Welcome to another NHL DFS slate. We have a pretty chalky 5-gamer on tap tonight. Let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 2 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

 

NHL DFS Lines

 

• I think the chalk build tonight is pretty clear – it’s FLA2 (Bennett/Marchand/Verhaege) and TOR1 (Tavares/Knies/Domi). FLA2 is an elite line that’s in a phenomenal power play spot against a penalty-happy Montreal team with shaky goaltending. I have these guys at 22% owned and it makes sense. However, Bennett and Marchand will be significantly higher owned than Verhaege – who is down to about 14 minutes/night and has been replaced on the PP by Samoskevich. I expect the Bennett/Marchand/Reinhart and Bennett/Marchand/Samoskevich combinations to be just as owned – if not higher owned – than straight FLA2. I do not have a problem with any of these combinations and I think FLA is a great candidate for a 6-man stack tonight.
  
• The other chalky spot the field likely gravitates to is TOR1 (Tavares/Kneis/Domi). Matthews and Nylander are considered highly unlikely to play – which leaves everyone on TOR underpriced. However, I’m going to issue a few words of caution here: 1) no Max Domi line has been good at either end of the ice since he got to TOR 2) This is NHL DFS – not NBA DFS. It’s great that guys are underpriced for their roles, but usage does not automatically equate to goals. This team is clearly underpriced and extremely well-projected, but also over 20% owned. It’s also likely to be very bad. I’m more inclined to avoid this spot than FLA tbh.
• The third chalky spot tonight is the New York Islanders. I have both NYI1 (Horvat/Drouin/Heineman) and NYI2 (Barzal/Lee/Holmstrom) between 15-17%. It’s definitely a strong spot against a Chicago team that is really struggling without Connor Bedard. I’m more inclined to eat ownership here than with this short-handed Leafs team that was bad before they lost their two best players.
• This is definitely a strong spot for New Jersey against a Leafs team that is also missing its only two good defenders in Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo. The only reason they’ve stayed afloat is their goalies have just stood on their heads. That won’t last forever and it could very well end tonight. I definitely prefer NJ2 (Hughes/Bratt/Palat) over NJ1 (Hischier/Meier/Mercer) due to the lower ownership and presence of the team’s clear best player. I think they make a lot of sense as a smaller field or Single Entry pivot away from FLA2. A 6-man stack is also firmly in play. The only caveat to this situation is that the Leafs just aren’t taking penalties. I’d be more inclined to 6-man stack and roll in some guys from NJ3 (Glass/Gritsyuk/Brown) than just straight power play stack – although I do think Noesen instead of Palat is totally fine.
• There are two contrarian teams that interest me tonight – Montreal and Philadelphia. FLA has been taking a ton of penalties all year – so the opportunity for MTL to put up numbers is there. However, MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Texier) has a terrible matchup against an elite defensive line in FLA1. I think I prefer MTL2 (Kapanen/Demidov/Slafkovsky) at 2-3% as opposed to the 10-12% MTL1 likely gets. You still get Demidov and Slafkovsky on the power play – and you can definitely add Suzuki and Hutson to make it a 4-man stack with solid even strength and power play equity. I don’t mind Caufield – but he is pricey at 7600.
• Philadelphia is in a low-key decent spot according to our Matchups tool. Line Marketshares like PHI1 (Dvorak/Konecny/Zegras) quite a bit, and I agree. This line has been very good – posting 3.63 expected goals per 60. Demko is an excellent goalie, but he does look pretty chalky. I think PHI1 is a really sharp pivot away from TOR1 – and maybe my favorite play of the night along with MTL2.
• So the PIT/CAR game is something that needs discussing. We have plenty of value on this slate – which will lead people to pay up for PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Rakell). I don’t have a problem if you want to do this – Andersen has been an abject disaster in net this year. There’s also a ton of cheap lines I like tonight. TOR2 (Roy/Robertson/Cowan) will be the chalky pairing, but I like NJ3 (Glass/Gritsyuk/Brown) on the other side quite a bit. They have been totally serviceable at 2.64 xGA per 60. CAR2 (Kotkaniemi/Ehlers/Blake) and PHI3 (Cates/Brink/Michkov) also look like strong plays. If you want to go off the board – I think a Hall/Robinson/Miller 3-man is pretty interesting. That leads me to the CAR side. They look great in our matchups tool – but we all know the story here. The scoring is really spread out. However, Stu Skinner is eminently attackable, the PIT defense sucks, and the prices are all reasonable. I definitely like a 5 or 6-man Carolina stack tonight (preferably a 6-man). CAR1 (Aho/Svechnikov/Stankoven) obviously leads the way, but I definitely like two-mans of Ehlers/Blake and Hall/Robinson as mentioned above. If you want to do a 4-man – I think Ehlers/Blake/Walker/Nikishin is firmly in play. All 4 guys project really well industry-wide and the combination will be unpopular.

