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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Chargers vs. Ravens

James McCool

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

Over multiple runs the highest positive leverage offered at captain was Cameron Dicker, which sucks. Always hate kicker captain slate, but with the LAC issues in the redzone and the bevy of expensive options to prioritize, it’s going to make plenty of sense.

In other runs we also found Justin Tucker (another Kicker) and Keaton Mitchell as strong captain options. In most runs Lamar Jackson was a significantly negative leveraged captain, but that’s mostly because he fits better as a FLEX option. Overall, if you want to use Lamar Jackson, there’s nothing wrong with that so long as you accept that you won’t be able to fit multiple expensive options at FLEX.

FLEX ownership distributions

Keenan Allen is the highest positive leverage at FLEX in nearly all the runs I did for this slate. His projected ownership is about 20% below what it should be according to the contest sims. The largest negative leverage at FLEX is Quentin Johnston because he is bad at football. It’s a tough scene.

The second largest negative leverage goes to Isaiah Likely, which is mostly because of lack of data I think. He’s probably priced appropriately and looks like an okay but not great option because of the ownership he is sure to demand.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

When we consider the likely dupes for this showdown, it’s clear that people will be paying down at CPT and jamming in FLEX combos. The main FLEX combo to be wary of is Lamar/Keenan/Herbert/Ekeler. Surrounding them are instances of OBJ and Zay Flowers, which makes the secondary LAC options more valuable in larger field GPPs since much less people will be going there.

Note that this is a great game to utilize DST, since they will likely be low owned and correlate well with two teams that like to run the ball in the redzone when possible.

That’s right people, it looks like another showdown where you lock in one DST, one kicker, and both QBs and just do whatever the fuck else you want and instantly win all the money. Great format!

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This should be a fun game overall where it is competitive all the way up to the fourth quarter, where the Chargers inevitably have a chance to win the game but make a crucial 4th quarter mistake and lose by 5 points.

Most people are going to be building 4-2 with a BAL lean, mostly because the secondary options and passing tree make more sense and are easier to navigate. That’s going to leave options like Guyton, Everett, and Parham as nice pieces to use in mitigating dupes with a 3-3 or 4-2 LAC lean.

My personal favorite angle here is going to be a Justin Tucker captain, Ravens DST FLEX lineup with Lamar and Gus Edwards. Is it disgusting? Yes. Yes it is. But the LAC offense is hamstrung by bad position players and the Ravens are arguably the best team in the league with a really strong defense.

Some players that look overvalued:

Some players that look undervalued:

Good luck and bink a unique

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