Welcome back to another day of NHL DFS. We have a small 4 game slate that’s pretty straight-forward tonight.
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 3 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
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NHL DFS Lines
- The clear chalk on this slate is the New York Rangers going into Chicago to face a penalty-happy Blackhawks team whose goaltending has fallen off after a hot start. I have NYR1 (Zibanejad/Panarin/Lafreniere) at 25% ownership and NYR2 (Trochek/Miller/Sheary) at 21%. Chicago is 2nd in high danger chances allowed over the last 20 games and dead last by expected goals allowed over that same span. All of their lines have pretty dreadful season-long defensive numbers as well. However, it’s not like the Rangers have been lighting the world on fire – even when they had Trochek and Fox healthy. Since Fox went down they are 29th in expected goals for, 31st in high danger chances for, and 30th in shots on goal for. They are really struggling to move the puck and create offense. They’re also bottom 10 in penalties drawn and have a bottom 10 power play this year. They project really well industry-wide, but it’s pretty easy to see this going wrong. You’re basically relying on Chicago sucking.
- The most popular pairings with the Rangers will be UTA1 (Schmaltz/Peterka/Keller) or a Calgary power play stack with Nazem Kadri (6200) and two of Huberdeau (4200), Coranato (4800), or Frost (4000) with chalk Rasmus Andersson (5400). FLA2 (Bennett/Marchand/Verhaege) looks like the most popular pairing with NYR2. I do not have a problem with Florida or Calgary on this slate at all. UTA1 seems fine, but the 20+% ownership I have on them seems a little rich. I’d rather spend that ownership on FLA.
- Bottom line – I think DET/CGY is by far the best game on the slate. It should have the best pace on the slate and features two teams that both draw and commit plenty of penalties. The ownership isn’t low on either of these teams, but it’s not above 15-16% on any line either. The Red Wings penalty kill is much improved this year (It had nowhere to go but up) and the Flames power play has been awful all year, but I don’t mind a full Calgary power play stack here. I think they have 3 playable lines as well. It’s a tough matchup for whomever faces the Seider/Edvinsson pairing from DET, but that should be CGY3 – who goes up against top competition at home. Therefore, I think this is a pretty advantageous spot for the top 2 Calgary lines, and thus their Power Play as well.
- This could also be a blow up spot for the DET Power Play as well. Calgary has issues staying out of the box, their PK has been bad, their goaltending is shaky, and the Detroit Power Play is top-5 in the NHL. It’s very expensive, but we do have a couple value lines on this slate that I like. Any combination of their 5 power play guys makes a lot of sense on this slate. I prefer DET2 from an even strength standpoint though. I was aghast to see Andrew Copp in the top 10 of the league in points per 60 minutes. He is having an excellent offensive season and is not someone I would leave off the stack.
- Our matchups tool likes the Rangers and Red Wings the best. Florida, the Kings, and Calgary also look good.
- Ok so let’s talk about the Kings I guess. All of LAK1 (Kempe/Kopitar/Laferriere), LAK2 (Fiala/Byfield/Armia), and LAK3 (Danault/Moore/Foegele) are creating shots at an above average rate or better. It’s a terrible game pace, but line marketshares does like both LAK1 and LAK2. LAK3 is one of my favorite value lines on the slate. Danault/Moore lines have generally been above average creation-wise over a multi-year sample and Seattle has been trying to hide the Chandler Stephenson line against opponents’ depth. I think they’re a reasonable choice to pair with an expensive Detroit Power Play stack. Seattle’s also started taking their fair share of penalties – and their PK is dreadful as always. I think a Kings power play stack is a reasonable pivot away from Calgary at roughly the same price when you include the defensemen. Seattle plays lower event hockey, but they really suck.
- Chicago is the clear leverage play on this slate. However, we’ve seen a pattern in large field GPPs of these stacks getting more ownership than they should. I think CHI1 or CHI PP is an ultra-sharp way to play smaller fields, but tread carefully in the big $5. I’ll be moving CHI up and LAK down in my next update.
Synopsis:
This is a tough smaller field slate, but I lean toward fading the Rangers – or at least playing NYR2 instead. They project the best, but it is a much shakier spot than it looks on the surface. I prefer something like FLA/CGY if you want to play it chalky.
In large fields, the DET/CGY game is clearly the best game environment. That’s where I would be focusing my efforts. I also think the Kings don’t get that much ownership against this awful Seattle team. They make a great pivot away from CGY. My favorite pay-up stack is the DET Power Play. The ownership is pretty flat after the Rangers though.
NHL Defense
- Rasmus Andersson (5400) is the clear chalk defensemen at 28-30% ownership. Vince Dunn (4500) and Moritz Seider (6300) come in behind him at around 23% each.
- I don’t mind the ownership on Seider in this spot. I do think Mikhail Sergachev is a reasonable alternative for all field sizes though.
- Cheap PP Guys: Drew Doughty (3500), Artyom Levshunov (3200)
- A few non-PP guys I like: Brandt Clarke (4000), Ben Chiarot (3200), Gustav Forsling (3100), Yan Kuznetsov (3000), Alex Vlasic (2700), Ryan Lindgren (2500)
Synopsis: In smaller fields – I would just play Seider. I think he’s the strongest play. Andersson seems overowned. Doughty and Levshunov make sense in all field sizes if you want to save salary, but you shouldn’t need it on this slate.
NHL Goalies
- Igor Shesterkin (8100) is the clear chalk at about 30%. Kuemper probably comes in around 20% and Knight at 15%.
- I have no real preference, but whomever is in net for DET probably has the highest ceiling on the slate.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- The Rangers are the clear chalk. They project well and Chicago is bad – but the Rangers are also bad. They are your first decision point on the slate.
- The popular pairings will be UTA1, FLA2, and Calgary power play stacks.
- I think the DET/CGY game is the best spot and where I will focus my exposure. It projects to be the highest event, highest ceiling, and most variant.
- I suspect the Kings will come in underowned due to the terrible game environment and Chicago becoming the popular sharp play. I like them quite a bit as a sharp pivot away from CGY.
- I think a 5-man Calgary stack makes quite a bit of sense once again
- DET1 probably comes in lower owned than they should due to the matchup with Backlund/Coleman. They are a strong large field GPP spot.
- Playing two cheap skaters in order to jam an expensive one-off makes a lot of sense on slates like this where little seperates the lines as a whole.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – it depends what you want to do with the Rangers. There are compelling reasons to believe they’re pretty shaky chalk. The ownership probably drops off quite a bit in smaller fields after them. DET1 or DET2 look like strong small field plays, but I don’t hate a 5-man Calgary stack again either.
In large fields, it’s pretty wide open. I will be fading the Rangers though. DET/CGY is my favorite spot and larger DET stacks are my top plays of the slate. I also really like Kings stacks as somebody that doesn’t get enough ownership while Chicago gets too much. The direct leverage plays have been getting too popular in large field GPPs. I’d rather just play Bedard as a one-off or something.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm