NBA DFS Slate Analysis
This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NBA DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the NBA DFS Range of Outcomes and the NBA Contest Simulations.
Ceiling Data Breakdown
- Nikola Jokic (DEN, $12300): As the highest-priced player, Jokic is projected to play 37.75 minutes with a median fantasy score of 68.16 and a ceiling of 87.6. He has a 57% chance of being the top finisher and an 82% chance of a top-five finish. His high salary demands a significant fantasy output, making him a potentially risky GPP play despite his high ceiling.
- James Harden (LAC, $9800): Harden is expected to play 36.48 minutes with a median projection of 52.01 fantasy points. He has a lower probability of a top finish (14%) but a reasonable chance of a top-five finish (49%). His ownership projection is 13.58%, suggesting he could be a contrarian play in GPPs.
- Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK, $9900): Projected for 35.81 minutes, Towns has a median projection of 48.89 fantasy points. His chances of a top finish (7%) and top-five finish (37%) are relatively low compared to Jokic and Harden. This makes him a less appealing option for GPPs, as reflected in his lower ownership projection of 5.12%.
- Anthony Edwards (MIN, $9400): Edwards is projected to play 36.21 minutes with a median of 45.65 fantasy points. Similar to Towns, his top finish (3%) and top-five finish (26%) probabilities are low. His ownership is projected at 5.24%.
- Scottie Barnes (TOR, $7900): Barnes is projected to play the most minutes at 38.14, with a median of 44.95 fantasy points. He has a 2% chance of a top finish and a 24% chance of a top-five finish. His high projected ownership of 56.95% suggests he will be a popular play, making him less contrarian
GPP Data Breakdown
- Miles McBride (NYK, $4200): Projected for 34.81 minutes, McBride has a median of 28.53 fantasy points. His appeal lies in the potential for exceeding value, indicated by the high percentages for 4x% (94%), 5x% (82%), and 6x% (65%). He has 15.34% projected ownership.
- Keon Ellis (SAC, $4400): Ellis is projected for 34.16 minutes with a median of 29.5 fantasy points. Ellis has high percentages for 4x% (95%), 5x% (84%), and 6x% (63%). His projected ownership is 15.25%.
- Ja’Kobe Walter (TOR, $3700): Walter is projected for 33.09 minutes with a median of 22.1 fantasy points. He has a 64% chance of scoring 20+% of his salary, an 88% chance of scoring 4x his salary, and a 68% chance of scoring 5x his salary.
- Dante Exum (DAL, $4700): Exum is projected for 23.51 minutes with a median of 31.8 fantasy points. Exum has high percentages for 4x% (95%), 5x% (83%), and 6x% (65%).
- Isaiah Joe (OKC, $4000): Joe is projected for 30.56 minutes and a median of 29.7 fantasy points. He has a 90% chance of scoring 20+% of his salary, a 96% chance of scoring 4x his salary, and a 87% chance of scoring 5x his salary
High Owned Data Breakdown
- Scottie Barnes (TOR, $7900): Barnes is projected to play 38.14 minutes with a median of 44.95 fantasy points. He has a 2% chance of a top finish and a 24% chance of a top-five finish.
- Aaron Wiggins (OKC, $4900): Wiggins is projected to play 32 minutes with a median of 34.54 fantasy points. He has a very slim chance of a top finish, listed at 0%, and a 2% chance of a top-five finish.
- Nikola Jokic (DEN, $12300): As the highest-priced player, Jokic is projected to play 37.75 minutes with a median fantasy score of 68.16 and a ceiling of 87.6. He has a 57% chance of being the top finisher and an 82% chance of a top-five finish.
- Orlando Robinson (TOR, $3500): Robinson is projected for 30.01 minutes with a low median of 24.53 fantasy points. He has no chance of a top finish or a top-five finish.
- DeMar DeRozan (SAC, $7500): DeRozan is projected to play 37.96 minutes with a median of 43.72 fantasy points. He has a 2% chance of a top finish and an 18% chance of a top-five finish
NBA DFS Summary Table
