Welcome back to another day of NHL DFS. We have an interesting 10 game slate here. Let’s dive right in.
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 3 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
*When I refer to NHL ownership – those numbers will be reflected in the run I push through after this article
*I’m not going to go over what the tools say in here as much anymore, but it does guide my thinking. I encourage everyone to use them heavily.
*Landeskog, Kelly and MacKinnon are questionable. However, it’s just an illness so I assume they’ll play. I’m writing them up as such unless I hear otherwise.
- Any Discussion of this slate starts with how you want to handle Colorado. They’re facing a Vancouver team with major goaltending issues that can’t stay out of the penalty box. I expect Nathan MacKinnon (10000) will be the slate’s highest owned player at 22-25% in large field and over 30% in small field. This line will be exceptionally popular for such a big slate. probably 22-25% in small field and 15-17% in large field. I will have a group of lines around 10% each including VGK3 (Hertl/Dorofeyev/Saad), VGK2 (Howden/Stone/Marner), NYI2 (Barzal/Lee/Drouin), EDM2 (Draisaitl/Podkolzin/Mangiapane), NSH1 (O’Reilly/Stamkos/Evangelista), FLA1 (Marchand/Lundell/Samoskevich), and FLA3 (Bennett/Verhaege/Greer). The field probably uses one of these lines, Jams in Mackinnon, and fills in around it with cheap Power Play guys from a well-projected team like Nashville. They will also just play COL1 or MacKinnon/Nichushkin/Makar.
- My sense is that the field leans toward FLA3, VGK3, and NSH1 as the lines to jam in MacKinnon and COL. I don’t think any of these lines accrue monster ownership, but I may change my mind. If it’s anyone it will be FLA1 or FLA3. My ownership projections will clarify this.
- Our tools say that COL is in the best spot and COL1 has the highest goal share on the slate. They have VGK, FLA, and DET right behind them. VGK1 and VGK3 have the highest marketshares after COL1
- There are quite a few spots I like tonight and it starts with the EDM/MIN game. There is obviously serious frontline talent in this game, the pace should be pretty high, and both teams allow high danger chances. If we drill down to the last couple weeks – The Oilers lead the NHL in penalty minutes taken per 60. Considering their extremely shaky goaltending, middling penalty kill, and the MIN Power Play that has been excellent over the last few years – this creates some solid upside for MIN. MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Johansson) won’t be that low owned, but they’re in a solid spot. MIN1 (Hartman/Kaprizov/Zuccarello) is unlikely to have any ownership, but they get to shoot on a guy in an Oilers jersey and Kirill Kaprizov (8600) is really good. MIN getting out to a lead will likely result in EDM shuffling the lines around and putting McDavid/Draisaitl/Hyman together to catch up. They’re roughly the same price as COL1 with a fraction of the ownership. If they can draw a few penalties it’s pretty easy to see them blowing up chalky Wallstedt and the lousy Wild Penalty Kill.
- The Field likes Vegas and Detroit Power Plays as the pivots off COL1. BOS and CHI are good power play spots, but both have solid goaltenders. I do like DET2 (Copp/DeBrincat/Kane) and a Vegas power play stack without Eichel quite a bit,
- Both TOR2 (Tavares/Cowan/Nylander) and TB1 (Kucherov/Cirelli/Hagel) are solid pivots away from COL1 according to our projections. They should both come in at reasonable ownership and are strong plays. TOR2 will have no ownership and FLA does pick up a bunch of penalties from time to time.
- The other spot I want to mention tonight is the OTT/MTL game. The pace of this game is terrible and the even strength defenses are pretty good, but these goalies and penalty kills are very shaky. MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufiled/Bolduc), OTT3 (Pinto/Giroux/Amadio), and OTT2 (Tkachuk/Cozens/Zetterlund) all look like very affordable even strength plays. The power plays are where my interest lies though. Either one – or both – of these teams could easily melt down on the PK and this is a rivalry game that is a thing in Canada. These teams do not like each other much and it could get pretty physical. The prices are really reasonable and I think this is a strong spot to attack with some more contrarian 4/3/1 balanced builds that fade COL.
- If you want to play COL, I think – sigh – the Flames are the first place to look for a pairing at lower ownership. I know I’ve dragged the Flames repeatedly, but they’ve finally started to put together high danger chances over the last two weeks. They’re top-5 in that span. I don’t think CGY1 (Frost/Huberdeau/Coranato) or CGY2 (Kadri/Farabee/Sharangovich) carry any ownership. CGY3 (Backlund/Coleman/Zary) probably gets 3-4% and looks strong as well.
- BOS2 (Zacha/Arvidsson/Mittlestadt) and MTL2 (Kapanen/Slafkovsky/Demidov) look like two strong cheap lines with no ownership. Our projections like them and they make sense to pair with COL1. This is especially true of BOS2 – which is fully correlated on the PP against DET’s lousy PK.
- I also want to mention LAK1 (Byfield/Kempe/Fiala). These guys are fully correlated on the Power Play, unowned, and this WAS PK has been garbage all year. They are firmly in my MME pool.
Synopsis: In small fields, I think you can play COL if you want. I think you’re eating a lot of ownership by playing COL1/NSH or COL1/FLA though. I think OTT3, BOS2, and CGY1 are all reasonable alternatives. The best move is to play the whole COL1 line and not go down to Nichushkin though. Necas will end up like 12% owned to Nichushkin’s 15-18% in these formats. A double defense build with Makar/Toews is definitely in play as well. If you want somebody really cheap to play COL1 + Makar, I think TB3 is viable at 7600.
In larger fields, I like attacking the EDM/MIN and MTL/OTT games. I think there’s substantial upside and volatility in both. I particularly like MIN against this suddenly penalty-happy Oilers team. All 4 teams in those games look strong, but the MIN Power Play is probably my favorite. They could easily make Stuart Skinner look like Seymour Skinner with a couple early chances. Overall though – I suspect a balanced build will be more contrarian today with everyone trying to jam MacKinnon and Makar. That’s the way I will be leaning in a higher portion of lineups than the field.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- Nathan MacKinnon (10000) will be the most popular one-off by a lot. He’s probably 25% owned at a minimum in all formats and maybe as high as 35% in small field
- All the cheap Nashville and Florida guys will be popular as well. Easton Cowen (3200), Sam Bennett (4800), and Anders Lee (4100) will also be a popular choices.
- I don’t see this as a night to get too fancy, but if you need one-offs I definitely like Calgary. Just pick one of the cheap guys. Mikael Backlund (3500) and Blake Coleman (3400) both seem fine. Alex Laferriere (3800) and Brock Boeser (4100) are high shot rate guys at low ownership.
- I think any of the Minnesota guys look great at lower ownership. Kirill Kaprizov (8600), Matt Boldy (7600), and Joel Eriksson Ek (6100) all have access to an elite matchup at low ownership. Zack Hyman (6100) and Connor McDavid (9000) have no ownership on the other side.
- I like Nick Suzuki (6200) and Alex Ovechkin (6800) as well. Both guys play 100% of the Power Play minutes. On the cheaper end I like Matt Coranato (4900), Victor Arvidsson (4100), Claude Giroux (3300), and Juraj Slafkovsky (4000)
- Cheap PP guys: Mittlestadt (2700), Shabanov (2800), Bjorkstrand (3000), Kuzmenko (3000), Cowan (3200), Leonard (3500), Paul (3600). Frost, Bolduc, Sherwood, and Arvidsson are much better than those clowns.
- #TeamNon-PP: Hartman (4000), Laferriere (3800), Blake Coleman (3400), Mikael Backlund (3500), Haula (2800), Gourde (2700), Gallagher (2600), Zary (2500)
Synopsis: The field is playing one-off MacKinnon or a two-man with him. They’re using guys from NSH, FLA, and the first group mentioned above. I think CGY and MIN are great teams to draw one-offs from. There’s plenty of guys that aren’t on chalky lines I listed above.
NHL Defense
- Cale Makar (8500) will be a priority for the field and come in around 15-17%. Mackinnon/Makar two-mans will be popular. Darren Raddysh (4700), Zeev Buium (3400), Aaron Ekblad(3500), Gus Forsling (3300), and Artyom Levshunov (3100) will be some of the more popular pairings. All of them are probably around 10%. The Alternatives to Makar will be Evan Bouchard (6400), Jake Sanderson (6100) and Moritz Seider (6200) at around 8-10% owned.
