Welcome to Wednesday’s NHL DFS slate. We have what I expect to be a slate with some pretty heavy chalk today. Let’s get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 12 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
- The elite Dallas Power Play is facing an Anaheim team that commits lots of penalties and is pretty poor defensively tonight. Therefore, It’s pretty clear what the chalk is today. It will likely be DAL1 (Robertson/Hintz/Benn) and DAL2 (Johnston/Rantanen/Duchene) both at around 20% each. COL1 (MacKinnon/Lehkonen/Necas) and COL2 (Nelson/Nichushkin/Landeskog) likely come in around 15% each as well. Mackinnon/Nelson/Landeskog builds will be about as popular as COL1. I suspect that CAR2 (Stankoven/Blake/Ehlers) and NYI1 (Barzal/Drouin/Heineman) also come in about 12% each as secondary lines. The general goal of the field will likely be to fit in Dallas/Colorado combinations. Playing Colorado and picking on Anaheim are two things the public loves to do. I think an interesting way around the DAL ownership is to play a Hintz/Robertson or Johnston/Rantanen combination with both Heiskanen and Lindell.
- UTA1 (Schmaltz/Keller/Peterka) will also see around 15% ownership as the alternative to the chalk teams. However, I think this CAR/FLA game presents some opportunities for large field play. FLA2 (Bennett/Verhaege/Marchand) continue to just run over everybody and probably see 6-8% ownership on this slate. FLA1 (Lundell/Reinhart/Luostarainen) has only been slightly worse offensively. Carolina suppresses shots and Brandon Bussi has been very good, but FLA is an elite offensive team at home. It didn’t work out with NSH1 the other night, but I would not be afraid to go back to these guys. You can also add the super-active Mackie Samoskevich (2900) on top of a FLA Power Play stack. Bennett/Reinhart/Verhaege and/or Marchand with Samoskevich and Ekblad allows you to take advantage of Sam Reinhart (7000) being on both power play units.
- CAR1 (Aho/Svechnikov/Jarvis) aren’t in a good spot at even strength. FLA1 has been pretty lights out defensively. However, they do commit plenty of penalties – so there will be opportunities for these guys on the power play in what I expect to be a physical game. I don’t mind straight CAR1 with Gostisbehere or adding/swapping in Ehlers. While cheap one-offs don’t have a good large field track record this year – I do like former MVP Taylor Hall as a one-off or on top of a CAR1 stack. 2800 is too cheap for a guy that talented and CAR plays all 4 lines.
- There are a few cheap lines I like If you want to do something like jam in a Mackinnon or Makar one-off with a Dallas stack or just 5-man Dallas or Colorado power play stack. DAL3 (Hryckowian/Bourque/Back) has posted a solid 2.86 expected goals/60 on only 47 shot attempts/60 – so they are creating quality chances. I don’t hate them as a contrarian cheap play considering the expensive price of the Dallas pieces – although I prefer a Hryckowian/Bourque 2-man. Our model is also quite fond of VAN3 (O’Connor/Kane/Sherwood) and COL3 (Colton/Brindley/Olofsson) as cheap lines with upside.
- The line that I want to single out as one of my favorite plays on the entire slate is UTA3 (McBain/Carcone/But). While it’s only a 41 minute sample – this line is producing a preposterous 4.67 expected goals and 95 shot attempts per 60. Michael Carcone (3100) and Daniil But (2600) are two guys with strong scoring backround and extremely high shot rates in high-level non-NHL competition, so it stands to reason that this is a good offensive line. If you cut their current numbers by 1/3 they would still be elite numbers for a depth line. You’re only getting 13 minutes out of these guys – but They don’t need to do a ton. To steal from ETR – This is a true flag plant play for me tonight.
- The matchups tool is a huge fan of COL tonight. It also likes CAR.
