Welcome to the NBA Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending players. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro NBA Defensive Stats
- WAS on the slate = WAS is the worst defense playing. One interesting note is that they are allowing the fewest 3pt attempts per min on the slate, but giving up the most free throw attempts, pts, and rebounds per min. Target opposing players who are active around the basket and not stand-in-the-corner guys.
- UTA and MEM are the next two bad teams allowing 1.08 FPPM, followed by CHI and IND at 1.05. Needless to say there are plenty of teams to attack tonight.
- ATL, OKC, DET, and BOS are allowing the fewest FPPM and are matched up with each other – DET/ATL and BOS/OKC.
Macro NBA Combo Stats
- UTA and WAS are playing each other in what should be fantasy fireworks and an abomination to real basketball. A gamestack is very much in play here.
- MEM/SAS has a high combined FPPM rate but it’s hard to see how the Spurs don’t just curbstomp the Grizzlies. That said, targeting players who would benefit in a blowout is viable.
- DET/ATL and BOS/OKC look like easy avoids tonight outside of the high usage, high upside guys such as SGA, Jalen Johnson, etc…
Trending Players
Keep in eye on Jalen Duren news, if he misses there is some value on DET with Paul Reed despite the matchup. UTA looks like the priority side in the UTA/WAS matchup. As of now Tyler Burton and Keldon Johnson look like top value options and are cheap ways to access the MEM/SAS game environment without a ton of risk/salary.
If you want to research these dudes yourself, go over to the gamelogs tool and look into their rotations and performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Portfolio Manager exposures clearly prioritizing UTA tonight. There are enough games on the slate a max-3 is likely sufficient.
- Luka is popping up as the priority spend up over Wemby, but you can go either way there.
- Your core tonight is something like 2 Jazz, one of Luka/Wemby, with a cheap WAS piece
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
