscription to the site for access (Find an option here!).
MLB True AVG notable results
There are two pitchers at the top of the True AVG models today: Blake Snell and George Kirby. Both of these guys have been covered in multiple starts and it’s no different today. Snell continues to benefit from a drastically reduced walk rate while maintaining a fantastic strikeout rate. Meanwhile, Kirby has similar baselines but has benefited from a home run rate that is much too low. Neither of these pitchers have great matchups, as both the Guardians (against Snell) and the Nationals (Against Kirby) are both around league average in their respective splits. Overall both of these pitchers are strong options in all formats and betting props.
Next up with the worst True AVG we find Jose Urena. He’s just so fucking bad. And has been for, like, multiple years now. How does this guy keep getting work? Anyway, the Rangers are a strong stack in GPPs but will be popular. Make sure if you utilize them that you build in leverage in other parts of your lineups.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviations today belong to Brayan Bello who faces the Blue Jays. Granted, this is a really tough spot overall, but Bello has a lot of regression in his favor. His BABIP is far too high at above .450 and his strikeout rates have been awesome. The big issue here is a walk rate north of 10%. All of that said, he’s a very volatile play in DFS but that is what we look for in GPPs. Hit his overs in strikeouts and take a shot on him in GPPs if you need the salary relief.
- Finally there are two pitchers with large negative deviations: Shane McClanahan and Cal Quantrill. McClanahan has a prime matchup with the Angels and their 73 wRC+ against LHP, but his BABIP has been too low and his strikeout rates are down. On the other hand, Quantrill has a spot against the Padres who are a top five team against RHP and has both BABIP and home run rate regression acting against him. Overall, the much better play is stacking up the Padres than the Angels. In sum, you’ll want to avoid Quantrill at all costs and be careful with McClanahan.