This is a recurring post giving some macro information about the NBA DFS main slate utilizing the Paydirt Range of Outcomes. We are currently testing out a couple different formats and using algorithms to write it, so if you have feedback please let us know!
You can find the NBA Range of Outcomes here if you want to see the full model
NBA Ceiling Data Breakdown:
- Nikola Jokic (DEN): As a Center, Jokic is projected for 35.83 minutes with a salary of $12,000. He has a high ceiling of 87.25 fantasy points and has a very strong chance of a Top finish (48%), with a very high probability of a top 5 finish (83%) and a top 10 finish (92%) and also has a 87% chance of scoring 20+% over his base projection, making him a premium, top tier player.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): As a Power Forward/Center, Giannis is projected for 33.6 minutes at a salary of $11,500. He has a ceiling of 79.57 fantasy points with a 23% chance of a top finish, a 73% chance of a top 5 finish, and an 87% chance of a top 10 finish. Like Jokic, he also is extremely reliable scoring above 20% of his base projection at 84%.
- Victor Wembanyama (SAS): Projected for 33.21 minutes at Center, Wembanyama has a salary of $11,000. He has a ceiling of 72.71 fantasy points and a 10% chance of a top finish. This is the lowest top finish probability of the five selected players, but is still a very strong option with a 54% chance of a top 5 finish and a 76% chance of a top 10 finish.
- Tyrese Maxey (PHI): A Point Guard who is projected for 36.78 minutes with a salary of $9700. He has a ceiling of 68.79 fantasy points. He has a lower probability of a top finish at 5%, but a strong chance at a top 5 finish at 42%, and an even stronger chance at a top 10 finish at 70%, with 79% of simulated results scoring at least 20% over his base projection.
- Cade Cunningham (DET): As a Point Guard, Cunningham is projected for 34.49 minutes at a salary of $10,100. His ceiling is 68.86 fantasy points, with a relatively low probability of a top finish (6%), but he is a reliable option in the top 5 (43%) and top 10 (68%) category. He also has a 77% chance of going 20+% above his base projection, as well.
NBA GPP Data Breakdown:
- Paul Reed (DET): As a Center, Reed is projected for 17.06 minutes with a very low salary of $3000. He has a ceiling of 35.73 fantasy points. Though he has a 0% chance of a top, top 5 or top 10 finish, he has a 95% chance of scoring at least 4x his salary and an 85% chance of scoring at least 5x his salary, as well as a 67% chance of scoring 6x his salary, making him a potential value play for GPP tournaments.
- Jalen Duren (DET): As a Center, Duren is projected for 29.12 minutes with a low salary of $6200. He has a ceiling of 52.07 fantasy points with a 0% chance of a top finish, and only a small chance of a top 5 and top 10 finish at 3% and 12%, respectively. However, Duren has an 84% chance of scoring at least 4x his salary, and 62% chance of scoring 5x his salary. This is an interesting value play that costs almost half of the more expensive players in this document.
- Kelly Oubre (PHI): A Shooting Guard who is projected for 35.76 minutes with a salary of $6300. He has a ceiling of 53.74 fantasy points. He has 0% chance of a top finish, and is only at 2% for a top 5 finish, and 15% for a top 10 finish, however, he scores at least 4x his salary 84% of the time, 5x his salary 59% of the time, and 6x his salary 32% of the time. This represents a great scoring value at this price point.
- Ivica Zubac (LAC): Projected for 30.29 minutes at Center, Zubac has a salary of $7500. He has a ceiling of 57.46 fantasy points and has a 0% chance of a top finish, with a low probability of a top 5 (10%) or top 10 (31%) finish. Like the other low priced players listed here, this is another strong value play for GPP tournaments with 82% of simulations showing at least a 4x multiple and a 56% rate of going 5x.
- Nikola Vucevic (CHI): As a Center, Vucevic is projected for 31.86 minutes at a salary of $8000. He has a ceiling of 61.33 fantasy points and a very low chance of a top finish (1%), and a low chance of a top 5 (20%) and top 10 finish (46%). However, he’s a strong value play in GPP tournaments since he has an 83% chance of scoring 4x his salary and a 59% chance of scoring 5x his salary.
NBA High Owned Data Breakdown:
- Aaron Gordon (DEN): As a Power Forward/Center, Gordon is projected for 28.75 minutes with a low salary of $4400. He has a ceiling of 42.42 fantasy points and a 0% chance of a top, top 5 or top 10 finish. This makes him an extremely low probability player to have success, however he has an 85% chance of 4x and a 63% chance of scoring 5x his salary, and is the highest owned player at 50.92%.
- Coby White (CHI): A Point Guard/Shooting Guard, White is projected for 30.57 minutes with a salary of $5900. He has a ceiling of 49.27 fantasy points. He has a very low chance of a top, top 5 and top 10 finish at 0%, 1% and 6%, respectively. However, he has a good chance at achieving at least a 4x multiple of his salary (82%) and a 58% chance at 5x, at a relatively low cost. He is the 2nd most owned player at 47.23%.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): With a salary of $11,500 and projected for 33.6 minutes, Giannis is a high-priced, high-owned player. He has a ceiling of 79.57 fantasy points, with 23% chance of a top finish, a 73% chance of top 5, and 87% chance of a top 10 finish. He also has a very high probability of scoring 20+% over his base projection at 84%.
- Kelly Oubre (PHI): Projected for 35.76 minutes at a salary of $6300, Oubre has a ceiling of 53.74 fantasy points. With a low probability of a top finish (0%), top 5 (2%) and top 10 finish (15%), he has strong probability of achieving 4x his salary (84%), and also a decent probability at 5x his salary (59%), and 6x his salary (32%). He is also owned at 20.99%.
- Nikola Jokic (DEN): With a salary of $12,000 and projected for 35.83 minutes, Jokic is a high-priced, high-owned player. He has a ceiling of 87.25 fantasy points with a very high chance of a top finish (48%), a top 5 finish (83%), and a top 10 finish (92%). He also has a very high probability of scoring 20+% over his base projection (87%).
Consolidated Table of Key Players:
This table consolidates key players from the three different files, along with their salient metrics such as their position, salary, projected minutes, ceiling, top finish probabilities, and the probability of scoring 4x, 5x, and 6x their salary. This table will serve as a helpful reference point for any future questions you might have.