Welcome to Wednesday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a pretty straight-forward 5 game slate today. Let’s get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 5 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
- The big news on this slate is that Jack Eichel (C, 8500) and Shea Theodore (D, 5200) are out for Vegas tonight. That definitely creates value from Vegas – and the ownership will concentrate there. VGK2 (Barbashev/Hertl/Dorofeyev looks like the clear chalk at around 25% owned. It’s hard to dislike the price, projection, and matchup for them tonight. Other outlets have lines like DET1 (Larkin/Raymond/Finnie) or UTA1 (Schmaltz/Keller/Peterka) with 18-22% ownership. I don’t really buy that myself. I don’t think the field wants to stack a line against the Seider/Edvinsson pairing that has been so good for Detroit. I’m also not really buying that the field will stack a DET line at a huge rate without Alex DeBrincat (7800). I suspect the chalk build is most likely to be some sort of VGK Power Play or 5-man stack (Stone/Marner/Dorofeyev/Hertl/Barbashev or Hanifin) with two guys from CAR2 (Stankoven/Blake/Ehlers) and a spend-up defensemen. The field will look at the game logs and see that CAR2 blew up the Predators recently. I don’t mind CAR2, but the Hurricanes spread out the playing time between 4 lines to such a degree that it tends to spread out whatever scoring there ends up being.
- I think the Vegas chalk is extremely strong here. I suspect anything that does not allow you to play Vegas will see suppressed ownership. The name of the game is always concentrated scoring – and we do have two teams in DET and WPG that offer this tonight. We also have quite a few cheap lines that project as strong values in our models and across the Industry. I do not think WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi) with Morrissey (5700) or a DET PP stack (Larkin/Raymond/DeBrincat/Seider) are necessarily going to be low owned, but the things you end up playing those combinations with will be. Additionally, I have a hard time playing DeBrincat without Copp tonight. Andrew Copp has been incredibly productive and is still very cheap at 3.5K. Utah plays at a slower pace, but the concentrated scoring and awful goaltending of UTA offset that to a degree. I don’t think any elaboration is necessary about this spot for WPG. The Blues suck. Moving on…
- If you need a cheaper line I think a Stamkos/Wood/Skjei, NSH3, FLA3, or a Perfitti/Neiderreiter/Pionk and/or Samberg combination is a fine way to go. All of these project pretty well.
- There are two lines that really catch my eye for larger fields tonight – and those are FLA2 (Bennett/Verhaege/Marchand) and NSH1/PP (O’Reilly/Forsberg/Evangelista, Stamkos, or Marchesseault. FLA2 has absolutely run over it’s opponents to the tune of 4.12 expected goals and 67 shot attempts per 60. The Kings are a decent defensive team, but those are really solid numbers for a 17.6K line with full Power Play Correlation around 10% ownership. NSH1 is a bit of a different story. They have been excellent offensively, but they face a shot-suppressing CAR team that my hunch is the field will not want to attack. However, this is the highest pace game on the board tonight, NSH1 fires off 74 shot attempts per 60, and Carolina tends to have issues when the shots do get through. I would not be fooled by Kochetkov’s 2.1 GAA. It comes with a pretty average .904 save percentage.
- It is certainly not a comfortable play, but it’s worth noting that a Kings power play stack would fit the common formula for winning large field GPPs so far this year: cheap, lower owned power play stacks that you can put higher upside plays around. The Kings power play has been terrible, but it has been better the last few weeks and FLA takes penalties at a top-10 rate. I I would be well over the field on 3 and 4-man Kings power play stacks If I were running an MME portfolio tonight. The upside and construction are there while the ownership is super low.
Synopsis
I think embracing the Vegas chalk is fine in smaller field events, but I’s probably go with VGK1 or play the full 6-man stack. A 5-man stack of the power play guys will be negatively leveraged. I think WPG1 is a very strong play for smaller fields. The scoring is concentrated and it’s not that expensive. I do not think you can play WPG1 with Hertl/Dorofeyev and have enough leverage.
In larger fields, 6-man Vegas stacks are fine. It’s not like these Hertl/Dorofeyev lines are setting the world on fire this year though. 0.98 expected goals per 60 in 123 minutes is an awful number. I do prefer WPG to them, but whatever floats your boat. There’s plenty of cheap lines to play that the folks with Vegas stacks won’t have. Therefore, WPG1 and DET PP look like strong options. I also like FLA2, all 3 NSH lines, and a Kings Power play stack (MME portfolios only.
NHL Defense
- I expect the chalk defensemen to be Noah Hanifin (4100) , Shayne Gostisbehere (5400), and Josh Morrissey (5700) at 17-20% owned each. I’m not super concerned by any of their ownership numbers.
- This is a fairly strong slate to spend down into the 3-4K range at defense. Seth Jones (4400), Gustav Forsling (3000), Aaron Ekblad (3400), Philip Broberg (3800), Colton Parayko (4100), Drew Doughty (3500), Brady Skjei (3000), Sean Walker (3300), Simon Edvinsson (3700), Ben Chiarot (3100), and Neal Pionk (3600) all look like strong options tonight. Go Team Non-Power Play!
- Your cheap PP defensemen are: Cam Fowler (3500), and Noah Hanifin (4100)
- Nick Blankenburg (2800) is going to play 18-20 minutes and some with most other defensemen. Nick Perbix (2800) probably sees 18 minutes playing next to Roman Josi. Dylan Samberg (3100) alao seems fine.
- Roman Josi is fine, but not my favorite in this spot. I’d rather have someone cheaper to offset the risk of lower shot volume. If I play Josi it will be something like O’Reilly/Forsberg/Josi.
Synopsis: I think you lock Hanifin in smaller fields. I really do like Morrissey tonight as well. There’s a glut of well-projected cheap guys to choose from. I would not bind yourself to cheap power play guys tonight.
NHL Goalies
- My guess is that Connor Hellebuyck (7900) is pretty extreme chalk tonight.
- I like Juuse Saros (7200) as the guy most likely to face a ton of shots. Daniil Tarasov (7800) and Jacob Markstrom (7400) also seem fine.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- The heavy chalk is going to be the Vegas power play guys tonight. CAR2 will be a popular pairing with them.
- WPG1, DET1, and DET2 probably get pushed down farther than they should tonight. I’m not buying the UTA/DET game as super chalky, but I could certainly be wrong.
- CAR is the best spot tonight, but the scoring is likely to be spread out. It’s the highest volume offensive spot tonight, so a larger stack is for sure viable. So is playing for the goalie ceiling with Juuse Saros though.
- FLA2 and NSH1 are the two lines that seem likely to come in the most underowned tonight.
- A Kings or Predators PP stack fits the lineup type that’s been winning this year – cheaper power plays with ceiling around them.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – I’d probably 6-man stack Vegas. The value is very strong. Your other two pieces need no ownership though. WPG and DET are also very viable in these formats.
In larger fields, WPG1 looks strong. However, I think there’s merit to playing FLA2, NSH1, and Kings Power Play stacks. If I’m picking anything from Vegas it’s from the Marner/Stone line. I doubt they do much tonight without the Puck movement of Mitch Marner and/or Noah Hanifin. Therefore, those are my two favorite plays from Vegas.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm