NFL DFS Week 11 Thoughts and Notes

James McCool

5 years ago

Quarterback

The Good: Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Justin Fields

The KC/DAL game currently has an O/U of 55.5 which is five points higher than any other game on the slate, so putting focus there makes a lot of sense
Other games with high totals are CIN/LV and BUF/IND, so QBs from those games and specifically the QBs on the more pass heavy sides are going to be options on this slate that you want to aim for first
When considering price, Prescott and Burrow are the priority targets here with Allen and Mahomes being more difficult to get to
The odd duck here is Justin Fields, but with no Allen Robinson his target tree is very skinny and his rushing upside is undeniable no matter how bad Nagy is at unlocking it for him
The Bears are one of the highest leverage positions on the slate and something worth considering

The Bad: Kyler Murray, Ryan Tannehill, Aaron Rodgers

Murray returns to the starting position this week, though he will be without Deandre Hopkins
That actually might increase his upside and the upside of Cardinals stacks since he will have less options and specifically less reliability to depend on, so he will need to have a more narrow target tree
Regardless, he’s certainly a tier below the good QBs
Tannehill is basically surrounded by duds and AJ Brown, so it’s hard to have confidence in him in this spot even if it’s pretty good
Aaron Rodgers is probably fine, and always has upside, but the play for GB is AJ Dillon while the stacks exist elsewhere
I suppose you can play Rodgers if that’s your thing but it’s better to just have Davante Adams/Justin Jefferson as a secondary stack if you want to be different

The Good: AJ Dillon, Nick Chubb, Mark Ingram, Miles Sanders, Jeff Wilson Jr.

AJ Dillon is going to be super heavy chalk and it’s entirely deserved
Vegas is projecting him in the same realm as McCaffrey this week and he should be at least $1,500 more expensive if not $2,000
Nick Chubb finds himself in a position against a lowly Lions squad that is even more lowly-er with no Jared Goff, so the Browns being in a solid position here and having no Kareem Hunt should afford him a lot of opportunity to run up a nice fantasy outting
Mark Ingram was a fringe play last week, but after Ty Montgomery went down he got 20% of the targetshare for the team and it’s going to make him considerably better this week even with a modest price increase
Jeff Wilson Jr. is going to be the lead back for the 49ers in a solid spot against the Jaguars and is obviously underpriced, though this is the most volatile piece of chalk on the slate IMO
Miles Sanders is a really interesting piece here and a perfect pivot off Wilson if you aren’t sold on him at nearly the same price
The Eagles have been one of the run heaviest teams in the league over the last four weeks and Sanders should step right into a 60/60 (rush yards/td percentages) role here and it pushes his projection up into a great value

The Bad: Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift

While I was right about McCaffrey stepping into a less than perfect role last week, he ran like god and got there anyway
I’m going to continue to be conservative on him as I think he’s an $8k RB at this point and not a $9k one, and with a slate with so many RB options in the mid and low range, there’s no reason to eat that $1k difference in salary
Jonathan Taylor is really good, and might be a Derrick Henry unicorn, but the usage continues to be concerning and his outcomes have been heavily influenced by TD luck
With Jamaal Williams returning we should see Swift fall back a bit

The Good: KC/DAL Stacks, Tee Higgins, Christian Kirk, Tyler Lockett, Corey Davis

The KC/DAL game should get a lot of your attention as that’s where the most potential is on this slate
Tee Higgins continues to get massive shares of the air yards for the Bengals and they have one of the best team totals on the slate, so he’s projecting exceptionally well
With no Deandre Hopkins, we can expect Kirk to take on the alpha role as he has in the past which gives him a very nice projection for his price, which is around $500-$750 or so too cheap with relatively low ownership
Tyler Lockett has quietly been an aDOT god for the Seahawks and looks to be way underpriced and underowned in this spot assuming that Russell Wilson is not terrible for a second week in a row
Higgins and Lockett are essentially the exact same play today, though we can expect Lockett to be about half as highly owned
Corey Davis is one of my favorite GPP plays today with Flacco at QB, since he profiles a lot like the kind of WR that Flacco has found success with in the past and is the obvious WR1 in this “offense” when he’s healthy

The Bad: Cole Beasley, Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel

Cole Beasley just doesn’t have much upside overall even if he’s on the cheaper end of things
Davante Adams is projecting at higher ownership than Tyreek Hill which is just not right and makes him a pretty easy fade considering the circumstances of the slate
Deebo is awesome, but on an offense like the 49ers you need everything to go right to find a ceiling and I would prefer to just avoid the receivers there entirely

The Good: Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, Cole Kmet, Dalton Schultz

There is a common theme here in using the TEs in the good games to stack
The only weird one is Cole Kmet, but the guy is just getting killer usage and it should be even better with no Allen Robinson

The Bad: Dan Arnold, TJ Hockenson, Tyler Conklin

Arnold is getting plenty of work, but the Jaguars are just a bag of dicks, and it hurts his upside
Copy and paste what I just said about Arnold but replace him with Hockenson and Jaguars with Lions
Conklin ran hot last week with touchdown equity and I don’t expect that to continue for him

Just play who fits, but it’s also worth putting down in writing that you should almost always be using a defense against teams that are pass heavy
More pass attempts lead to more chances for sacks and interceptions which are all that matter for DST in fantasy