- They are wildly overpriced – but WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi) is the clear ultra-sharp large field GPP play tonight. If the Jets are making this game competitive, it’s through these guys. After a hot start, COL1 and the Toews/Makar pairing have definitely regressed back to their 3-year averages of around 3 expected goals and 60 shot attempts against per 60. They’re not bad defensively, but they can easily be beaten. I would expect WPG to get up for this one after inexplicably getting shut out by the blues the other day.
Synopsis
In smaller fields – Dallas and Colorado are the clear chalk teams. UTA1 also seems like a solid alternative. I wouldn’t get too married to COL exposure here. Hellebuyck won’t deter the field, but he’s still the best goalie in the world.
In larger fields, I think the CAR/FLA game definitely has potential. I like the FLA2 stack a lot as an elite line at discounted ownership. I doubt they get too much steam with Colorado out there and Dallas/Utah in great spots. CAR1 is also viable here – but I’d consider a full power play stack. The only way the scoring really concentrates is if they rake on the Power Play.
NHL Defense
- Cale Makar (8000), Jackson LaCombe (5100), and Luke Hughes (4400) look like the chalk defensemen tonight. No issues with Makar and Hughes as chalk. Play them if you want
- Shayne Gostisbehere (5200) and Miro Heiskanen (5600) look like strong alternatives – or even a solid small field combination – at around 10% each. They should both see plenty of ice time on the man advantage tonight
- I don’t mind Jacob Trouba (4200), Esa Lindell (4300), and Seth Jones (4500) in the mid-tier. Devon Toews (3700), Neal Pionk (3500) and Aaron Ekblad (3300) also look good as guys who get a little power play time.
- I like Samberg and Pionk as a 2-man defense stack if you don’t want to play WPG1. They will be asked to block a lot of shots tonight and they shoot at a high rate as well.
- If you need cheap guys I suspect Dylan Samberg (3000) plays a lot against COL1 tonight. Brett Pesce (3000) returned the other day for NJ and immediately played 23 minutes lol. Nils Lundkvist (2500) is a cheap Dallas guy who will be low owned. Tony DeAngelo (2900), Alexander Nikishin (2900) and everybody’s favorite punt – Sam Malinski (2800) are all fine. I’d just rather save with cheap skaters than these bums when possible.
Synopsis: Makar and Hughes seem good, but LaCombe seems a bit aggressively owned. I prefer Gostisbehere and Heiskanen to him. I really do like a Gostisbehere/Heiskanen pairing tonight. If you want cheap correlation with Gostisbehere just play Taylor Hall. Those guys will get some ice time together.
NHL Goalies
- My guess is the chalk goalies are Ilya Sorokin (7900) and Thatcher Demko (7500). Sorokin has been undeniably fantastic and is a dark horse for the Vezina if the Islanders sneak into the playoffs somehow.
- Connor Hellebuyck is 7200 and still the best goalie on the planet facing chalk MacKinnon and Makar. Elite GPP play.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- How you want to handle Dallas and Colorado are your big decisions. It’s a small slate so I think a MacKinnon one-off is fine. There’s enough cheap skaters I like. I don’t mind Dallas either. I would go with the Heiskanen/Lindell combination or stack Bourque/Hryckowiak on top of the power play guys to make a large stack though.
- I do like FLA2, CAR1, and WPG1 for larger fields tonight. WPG1 costs a fortune, but they are the super low owned sharp play – especially with Hellebuyck. You might as well bet the Jets money line if you play that though lol.
- I really do like a Heiskanen/Gostisbehere combination in all fields tonight.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – I wouldn’t be afraid to utilize super cheap skaters tonight. I think DAL is a strong play and COL is kind of a weaker play as a stack. Heiskanen/Gostisbehere is a strong way to get different as well.
In larger fields, WPG1 is the super sharp play. I don’t hate just Hellebuyck/Samberg/Pionk if you don’t want to eat 22K for WPG1. FLA2 and a Carolina power play stack both look strong as well. I think the Carcone/But and Hryckowian/Bourque combinations are both strong ways to access an expensive one-off tonight. Hellebuyck is also strong leverage.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm