Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Captain ownership distributions
Two of the main positive edges offered at Captain tonight are from Jospeh and Aubrey, the kickers, which is nothing new. Outside of them we have Rico Dowdle as a really interesting option. He has a 9.80% exposure rate in winning simulations as a Captain with just a 5.36% projected ownership at the slot.
The significant negative leverages at Captain are Prescott and Lamb with Nabers not far behind. I would say that all of these guys are still value Captain’s due to their upside but you have to make a lot of sacrifices to fit all of them without punting hard in the Flex. Especially on a slate with four expensive producers it makes it difficult to use any of them in the Captain.
One name that I think is pretty interesting from this set is Wan’Dale Robinson, who has a winning lineup exposure of 7.30%. That’s a pretty healthy number for a position player with his price and I think it unlocks a lot.
FLEX ownership distributions
A couple things stand out for me here: Lamb and Nabers are by far the highest edges offered at Flex, with edges offered in this set of sims of 16.10% and 13.09% respectively. They are about as close to locks on this slate as you can find. The other main observation is that every player who has a negative edge of 5% or greater is on DAL, which shows a lean towards the NYG side for relative value.
It’s also worth noting that while Daniel Jones shows up in less winning frames at Flex than Dak Prescott (49.30% vs. 61.30%) he has a higher edge offered here. The ownership difference is a bit too wide and Jones makes for the better option if ownership is right. More on that thought later.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
The Flex core here is going to be Nabers/Prescott/Lamb with some Singletary and Jones mixed in. People are mostly going to start with that QB+2 and figure out the value side after. It is of course worth noting that there are only four players who show up in 50%+ of the cash optimals meaning we will have spread out exposures and less dupes in general tonight. Don’t worry so much about your mitigations, just grab a couple leverage spots and move along.
the cash optimals have a clear lean towards the DAL side though we should expect Singletary to get mixed in. I think one of the things that you can do on this slate to instantly be different is go with Jones instead of Dak and flip the script a bit. Avoiding any of Nabers/Dak/Lamb is going to automatically give you massive relative value and Dak vs. Jones is a way easier 1v1 to justify than Nabers/Lamb against any individual player.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
I think a lot of this showdown honestly just comes down to where you think ownership will go. The ownership projections are pretty clear that people want to build, at least through optimizers, with a lean towards the DAL side. That’s the public side for sure. But does that hold up when most everything I have seen from an analysis standpoint is pushing NYG as undervalued? I’m not sure.
Either way, I think there are a couple of good plays we can make within the confines of either outcome:
- I really like the concept of Devin Singletary at Captain. DAL has by far the worst run defense in the league so far and Singletary has had strong usage along with an expected PPR average of 14.62. He’s underpriced and undervalued and makes for a great mid-range Captain. You can make some really unique builds going with Singletary CPT along with NYG DST in the Flex.
- I feel pretty strongly that there is no reason to prioritize Dak over Jones. You are starting your builds with Lamb+Nabers and that’s basically non-negotiable, so if you are low on salary you have to choose between the QBs. Based on medians, ceilings, and correlations to their WR1s you just go with the cheaper Jones here.
- This game could suck and I don’t think enough people are focusing on that outcome. Building with at least one kicker and defense in a lineup is going to give you a different build path with a lot of salary for the three studs that you want.
My favorite build is Singletary Captain with the NYG DST and filling in with various high owned options.
Overvalued:
- Dak Prescott
- Brandin Cooks
- Jalen Tolbert
Undervalued:
- Devin Singletary (CPT)
- Dnaiel Jones
- Wan’Dale Robinson
Good luck and bink a unique
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Sign up or upgrade your membership below!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.