- There’s not a ton of outstanding plays at defense tonight. A few of my favorites are Mackenzie Weegar (4900), Rasmus Andersson (5400), Darnell Nurse (4100), Matthias Ekholm (3900), Roman Josi (6500), and Jonas Brodin (3500) are a few of my favorites
- I assume people will want super cheap guys. Therefore, I’d say Niko Mikkola (2500), Yan Kuznetsov (2500), Sam Malinski (2800), Alex Carrier (2900) and Charle-Edouard D’Ostas (2600) are a few options
- #TeamNonPP: Rasmus Andersson (5400), Noah Dobson (5100), Mike Matheson (4200), Darnell Nurse (4100), Brandt Clarke (4000), Matthias Ekholm (3900), Devon Toews (3700), Brent Burns (3700)
Synopsis: In smaller fields – I think you play Makar and a cheap non-PP guy or two cheaper PP guys. In large fields you can just play somebody not on the PP that projects well to dump ownership. Devon Toews makes sense. So does Darnell Nurse, Brent Burns, Noah Dobson, and Brandt Clarke.
NHL Goalies
- The field will go cheap to jam COL1. Jesper Wallstedt (7400), Jeremy Swayman (7100), Logan Thompson (7500), and Spencer Knight (6900) are all cheap and have been excellent this year
- I like Andrei Vasilevsky (8100), Darcy Kuemper (7900), and Devin Cooley (7600) as guys who will see plenty of shot volume. Anyone that isn’t dirt cheap will be contrarian.
- Kevin Laniken (7000) is the large field Alpha play of the year.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- COL1 is the chalk – more Specifically MacKinnon/Makar. EDM2, NSH1 and FLA are the three ways people will jam them in.
- MIN, EDM, DET, TB, and both sides of the OTT/MTL game make sense as contrarian ways to go in large field GPPs. The Minnesota Power Play and TB1/PP are my top plays of the slate.
- Calgary is my favorite team to pull cheap lines from. Any of the top 3 lines look strong. I want to invest before the field realizes that they might be getting better.
- BOS2, MTL2, TB2, and OTT3 also make sense as lower owned options to pair with COL1.
- I think you can also go to Toronto 2 as a super low owned option in large fields
- Avoiding MacKinnon one-offs and MacKinnon/Makar two-mans is definitely a way to create some leverage here. It’s a huge slate and MacKinnon will be massively owned.
- The field may get too married to the expensive lines on this slate. I think playing two mid-priced lines is an inherently contrarian way to go. Keep it simple.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – COL1 is a tough fade. TB1 is a viable alternative at 4K cheaper though. I think the trap is spending down to Nichushkin and playing FLA or NSH with them. NSH is a pretty poor offense and FLA will end up the chalk pairing. I think you’re either leaning into all of the chalk and killing your first place equity or playing an overowned offense that isn’t very good. If I’m going to play a mid offense I’d rather do it at less ownership and play CGY1, CGY2, or BOS1. EDM1 is fine, but I’d play non-PP defensemen if you do. I don’t think COL1/FLA is viable in anything but the smallest fields like the $121. Even there it’s really borderline.
In large fields, I think you stack or fade COL unless you’re playing something really low owned. I think a CGY Power Play stack makes a really strong pairing with COL. The pivots away from COL are TB1, DET PP, MIN PP, or EDM PP. I prefer a more balanced build utilizing MTL, OTT, LAK1, MIN1/2 or maybe a chalkier Vegas though. The COL ownership is going to leave a lot of stuff underowned. Remember that the goal is to get to first place – not 52nd place. You will have to be creative to play COL and acquire enough leverage.,
In conclusion, I think COL is pretty strong chalk, but it’s really expensive and it’s going to be really owned. They need to score 4-5 goals to matter. If they don’t, you’re probably dead. There are other spots with strong ceiling I’m going to attack instead, but I don’t begrudge anyone for just eating a bunch of expensive chalk.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm