NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Cowboys vs. 49ers

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• CMC is a free square, while Brock Purdy looks to be a prime fade on this slate
• Both QBs represent less upside than the majority of the main position players here, so avoiding them puts you in a strong position for win equity and managing dupes
• Gamescript matters a lot less in this game, so building whatever works with the best players doesn’t lock you out if the gamescript goes sideways

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

The highest leverage captain tonight is Brandon Aiyuk, coming in with around a +4.76% exposure minus projected ownership. That projected ownership is only around 8.56% while his exposures are around 13.32%, making him a worthwhile option in all formats. The worst captain option tonight is Brock Purdy, who comes in at a -10.51% leverage gained. He projected for more ownership than Aiyuk at 21.37% while showing up in just 10.86% of winning lineups.

FLEX ownership distributions

The highest leverage captain tonight is Christian McCaffrey, coming in with around a +25.41% exposure minus projected ownership. The didn’t price up McCaffrey enough for this slate, so his ownership is going to put him in free square territory. The worst captain option tonight is Brock Purdy, who comes in at a -19.24% leverage lost. He projected for pretty considerable ownership at 64.12% while showing up in just 44.88% of winning lineups. Overall Brock Purdy looks bad whichever way you slice it.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• Christian McCaffrey is the free square tonight, though a better play in the FLEX than at CPT.
• It’s going to be interesting to see how people approach defense this week, as the 49ers and Cowboys both appear overvalued but may be overprojected in terms of ownership.
• There appears to be a lot more edge gained by SF players than DAL players, but as far as the main options go it pans out about even.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Pricing is a lot tighter this slate than we have had recently which is forcing a midrange captain construction. This is going to lead to kickers and mid-range TEs populating the captain slot while people force in the highest value combos on the slate. In the highest probable dupe lineups, we are seeing Jake Ferguson, George Kittle, and Brandon Aubrey as the most popular captains.

In the FLEX we have one main combo to deal with: Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, and Deebo Samuel. This combo of four players should make up a majority of the highest duplications surrounded by a mass of secondary WRs and kickers. As we saw with the CPT and FLEX leverage numbers above, Brock Purdy is the clear odd man out here, and avoiding him is going to help manage dupes.

Likewise, Dak Prescott is someone that projects fine but doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. There are routes in this game to avoiding both QBs and going with the running backs and WRs as your only pay ups.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This is a fun showdown with some good game theory concepts. Both of these teams sport strong defenses and game managing QBs that don’t aim to be explosive. There’s a chance this game sucks and doesn’t produce a lot of fantasy upside but there’s a lot of star power on both teams as well.

I think there’s a really easy way to just fade both QBs here. Pollard, Ceedee Lamb, and Christian McCaffrey make for robust options on this slate with just as much if not more upside than the respective quarterbacks. You could argue that Aiyuk and Deebo both enter than conversation as well. Especially considering the combined QB ownership on this slate will be something like 90% of all lineups, avoiding both is a pretty easy path to win equity without avoiding the best options.

As far as gamescript and looking at roster construction, the 49ers are a head above the Cowboys in terms of talent and scheme, so it’s hard not to lean that side. Going with a 4-2 SF stack with Aiyuk captain seems like a high upside path. On the other hand, a Ceedee Lamb captain with a 2-4 DAL lean could play as well. Either way, avoid the QBs and the gamescript matters less here.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Both QBs
• Both defenses

Some players that look undervalued:

• Brandon Aiyuk (CPT)
• Christian McCaffrey (should be 100%)
• Punts

Good luck and bink a unique

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