Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model and True AVG tables. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from the previous slate’s post: It was admittedly a tame day for the models predictions as well as the outcomes. Jordan Lyles had an okay, but not great, results as the largest positive deviation. He went seven innings with just one earned run but only one strikeout.
Below you’ll find a recap of the DFS and Betting models. These models are powered by True AVG and other powerful metrics! so, If you are enjoying the True AVG report, you should try out a subscription to the site for access (Find an option here!).
MLB True AVG notable results
The models have three pitchers with True AVGs well above the field: Justin Steele, Spender Strider, and Reid Detmers. All three of these guys are priorities, but we will focus on Steele here. He’s been downright phenomenal in the recent sample, with a strikeout rate above 30% and an xFIP of just 1.85. And if you are a Paydirt subscriber, the projections models have been telling you to play him every start to great results. He is facing the Brewers, who he faced in his last start as well, who are just tragically bad against LHP and hold a 31% strikeout rate in split. This is one of the best spots and while Steele may carry heavy ownership he is worthwhile.
Similarly to the best True AVGs, the models find two pitchers well below the rest in the metric: Bryse Wilson and Chad Kuhl. Both pitchers are bad and have bad matchups, with Wilson facing the Phillies (111 wRC+) and Kuhl facing the Mets (137 wRC+). While Wilson is technically the “better pitcher” by xFIP, his BABIP and LOB rates are pointing to some drastic regression coming soon. On the other hand, Chad Kuhl is a thick chode, with both his strikeout and walk rate sitting at 14.3% in the recent sample. Overall we want to look to the Mets and Phillies as top stacking options on the slate.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviations belong to our friend Reid Detmers who is up against the Blue Jays. Since returning from his stint in the minors he’s found a much better strikeout rate which has boosted his ceiling. Likewise, his BABIP has been unsustainably high so we should expect even better outcomes ahead. His matchup with the Blue Jays is rough, but not impossible. Their wRC+ of 112 against LHP is great but not enough to outright avoid a pitcher. In sum, we likely get an ownership discount on Demters today and we should leverage it. Look to hit the over on his strikeouts and utilize him in GPPs.
- Finally we have the largest negative deviations going to Glenn Otto up against the Tigers. We can just get it out of the way now: The Tigers are fucking bad. They have just a 70 wRC+ and an ISO under .100. However, Otto’s regression situation might be worse, with BABIP and LOB rates both way off base. His ERA is almost 3 runs below his xFIP as well. This matchup is like an island game between the Texans and the Jets but neither side has any cornerbacks. Do you want to play it? Absolutely not. But we should. Take the over on the Tigers and unders on Otto.