Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It’ll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!
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NFL DFS main slate breakdown:
Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections
- The highest team total on the slate is SF at 31.75, lowest is NE at just 13.00.
- The highest game total on the slate is WAS/SF at 49.50, with PHI/ARI at 48.50.
- Highest passing TD expectation is SF at 2.23, with BUF and KC at 2.07 and 1.85 respectively.
- Highest rushing TD expectation is PHI at 1.80, with SF at 1.55.
- Highest dropback expectation goes to WAS at 41.94, then KC at 40.56.
Here are the top 10 overall stacks in median projection:
- SF has a lot of representation at the top of the models, you can kind of stack them whichever way you like and the cost is not as prohibitive as other high team totals.
- PHI has a couple of instances, as well as MIA which is mostly based on Tyreek’s projection without Waddle active.
- Interesting to see TB up here, it’s a testament to how solid Baker has been and what a good season Mike Evans is having.
Sorting by team total:
- All this ownership centered around SF, PHI, and KC while BUF goes basically unowned in the middle of the pack should signal that there’s a lot of upside in stacking them today while others avoid them.
- BAL is really sneaky today and they are really cheap to stack together with their main pieces. You can stack them and bring it back with Tyreek to build a great shootout script without breaking the bank.
- Other main team that stick out here from an ownership perspective is LAR. People are more on the NYG side because of the savings, but LAR has been awesome in terms of condensed offense the last 5 weeks and is just as valuable as KC.
This is a pretty simple week if you just want to jam in the high team totals. SF is accessible and not overly expensive, PHI is expensive but there are cheap options that you can build with around them. You also have some interesting lower totals to focus on without much ownership. Makes for a really good week for GPPs.
Highest projected ownership
Note: Fanduel has some large ownership differences from Draftkings this week. Hopkins, Jonathan Taylor, Nico Collins, and James Cook are all notably high on FD.
As far as the established ownership:
- CMC chalk is fine, no issues with it, though I do think that you can get away from it.
- I hate this Zamir White chalk but it’s really hard not to go there if you are building with a low owned stack.
- Gerald Everett is probably okay, he projects well, but it’s not like you can’t go other places at TE and I’m usually happy to just correlate to my stacks instead.
- Not going to play Broncos DST, that seems very silly here.
- Demario Douglas is fine, it’s a (presumably) good gamescript and he’s been good with Zappe.
- Shaheed is probably the worst chalk on the slate, he’s an easy avoid at that price point.
- Love Zay Flowers, think he’s a solid option especially if paired with Tyreek/Lamar.
- Jalen Hurts is -280 to score a rushing TD lol.
- Rashee Rice is maybe a little bit too expensive here, really only valuable to me with Kelce or in a mini-stack.
- Not exactly sure what’s up with the Dalton Shultz chalk, that seems like a reach.
A couple other things:
- I think Achane will get a lot more ownership once we turn the cards over, so be reticent of that.
- One of the most popular pairings will be CMC/Zamir, so I would be avoiding that combo unless you have a low owned stack with it.
Usage and expected fantasy points
First, sorted by exValue, which is the value offered based on their salary and expected PPR points:
Low ownership kind of across the board here. CMC and Everett with some high numbers but for the most part I think you can get away with slamming in a bunch of these guys and still have relative value. Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, and D’andre Swift all catch my eye. Also kind of like Bijan in this spot at 5% ownership.
Next, sorted by raw expected PPR points:
Once again, low ownership across the board. Granted, there aren’t any great values here and most of these guys are kind of in a deadzone in terms of price. Main guys that pique my interest are Tyreek and AJ Brown, with Swift making another appearance if you aren’t stacking PHI.
Finally let’s sort this by Ownership:
Already notes a bunch of the ownership stuff above. I’m honestly not really interested in a lot of the chalk options this week outside of Demario Douglas and Zay Flowers. I could land on a bunch of these guys and be fine with it but I don’t really see a lot of players that I am really having a hard time getting off of.
Overall slate notes
- This is an easy week for stacks, with SF/PHI being the primary options and BAL/KC/BUF being the best secondary options. I also find TB/LAR to be valuable. I know a lot of people are on NYG, which I get, but I don’t think I’ll land there in a handfull of lineups.
- Avoid the Zamir/CMC pairing, otherwise both are fine as chalk options in most lineups.
- I really like the BAL/MIA game environment the more that I dug into things. BAL has a healthy team total, and both these offenses have a lot of upside. Nobody is going to overstack that game and I think it makes for a strong point per dollar option.
- KC came out and said that they were going to limit their WR rotations, so I expect Rashee rice and Justin Watson to be the main guys on the field most of the game. Watson makes for a strong value.
- If you don’t have PHI stacks, I love D’Andre Swift. I think he’s a really good option at a nice price point.
- I didn’t find myself bringing back any WRs for WAS, but if I did it would be Curtis Samuel.
- Jonathan Taylor and Colts DST is a great combo if you are fading Zamir White.
NFL DFS Cash Game Core:
(Finalized after 12pm EST)
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. Generally, you’ll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.
QB – Brock Purdy/Tyrod Taylor
RB – Zamir White
RB – Christian McCaffrey
WR – Demario Douglas
WR – Rashee Rice
TE – Gerald Everett
DST – Broncos DST
NFL DFS GPP Core:
(Finalized after 10am EST)
This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it’s worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.
QB – Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson
RB – De’Von Achane, Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, Zamir White, CMC
WR – Tyreek Hill, Zay Flowers, Michael Wilson, Deebo Samuel, Demario Douglas
TE – Isaiah Likely, Dallas Goedert, George Kittle, Robert Tonyan (if Kmet out)
DST – Whoever you want
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