In smaller fields – I think pivoting off TOR is a sharp thing to do. This team is live to completely suck. MTL2 (Kapanen/Demidov/Slafkovsky), PHI1 (Dvorak/Zegras/Konecny), and an Ehlers/Blake/Walker/Nikishin 4-man would be my preferred choices. I think FLA2 is a strong play, but if you want to pivot to NJ2 or a Horvat/Drouin/Barzal combo I don’t think that’s crazy either.

In larger fields, I would either 6-man stack or fade TOR. The value is extreme, so playing it is certainly viable. The NJ goaltending has also been pretty bad. I just prefer the NJ side of that game. My favorite spot to attack is probably Carolina though. I think a 5 or 6-man stack makes a lot of sense there due to the pace and poor defense/goaltending of PIT. A larger NJ stack with Glass/Gritsyuk or something also makes sense to me. If you want to stick to 4/3/1, PHI1 looks like the ticket to me. PIT1 is also fine, but the structure of the slate and how bad Andersen has been just makes me doubt the ownership stays that low.

 

NHL Defense

 

• I expect Luke Hughes (4200) and Seth Jones (4600) to be the chalkiest defensemen on the slate at around 20% each. Morgan Reilly (4800) looks to be 15-17% and a pile of guys including Alexander Nikishin (3000) and Dougie Hamilton (4500) look around 12% owned.
• my favorite play at defense is – of course – the Nikishin/Walker pairing. I think it’s a great way to be different with two well-projected guys.
• Matthew Schaefer (5600) and Noah Dobson (5400) are intriguing targets tonight at around 10% each. I don’t mind Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3500) as a lower owned Toronto piece either.

Synopsis: There’s not much to say here. I think the chalk guys are fine, but I do like Nikishin, Schaefer, and Dobson quite a bit. I also like Hamilton over Hughes. It’s just not a Power Play spot for NJ. I would not be bound to Power Play defensemen only on this slate. Those guys are fine for smaller fields, but spread out in larger ones.

 

 

NHL Goalies

 

• I see Thatcher Demko (7500) as the chalk tonight at 18%. Dan Vladar (7900) is behind him at 15%. The name brand and matchup will draw people in over shaky guys like Woll, Andersen, Tarasov, and Markstrom/Allen.
• Markstrom/Allen (7600) make sense if you’re not playing TOR, but they may also just struggle to generate offense. I wouldn’t be bound to an either/or there. I don’t mind Andersen since the field might be more iffy on him. He’s been bad this year, but has a long track record of being good.

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

 

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• FLA2/TOR1 with one of Reilly or Jones is the clear chalk to me.
• I think FLA2 is stronger chalk than this shaky TOR team.
• I think there are solid smaller field pivots available in NJ2 (Hughes/Bratt/Palat) and any of MTL2 (Kapanen/Demidov/Slafkovsky), CAR2 (Kotkaniemi/Ehlers/Blake), or PHI1 (Dvorak/Zegras/Konecny).
• PIT1 is totally fine. Their marketshare is bound to be high and there are definitely cheap lines to play in TOR2, NJ3, or PHI3. MTL1 is fine as well, but it’s a dreadful spot. I prefer a MTL PP stack.
• I think my favorite team to target here is CAR. The scoring is very spread out. However, there are two strong contrarian combinations in Ehlers/Blake/Walker/Nikishin and Hall/Robinson. The Hurricanes pricing and matchup are such that I see a 6-man stack as firmly in play – and one of the stronger ways to go.
• You can go to chalky Islanders if you want – but I prefer the full 5 or 6-man stack if doing so.
• I don’t have any strong leans at defense besides the two guys from CAR. 
• I think it’s a 5 or 6-man stack night for me in larger fields. Aiming to capture ceiling with the cheaper teams and more expensive one-offs like J. Hughes, Reinhart, Suzuki, etc makes a ton of sense here.
• I think this is a sneaky good spot for PHI. I don’t hate any of their 3 top lines and we saw this game blow up a week ago.

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – you can pivot off either FLA2 or TOR1. I prefer to pivot off TOR1 to PHI1 or CAR2, but you can get off FLA1 to a New Jersey combination as well.

In larger fields, I think it’s a night for larger stacks. Doing so with FLA or TOR will be popular, so I prefer going to NYI, MTL or CAR in these types of stacks. If you want to stick to 4-mans, I think PHI is a spot to invest in. Demko is very good, but their prices are fair and PHI1 in particular has been excellent.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm