NFL DFS Week Recap and Team Notes

Welcome to the NFL DFS recap and notes! This article will be posted every Wednesday. the aim here is to look back at the last week of NFL DFS action and give some insight or situations to monitor on every team. Likewise, there will be a short breakdown of the DFS slate overall and how the Paydirt Range of Outcomes model (found here) did. if you have any questions feel free to reach out in the discord or on twitter at @Paydirt_DFS.

NFL DFS main slate recap

A couple notes about the stacks projections:

• Baltimore and Arizona show up towards the top frequently because of Lamar and Kyler having such high mediand and baselines
• KC projected a tad lower because baselines were spread out due to uncertainty of the target tree
• SF is super run heavy and will likely project badly as a stack because of it

Main Slate thoughts: The chalk absolutely crushed, so it was a bad week to be contrarian (It’s me, I’m contrarian). Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley, and Michael Pittman Jr. all had fantastic results and the lwoer owned pivots around them mostly faltered. Likewise, CIN should have failed as a stack but ran 100 plays from scrimmage and got there in the end. Overall, this outcome hurts in the short term but will solidify confirmation bias and make the week 2 over-certainties that much stronger.

Looking ahead, there will be some massive chalk in week two. Saquon Barkley, Mike Evans, and Ja’Marr Chase will likely all be heavily owned along with NO/TB stacks.

Team Notes

ARI

• Greg Dortch? Okay then.
• Marquise Brown generally underwhelming.
• Kyler healthy rush marketshare (30%) with just Conner/Eno as RBs.
• This offense might suck until it’s healthy.

ATL

• Cordarrelle Patterson is still “that dude”.
• Kyle Pitts and Drake London 1A/1B.
• Mariota rushed 12 (!!) times, so that’s pretty wild.
• Pass rates (Adj and redzone) look bad so stacking will be hard.

BAL

• Top 5 in aggressiveness of throws (new stat, look out for that later).
• Pretty spread out, but Andrews and Bateman above the rest.
• Kenyan Drake heavily lead the backfield, but JK Dobbins will be back soon.
• Demarcus Robinson might be ahead of James Proche, which seems bad for James Proche?

BUF

• Took it out and just laid it on the Rams’ shoulder.
• Zack Moss surprisingly very involved in passing game (19% share).
• No surprises with the rushing work.
• McKenzie didn’t separate from Crowder at all (3 and 4 targets respectively)

CAR

• Predicted that Robbie Anderson would out-target DJ Moore and he did.
• McCaffrey usage as expected (76% rush, 20% targets).
• Super pass heavy between the 20s (78% adj) but just 25% pass in redzone.

CHI

• Most aggressive team in the league with 14% explosive attempts.
• Justin Fields 11 rushing attempts is really nice too.
• Offense relatively spread out but weather was limiting.
• The volume might not be there, but this offense will be good for fantasy.
• Going to say right now that Justin Fields > Trey Lance for ROS.

CIN

• Joe Mixon dominated marketshare of rushing work (96% for RBs).
• Tee Higgins concussion, but expect him to be cleared for week 2.
• 61 pass attempts is a lot, but on 54% adj rate.
• Not going to adjust much, we know who they are.

CLE

• Donovan Peoples-Jones target leader! Neat. 32% marketshare.
• Second lowest pass rate (46.88% adjusted) only ahead of CHI.
• This won’t be a stack worth utilizing.

DAL

• Dak injury hurts but I’m not sure how much?
• Zeke/Pollard split was as expected.
• Noah Brown with nine targets is a worthwhile flier moving forward.
• Overall the ceiling is lower but CeeDee Lamb should be fine.

DEN

• Javonte Williams 12 targets? guy just lived in the flat.
• Targets broke out mostly as expected outside of that, albeit a bit spread out.
• MGIII with more carries and red zone work, as expected.
• Need to look more into the Javonte targets thing, but nothing else special.

DET

• Amon-Ra 12 targets, DJ Chark 8, Hockenson 7, and then everyone else.
• Very low pass rate in terms of the adjusted sample both between the 20s and redzone.
• Swift/Williams pretty even split but Williams got significantly more redzone work?
• Condensed offense worthwhile to stack in large field.

GB

• Really hard to get a read here.
  • Seven players with at least 3 targets and AJ Dillon most targets with 6.
  • Speaking of Dillon, more carries and targets than Jones is worth noting.
  • Need to pay attention here this week.

HOU

• Super ugly targets distribution, with eight guys under a 10% share.
• Rex Burkhead with 14 carries and 8 targets (Pierce 11 and 1).
• Below average pass rate and super average aggressiveness on throws.
  • This team is just Cooks and then whatever.

IND

• Jonathan Taylor 31 carries but also 7 targets! Killer usage.
  • Below expectation in pass rate, as expected.
  • Kylen Granson? The TE over Mo-Alie Cox.
  • Lots of mouths to feed here outside of Taylor who should be elite.

JAC

• Christian Kirk 12 targets, Zay Jones 9, Marvin Jones 7. Mostly expected.
  • James Robinson 11 carries, Travis Eitienne just 4.
  • Team was among the most pass heavy in the league (77.27% adjusted)
  • Going to be a solid stack all year.

KC

• Absolutely bitch slapped the Cardinals and spread out the ball doing it.
• Travis Kelce and Juju Smith Schuster led with 23% and 20% of targets respectively.
• Isaih Pacheco had 12 carries, but 10 came after the Chiefs benched starters.
• Team looks like they don’t miss Tyreek one bit.

