Welcome back to another week of NHL DFS. We have a pretty straight-forward 5-gamer, so let’s get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 5 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
*Some sources have the Kucherov line as TB1 and others have it as TB2. We have the latter so I am using that for the purposes of the article.
- So the chalk primary lines are pretty clear today – they are TB2 (Cirelli/Hagel/Kucherov), DET1 (Larkin/Raymond/Finnie), DET2 (Copp/DeBrincat/Kane), and MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Johansson). I don’t have any one of them as overwhelming chalk. They all look around 18-22% owned to me. MIN1 (Yurov/Kaprizov/Zuccarello) projects as pretty low owned industry-wide, but that’s a bit misleading. MIN and DET PP stacks will be exceedingly popular. The pieces like Danila Yurov, Andrew Copp, Marcus Johansson, and Emmett Finnie will carry lower ownership than their linemates due to being off the power play. All of these teams are in excellent spots today. MIN and DET have elite power plays facing bad defensive teams with big-time issues on the PK. SEA’s PK is the worst in hockey by a lot, MIN continues to draw plenty of penalties, and their PP continues to be excellent. Similar things can be said about DET. The Leafs are just a generally awful defensive team and this particular version of TB1 has been excellent. I don’t mind any of these spots, but If I’m picking one it is definitely Detroit. Our tools grade that as the top spot on the board, the pace should be good, and losing Elias Petterson will really hurt an already shaky VAN defense.
- The Chalk secondary stack here is likely to be from Calgary. CGY1 (Frost/Coranato/Huberdeau), CGY2 (Kadri/Farabee/Sharangovich), and CGY3 (Backlund/Coleman/Zary) will all carry high single digit to low double digit ownership – and they will be the chalk pairings with DET/MIN/TB stacks. CGY1 and CGY2 look about 12% owned each while CGY3 looks about 8% owned. BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Greenway) has solid defensive numbers over the last year+ – and they lack PP equity – so that likely drives down the ownership on CGY3. BUF3 (McLeod/Zucker/Quinn) and VAN1 (Kampf/Garland/Boeser) likely garner 7-8% ownership each as secondary options. I think VAN3 (Raty/Kane/Sherwood) is a strong alternative as a secondary stack – and line marketshares agrees. Kane and Sherwood are talented offensive players and Detroit’s depth lines simply are not good defensively.
- Our Model definitely likes TOR2 (Tavares/Nylander/Cowan) more than the Industry does. It’s not a high-volume Power Play spot, but they are fully correlated and haven’t been particularly good this year. They are facing Jonas Johansson though and he is very bad. They seem like a strong play in the $5 or $20 at 6-7% ownership. TOR1 (Matthews/Kneis/Domi) is also fine, but they seem efficiently owned at 15%. They’re fine, but not a standout for me.
- Our matchups tool likes DET the best by a lot. TB, LAK, CGY, and BUF all grade out ok as well.
- Our projections are particularly high on TOR2, BUF1, MIN1, and both DET lines from a raw points perspective. All 3 top Calgary lines and BUF1 stand out from a value standpoint.
- To me – the clear sharp play on this slate is BUF1 and our projections agree. You only get one guy on the power play (Thompson), but they look like an absolute bargain at their nearly 32 point projection for 15.3K. It’s not an ideal even strength matchup against a solid shutdown line in CGY3, but the BUF Power Play has been absolutely lethal with Josh Norris centering it. They rank only slightly below chalk MIN and DET as a Power Play, and this Calgary team takes plenty of penalties. I really like any Power Play combination from the Sabres, BUF1, or BUF2 (Norris/Benson/Doan) at lower ownership on this slate.
- I also think a power play stack from either VAN or CGY with some high-upside skaters around them is an extremely strong play. Neither the DET or BUF PK are very good, and the players on these teams all have strong projections industry-wide. They all have substantial ownership individually, but I don’t expect that we see either team as a primary 5-man stack at a very high rate despite their projections. I don’t really have a preference as to individual players, but I think Nazem Kadri (6100) and Quinn Hughes (6700) are integral part of each team’s chances here.
- I think this game has an awful pace and the team is a big bag of ass – but the Kraken are in play as leverage against chalky Gustavsson. SEA1 (Beniers/McCann/Eberle) or a Marchment/Tolvanen/Montour stack make sense in this regard. I do prefer the latter though as I really don’t love playing a shitty Kraken line like SEA1 at near 10% ownership.
Synopsis: In small fields, the clear chalk is MIN, DET, or the Kucherov line with one of the Calgary lines. I think a strong alternative is a 5-man Calgary stack. It’s going to project really well and you can still get some equity by playing one of the high ceiling guys from more popular stacks. Those stacks look great in the small field single entries or the $20.
In larger fields, Buffalo is the clear standout. Calgary power play stacks aren’t far behind though. I also don’t mind the full 5-man stacks from MIN or DET while getting creative with some non-PP guys like Linus Karlsson, Evander Kane, Keifer Sherwood, or Jack Quinn around them.
NHL Defense
- The clear chalk here is Quinn Hughes (6700) at 28-30% owned. Moritz Seider (6000) is 15%. Brock Faber (4600), Rasmus Andersson (5200), Darren Raddysh (4400), and Vince Dunn (4500) are all 10-12% owned.
- my favorite team on the slate is Buffalo, so it’s non surprise that 10% owned Rasmus Dahlin (6600) is one of the top plays on my board. He’s a great pivot away from Hughes and Seider.
- I like a few non-PP guys here at lower ownership as well. Brandon Montour (4700) looks really strong at around 10%. I’d rather play him than Faber, Raddysh, or Dunn. Mackenzie Weegar (4900), Sean Durzi (3700), Filip Hronek (3700), Simon Edvinsson (3500), Jonas Brodin (3400), Jared Spurgeon (3200), Jake McCabe (3300), Bowen Byram (3000), and Yan Kuznetsov (2700) are all strong plays that project as decent values industry-wide
- The cheapest PP guys are all highlighted above. You can add Morgan Reilly (4800) to that pile if you want.
Synopsis: In smaller fields – I think you play Hughes or Seider. However, I think Edvinsson or Hronek are viable as pivots or paired with their chalkier partners. In larger fields I really like Rasmus Dahlin, MacKenzie Weegar, and Brandon Montour as strong plays. Any of the cheap guys I listed are fine as well.
NHL Goalies
- Filip Gustavsson (8100) and Ukka-Pekka Luukonnen (7200) are the chalk goalies at 18-20% each.
- Karel Vejmelka (8000) seems fine. Kevin Laniken (7500) and Philip Grubauer (7300) will both likely be under seige tonight, so they have the ceiling to make the difference.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- The clear chalk here either the Kucherov line, DET, or MIN with a Calgary secondary stack, either Quinn Hughes or Moritz Seider, and one of Gustavsson or Luukonnen in net.
- BUF looks like the strongest contrarian team to me. BUF1 will be underowned due to lack of power play equity and Calgary’s even strength reputation. BUF2 doesn’t seem like it has much ownership. A BUF Power Play stack seems like a very strong play in the $5 tonight. Our projections like it as well.
- Calgary will be popular, but not so much as a 5-man stack. I think attacking chalky Luukonnen with 5 flames and some expensive skaters around them is a strong way to have a well-projected lineup. The same can be said for a VAN Power Play stack.
- Our projections like TOR2. There’s definitely a discount to be had here.
- BUF/CGY game stacks are also firmly in play. That total has been rising all afternoon and the over 6.5 is my bet of the day.
- I don’t mind the expensive 5-man DET or MIN stacks, but I think you fade the flames and both chalk goalies around them.
- Quinn and Mo Seider are fine as chalk, but Dahlin looks outstanding at around 10%. The high ownership on guys like Faber, Dunn, and Raddysh seems much more shaky. Montour, Weegar, or any of the cheaper non-PP guys I mentioned make great plays in the $5 or $20.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – you’ve got some choices. You can eat chalk on any of the 3 expensive teams, but I think a 5-man Flames stack is a very strong play. You can probably get a very similar projection to the chalk by doing that and just jamming in some expensive guys around it.
In large fields, I think BUF is the clear sharp play here. BUF1, BUF2, or a BUF PP stack are all in play. A 5-man Calgary or Vancouver stack also look like strong, well-projected plays.
In conclusion, There’s no one super chalk line here. It’s kind of flat. I still think there’s advantages to be had by playing BUF or TOR2 though. You can play well-projected stuff at lower ownership tonight. There’s no need to eat chalk that projects worse just to eat chalk.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm