Happy NHL Barn Burner day everyone. The sharpest players in the world will be in on this slate. It will likely play quite a bit differently – and much tighter to the projections – than usual.
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 5 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
- There’s a pretty strong consensus around CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Voronkov) as chalk tonight and I agree. I them at the same 25-27% in large field and 32-35% in the $555. They have some bonkers projections facing an Anaheim team that is awful defensively, is at the top of the league in penalties taken per game, on a road B2B, and likely starting their backup goaltender. I also expect CBJ2 (Monahan/Jenner/Chinakov) to garner 9-10% ownership as one of the most popular cheap filler lines. There’s a few points to make here. The first is that the Columbus Power Play has been very fluid recently. They used 5 different combinations the last time out – and the coach indicated to expect more Yegor Chinakov (2500) on the power play tonight. I have no idea who would come off for him, but my guess would be Fantilli (that’s what happened last time out). The Columbus Power Play is also 31st in expected goals for, 31st in total shot attempts, and dead last in high danger chances. They project incredibly well, they are the obvious leverage point on the slate, and I expect the ownership on them in the $555 to be completely bonkers. I would not suggest playing them because it’s a great power play spot though.
- I’m going to quickly talk about what I see happening if we get confirmation that Chinakov will be on PP1. I would expect the field to put him on top of their CBJ1 + Werenski stacks or go with Monahan/Chinakov/Marchenko/Voronkov/Werenski. They will do this in order to play either A) a one-off such as Nathan MacKinnon or Austin Matthews or B) a Crosby/Rakell 2-man or something like that.
- Speaking of Penguins – I see PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Rakell) as the second most popular stack on the slate. They are cheap enough that you can play either CBJ1 (while punting a D spot) or CBJ2 with them. I would expect CBJ2 with Werenski to be the chalk combination there. Werenski only plays 45% of his minutes with the top line – so he shares the ice with everyone. It’s definitely a strong spot for PIT, they project very well, and the 15-17% ownership in all formats is very fair. I think UTA1 (Schmaltz/Keller/Peterka) looks pretty good too at about half to one-third the ownership. They haven’t been great, but Boston is always a strong power play spot.
- I also expect the Anaheim side to get some steam here. They were 12% owned last night in the big $5 despite projecting terribly. The public loves playing this team regardless. Our projections like ANH3 (Terry/Granlund/Vatrano) and ANH2 (McTavish/Kreider/Sennecke) quite a bit here, but I suspect I will be under the field on them. Our model and matchups tool loves this game as a whole – but so does the field. It’s a big slate with the prizes to match tonight. I think full fading this game is the sharp move – especially in the $555. I just see the entire game as overvalued.
- Ok so let’s get into some alternatives here. If you want a straight pivot away from CBJ1, I think NYR1 (Zibanejad/Panarin/Lafreniere) or NYR PP (Trocheck/Panarin/Lafreniere) are a pretty strong play tonight. NYR2 (Trocheck/Miller/Sheary) is also in play as a cheaper line. I know, I know – I’ve spent multiple paragraphs over the last week tearing them apart, but I think they are in a very similar spot to CBJ1 tonight at about 1/5 the ownership. They face a Vancouver team that cannot stay out of the Penalty box, just traded Quinn Hughes, and has a bottom 3 Penalty Kill. They did just get all-world goalie Thatcher Demko back, but the Rangers project fairly well around the industry (our model does not like them) and I suspect recency bias keeps their ownership lower than it should be. They have all kinds of issues moving the puck without Fox, their Power Play has been ass all year, and Zibanejad isn’t creating high-danger chances. However, I think they are a strong play in all formats if you don’t want to play an expensive line tonight.
- So there is a group of lines that are extremely expensive – but also seem (mostly) underowned tonight. Those lines are COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Lehkonen), TOR1 (Matthews/Nylander/Kneis), EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins), and MIN1 (Eriksson Ek/Kaprizov/Boldy). I expect MacKinnon and Matthews to have double-digit ownership on their own, but the lines as a whole to come in with low ownership numbers. COL, MIN, and TOR are all in strong spots. COL is in an elite matchup against this awful SEA team. However they have been mixing up the lines before and during the game, they keep mixing up the power play, and I could see MacKinnon/Nelson/Landeskog power play combinations getting some steam due to the sub-20K price. TOR is in a strong spot against the Bedard-less Blackhawks who are committing plenty of penalties as well. EDM has started to round into form and is facing their former teammate in the turnstile that is Stuart Skinner. MIN is probably in the toughest even strength matchup and has the worst projections around the Industry. However they are missing quite a few guys, they just traded for generational Power Play defensemen Quinn Hughes, and this WSH Penalty Kill has been absolutely awful all year. Considering they are missing 3 defensemen and loaded up the top line – I would expect very heavy minutes from MIN1 tonight against a weak goalie in Charlie Lindgren. If you want to save, Vladimir Tarasenko is very viable as a cheap addition to a MIN stack. Our projections prefer TOR1 – and I think I agree with that. However, there is definitely merit to any of these stacks. I just view COL1 as somewhat overvalued considering the volatility.
- As far as cheaper lines go, our model likes ANH2, ANH3, CBJ2, and TOR2 (Tavares/McMann/Robertson). SJ2 (Wennberg/Toffoli/Eklund) and EDM2 (Draisaitl/Podkolzin/Savoie) are probably the chalk cheap lines at around 10% in large fields and 12-15% in events like the $555. I like both VAN3 (Kane/Sherwood/O’Connor) and PHI3 (Cates/Michkov/Brink) as cheap filler stacks with little to no ownership. Line Marketshares agrees.
- I just concluded a study of large field GPPs so far this season. What you see on these bigger slates among top finishing lineups is two big themes – expensive stacks and/or cheap power play stacks. In reference to the latter, I would say that both PHI and CGY Power Plays are spots to look at. Both units have been awful, but the prices are cheap enough to fit other high-ceiling plays. CGY1, SJ2, and PHI3 fit this meta.
Synopsis
It’s tough to define what the chalk lineup down to the player will be – but I can confidently say that everything Columbus Power Play-related is chalk. They will likely have monster ownership in the $555 as well. It could be over 30%. It’s a good spot, but it’s also a big slate and the field likely loves everything about this game due to how much the public loves these teams. I think the sharp move is to slap your balls on the table and go elsewhere, but to each their own. You could 6-man stack Columbus too, but I would not given how bad their Power Play has been. I think taking advantage of depressed ownership on the Rangers is a strong idea, UTA1 looks pretty good, and PIT1 is an outright better play. There’s plenty of value to spend up tonight.
In larger fields, I think either playing the expensive stacks or the cheap power play stacks is the sharp thing to do. All of TOR1, MIN1, and EDM1 look like strong plays. WSH1 and NYR1/PP seem like pretty strong plays in the mid-tier. Cheaper CGY or PHI Power Play stacks also fit with what has been winning. I’m probably sticking to 4-man stacks tonight unless I’m going with EDM, SJ, CGY or TOR.
Defense
- Zach Werenski look about 30% owned in large fields and 35% in the $555. He’s the clear chalk and seems fine. However, I do think playing Mateyechuk or Provorov with a CBJ1 stack is a sharp thing to do if you insist on playing a bunch of chalk. The popular pairings are likely to be Jackson LaCombe (5300), min-price PP1 defensemen Matt Grzelcyk (2500), and John “The Gargoyle” Klingberg at 12-15% each. I’m totally fine playing Grzelcyk in all fields. I might be too high on his ownership, but I just see this as a sharper field than usual.
- Both Cale Makar (8200) and Quinn Hughes (7000) are reasonable alternatives to Werenski here. Evan Bouchard (6700), Erik Karlsson (5800), Rasmus Andersson (5700), and Morgan Reilly (4800) are also reasonable options. All of these guys are probably 8-12% owned, so nothing to really care about.
- Your cheap PP defensemen are: Matt Grzelcyk (2500), Jamie Drysdale (3300), and John Klingberg (3400)
- I do not hate playing Drysdale at all. He sucks, but is actually on both power play units. There is a lot of value in that and he is likely no higher than 3% everywhere.
- If you want to be different and play some guys from #teamNonPP: Brock Faber (4600), Jacob Trouba (4400), Darnell Nurse (4300), Matthias Ekholm (4200), Travis Sanheim (4100), Devon Toews (3800), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3700), Vladislav Gavrikov (3400), Jared Spurgeon (3300), and Olen Zelwegger (3200) are all guys that project pretty well.
- If you want dirt cheap guys – Alex Carrier (2700) should be out there a bunch with Matheson out. Damon Severson (2700) projects ok as a contrarian Columbus guy. Rasmus Ristolainen (2500) isn’t a shooter, but is returning from LTIR tonight. He will be on 3rd pairing, but is too good for this price.
Synopsis: I think playing an expensive guy and a dirt cheap guy is fine. I’m not certain on Grzelcyk’s ownership, but my guess is 8-12% in all formats. I’ve tossed all kind of shade at Klingberg, but he’s fine here. It will be a sharper field than usual. There’s a lot of merit to playing some of these contrarian guys that shoot like Faber, Trouba, and Nurse though. Drysdale also looks great.
Goalies
- My guess is that all of Thatcher Demko (7200), Dustin Wolf (7300), Filip Gustavsson (7500), Jet Greaves (7600), and Mackenzie Blackwood (8100) get 8-12%
- The game theory play is definitely Husso. Columbus shoots a ton. Philip Grubauer has had quite a few great nights against the team that kicked him to the curb after winning a title. Wolf, Husso, Blackwood, and Askarov would be my choices.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- The chalk is CBJ1 or CBJ Power Play with Werenski. PIT1 also carries quite a bit of ownership, but the ANH/CBJ game is the one where I worry about ownership.
- I think you load up on ANH/CBJ, just play Werenski, or fade it entirely.
- Despite how bad they’ve been – I think the Rangers are underowned here. It’s a pretty strong spot for them. Any of the power play guys are viable against what I believe will be a chalky Demko.
- As long as you don’t play CBJ2 – I think the expensive stacks in TOR1, COL1, MIN1, and EDM1 look great. Lehkonen is going to bring down the ownership on COL1 and I just don’t think there’s anybody else the field is fired up about playing on the cheap end besides maybe SJ2.
- Werenski is fine, but there are plenty of options on the high end at defense. I’m not concerned about his ownership outside of a CBJ stack, but Hughes and Makar are also in strong spots.
- CGY and PHI are two cheap power plays that I think make interesting stacks tonight.
NHL Synopsis
For something like the NHL $555 I think you either game stack ANH/CBJ or strongly consider playing only Werenski/leaving it alone. There are other big totals. NYR1/PP, MIN1, COL1, TOR1, and EDM1 all look like strong plays. I think VAN3, PHI3, ANH2, and ANH3 make solid filler stacks tonight and Grzelcyk/Klingberg present strong value at defense. SJ2 looks good, but that’s a lot of ownership for a Sharks line without their best player
In larger fields, I think the field will concentrate on the ANH/CBJ game – and this will result in ANH being over owned. I pretty much like the same stuff as above except throw in the cheap PP stacks of CGY/PHI and WSH1/2. Edmonton and Minnesota are my top large field plays because they are in worse matchups than COL and TOR.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm