Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.
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Captain ownership distributions
Over multiple runs of the contest sims, the most consistent positive leverage at captain is Zach Charbonnet. In this specific run he should up in 15% of the winning lineups while his projected ownership at captain is only 10%, giving us about 5% positive leverage over the field. The other consistent pieces in terms of positive captain at leverage were Aubrey and Pollard, both also positive in this run.
I’ll note quickly that I think the captain ownership on Charbonnet is a bit aggressive here, meaning that we likely have more edge with him in this slot than the simulations are assuming.
The most consistent negative leverage at captain came from both Metcalf and Lockett and, frankly, the SEA passing game in general. This game feels very clear to go one direction, and that direction doesn’t involve a lot of passing upside for Geno Smith and the boys.
FLEX ownership distributions
The highest positive leverage at FLEX goes to CeeDee Lamb and, to a lesser degree, Dak Prescott. You’ll also find the secondary SEA scorers to be valuable here mostly because you have to have someone from the team in a lineup and the sims don’t want to dedicate much salary to them. Both Lamb and Prescott consistently make up the highest positive leverage pieces and are consistently above the 70% mark in winning lineup exposure.
The highest negative leverage in most runs I did went to Brandin Cooks, who is just gaining a bit too much ownership steam to make Cowboys stacks work out. His projected ownership is around 21% in the FLEX but he shows up less than 10% of the time in winning lineups in most runs.
A note here: Both SEA and DAL defenses show up as negative leverage a lot of the time but it’s 2023 showdown so we already know that one of them will be optimal. Just set a rule that has at least one of them in every lineup and move along.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
Looking at the ownership levels above, there actually doesn’t appear to be too high an aggregate set to avoid in this showdown. In laymans terms, I don’t expect a lot of heavy duping across more than just a couple lineups. Granted, I think the ownership is too low on DAL defense, but overall the secondary options and lack of SEA WR ownership is going to make for a spread out ownership slate.
The main FLEX combo that should have a bunch of duplications will be Prescott/Lamb/Pollard along with, I’m assuming, DAL defense. If you can stand to get off of Pollard or Dak that’s probably the most effective way to mitigate duplications in your portfolio. For the most part I think a focus on Dak/Lamb and a fade Pollard makes the most sense.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
This showdown is cut and dry. You’ll start lineups with Dak/Lamb/DAL-DST and then add in a cheap SEA player to round things out. Pick a kicker you want and a cheap DAL punt option and move along.
If you want to galaxy brain it you can play for a low scoring affair from both sides, and if you want to donate money to the cause you can play for a SEA win with a 4-2 lean and Charbonnet/SEA-DST correlation.
In closing, make sure that you avoid Dak/Pollard together because of duplication concerns and aim to be different with your captain if you can stand to do so. My favorite way to build things out is a 4-2 DAL lean with one of Metcalf/Lockett as a bring back and either Pollard or the Cowboys DST at captain.
Some players that look overvalued:
- Dak Prescott (CPT)
- DK Metcalf
- Dolly Parton builds (Double-Dst)
Some players that look undervalued:
- Zach Charbonnet (CPT)
- Noah Fant (savings)
- Dak/Ceedee (should be locked in, won’t be)
Good luck and bink a unique
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