LAC

• Keenan Allen injury is not serious
• No one above a 12% targetshare, which is fucking gross.
• Ekeler around a 60% rushing marketshare which was about as expected.
• Still in on Mike Williams, but we need to see him own it against KC on Thursday.

LAR

• Cooper Kupp 36% targetshare and Allen Robinson just 2 targets.
• Darrell Henderson with 13 carries and 5 targets is very nice.
• Above average pass rate, below average aggressiveness.
• Have to see if Robinson can establish as a legit WR2.

LV

• Davante Adams with a fucking 46% targetshare (17 targets) lol.
• Josh Jacobs around 75% rushing work, as expected.
• Very pass heavy in all regards (78% adjusted, 87% redzone).
• Going to play a lot like GB last year but with Waller upside.

MIA

• Tyreek 36% targetshare (12 targets) , Waddle and Edmonds around 15%, everyone else.
• Chase Edmonds 12 carries and 4 targets is pretty nice, that’s a good role.
• Mike Gesicki complete afterthought.
• Pass Heavy between the 20s, run heavy in the redzone, will be an inconsistent offense to stack.

MIN

• Justin Jefferson nuke with 35% targetshare (11 targets) with no one else above 5.
• Dalvin Cook 20 carries and 5 targets, great usage.
• Pass rate a tad above average, aggressiveness well below though.
• Assume we will see a more even distribution of Jefferson/Thielen moving forward.
• That said, offense looks great, lots of good places to focus here.

NE

• Trainwreck of a team in real life and fantasy.
• Nine players targeted and no one above 6 targets total.
• Aggressive when throwing and good redzone pass rate, but low pass rate overall (52.17% adjusted)
• Ty Mont injury opens up room for Rhomndre to shine if coaching staff doesn’t introduce Pierre Strong.
• Not a lot worth focusing on here.

NO

• Kamara 9 carries and 4 targets ain’t gunna cut it.
• Jarvis Landry and Michael thomas lead with 9 and 8 targets respectively.
• About average in terms of pass rate but very aggressive when throwing (8.17% above average)
• Team is very easy to stack with a skinny target tree and lots of upside.

NYG

• Saquon Barkley with 18 carries for a million yards and 7 targets is awesome.
• The Giants having Richie James as their second most targeted player seems…. really fucking not awesome.
• Third lowest registered pass rate in the redzone, below average between the 20s.
• Third least aggressive team in the league in terms of throwing as well.
• It’s not fuckin great Bob.

NYJ

• Threw the ball 60 times in regulation, which is insane considering it was a close-ish game.
• However, had just 286 air yards good for the third lowest mark in the league.
• Both RBs (Breece Hall and Michael Carter) had 9+ targets, Carter had 10 carries.
• No one over a 17% targetshare is not great though, even with the volume.
• That said, they had 12 passes and 0 runs in the redzone, so there’s upside here.

PHI

• Jalen Hurts with 17 rushing attempts. All three RBs had just 19 total. lol
• AJ Brown with 13 targets (40% targetshare) with no one else above 4.
• Can probably just slap this down right next to “Skinny Stack” in the DFS dictionary.
• There will be opportunities for Goedert but I would be worried about Devonta Smith.

PIT

• Diontae Johnson 12 targets, Pat Friermuth 10, everyone else 6 or less.
• Very aggressive with throws at 5.61% above league average.
• A tad below average in pass rate overall.
• Should be an easy offense to figure out for DFS, though stacks don’t look great.

SEA

• Geno Smith looked pretty good! 6 rushes and efficient throwing.
• Targetshare broke down as expected: Metcalf, Lockett, Fant, etc.
• Rashaad Penny 90% of rushes and 10% targetshare.
• Bad news: second least aggressive throwing team in the league.
• Overall there will be upside for Metcalf and Penny in this offense.

SF

• Trey Lance with 13 rushing attempts obviously pretty great.
• Elijah Mitchell injury leads to a bunch of work for Jeff Wilson Jr.
• George Kittle likely back this week and should slider into #2 in the order behind Deebo.
• Team was exceptionally run heavy and profiles to continue that trend.

TB

• Chris Godwin injured (again) and Mike Evans 26% targetshare was healthy.
• Leonard Fournette with 21 rushing attempts and a couple targets.
• Surprisingly the fourth most run heavy team in the league, but second most aggressive on throws.
• Interesting situation with the run heavy gameplan, be careful when stacking here.

TEN

• Kyle Phillips with 9 targets (27% targetshare) with no one else eclipsing 5.
• Derrick Henry dominated rushing attempts (91%), but Dontrell Hilliard two receiving TDs.
• Team was aver in aggressiveness and adjusted pass rate, but heavier in the redzone.
• This is a weird offense. Inclination is to buy low on Henry.
• That said, they could just really suck, so?

WAS

• Antonio Gibson with 14 carries and eight targets is terrific.
• Curtis Samuel with 11 targets (23% targetshare) with Terry McLaurin just 4.
• Logan Thomas and Jahan Dotson involved as well.
• Pass heavy in the redzone and a tad above average in aggressiveness.
• This is a hard team to stack but there’s definitely upside if you get lucky on the pieces.
• Antonio Gibson is a legit upside play until Robinson is back.