Welcome to a big 10 game slate of NHL DFS. We have some clear chalk, but a lot to get into – so let’s get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*There will be multiple updates in discord
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- The chalk looks very clear tonight in NHL – It will be CHI1 (Bedard/Bertuzzi/Nazar) at 20% ownership and UTA1 (Schmaltz/Keller/Crouse) at 15%. CHI1 is fully correlated on the power play in a strong matchup against SJ at only 16K. It’s very hard to argue with the projections or price, but it’s worth pointing out that CHI is one of the most penalty-prone teams in the league. There will be plenty of volatility in that game. I do not have any holes to poke in Utah’s spot against VAN. UTA1 has been pretty solid – and VAN has been absolutely awful this year. UTA3 (McBain/Guenther/Carcone) come in at 11% owned and continue to post fantastic underlying numbers. 95 shot attempts and 4.6 expected goals per 60 are obnoxious numbers – even in a 70 minute sample. They probably deserve the ownership. We have CHI1 projected much better than UTA1 – and I understand why. Utah plays a much slower game and tends to dominate puck possession, but doesn’t always press the issue wire-to-wire once they have a lead. I prefer CHI1 if I’m picking.
- I have all of UTA3, CGY1 (Backlund/Sharangovich/Coranato), and FLA1 (Rodrigues/Reinhart/Luostarainen) coming in at 10-11% each – priced at between 13-13.5K. Considering we have a free Power Play defensemen on the slate, that likely leads to plenty of ownership for COL1 (MacKinnon/Lehkonen/Nichushkin). I have them at 11% – but I will probably be moving them up in the next update. They’re facing a DET team at home that they just shut out 5-0. COL1 should be an elite offensive line again after shuffling Olofsson down the lineup, but I would encourage folks not to put too much stock into that last matchup between these teams. DET – especially DET1 and Mo Seider – have been very good defensively all year. They’re not as good as OTT3 – but one of the better defensive combinations around. It’s a totally fine spot for them – but it’s not an elite one – and I could see them (especially MacKinnon) being excessively owned in small fields. I can clearly envision the thought process that will lead folks to CHI1/Carcone/Guenther/MacKinnon builds there.
- Florida and Nashville both look to be in strong spots tonight. I have both NSH1 (O’Reilly/Forsberg/Stamkos) and FLA2 (Bennett/Tkachuk/Verhaege) at 8-9% owned with solid projections in our model. As anybody who has read my work knows – I’m always on board with NSH1 and tonight is no exception against St. Louis. I wish it were Evangelista rather than Stamkos – as the puck movement is better – but I still like them a fair amount. I understand the projections for FLA2 – but I do want to point out that the minutes on Matt Tkachuk and Carter Verhaege are all over the place. These guys likely play 15-16 minutes apiece without significant power play time – so be aware that there is a pretty low floor here with FLA2. It’s certainly viable to play them though. This is truly a must-win game for Florida against a BUF team ahead of them in the playoff chase. If they’re going to bump the minutes on Tkachuk and Verhaege – this is the time.
- I definitely do not mind the BUF side here either. It’s definitely a tough even strength matchup for BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Benson) against the Reinhart/Rodrigues line, but you can definitely play this elite BUF Power Play against the penalty-happy panthers with an extremely shaky Sergei Bobrovsky in net. There’s not going to be much ownership here. This is definitely a spot to consider in larger fields tonight.
- You can definitely go to SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Toffoli) tonight as leverage against the Chicago chalk. That game could easily go off the rails. CHI’s penalty kill is very good – but the Sharks are FINALLY making John Klingberg a healthy scratch tonight. The CHI PK is very good – but the Sharks power play goes from poor to excellent without Klingberg. There’s definitely a world where they bang a couple home on the power play and the Bedard line continues to not be able to stop a nosebleed like they have all year. SJ1 looks like another solid large field play.
- The other interesting spot with lower ownership tonight is the MTL/MIN game. Montreal continues to play like a bunch of lumberjacks and just hack away at their opponents (4th in time shorthanded per game). Enter the MIN Power Play – which has really started to roll with the addition of Quinn Hughes – and their league-leading power play over the last two weeks. They are averaging roughly one expected goal per game – 12% better than anyone else in the league. The MTL PK has been better lately, but they are facing a buzzsaw here. I don’t mind going to MIN1 (Hartman/Kaprizov/Zuccarello) or MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Johansson) here either at sub-5% each. You can also go to the MTL side here. I absolutely do not mind going to a Suzuki/Caufield 2-man or some kind of MTL PP combination against this awful Minnesota Penalty Kill at similarly low ownership. This seems like an overlooked boom/bust spot to me.
- If you want to fit COL1 or MIN Power Play – there are definitely a few value lines I like tonight. All of CHI3 (Donato/Mikheyev/Dickinson), CGY3 (Frost/Huberdeau/Gridin), STL1 (Dvorsky/Schenn/Snuggerud), STL2 (Buchnevich/Kyrou/Sundqvist), and NSH2 (Haula/Bunting/Evangelista) look like reasonable cheap lines to play at sub-5% ownership. STL2 projects better, but I expect them to see the tougher matchup with NSH1 and STL1 has outplayed them the last week or so. You get two guys on the top power play for the Flames on CGY3 (whatever that’s worth) so they are certainly viable. Everybody on Calgary is on the trade block though – so be on the lookout for late line changes.
- Everything CGY projects really well. I just do not trust them to keep their lines together. The same goes for VAN. The field will probably feel this way too though – so larger CGY or VAN stacks are definitely in play.
In smaller fields – I probably lean toward CHI1 despite the ownership. They are fully correlated in a strong spot. I prefer them over UTA tonight. If you want to go to COL1 – that’s fine. I just see them getting steamed up hard in small fields to the point where they end up the chalk. I just don’t want to be playing these 10K skaters as chalk on big slates. There’s so many plays for 2-3K cheaper with similar ceilings from a point/$ standpoint.
In larger fields, it’s pretty wide open. So many of the CHI lineups are going to have Rinzel that I think they are still eminently playable. The only team whose ownership I worry about a bit is COL. That’s mostly because I think this is such a good spot for MIN at about 1/3 the ownership. I definitely like the BUF and MTL Power Plays in large field as well. There just won’t be much ownership at all. Play chalky COL or UTA tonight if you want, but I think there are other spots that are almost as good.
NHL Defense
- Sam Rinzel is running the Chicago Power Play tonight at only 2600. I have him at 29% ownership right now and I’d expect him to be 40% or more in small field. This is somewhat of a “Don’t be Stupid” play, however I think it’s worth noting that he ran the CHI Power Play earlier in the year and was completely worthless. He’s also going to be in a massive percentage of Chicago stacks tonight. I do not mind doing something like pivoting to Alex Vlasic (2700) or Louis Crevier (3200) in order to offload a bunch of ownership.
- The other guys with 15-18% ownership look like Roman Josi (6800), Jake Chycrun (6500), and Mikhail Sergachev (5600). I have Cale Makar (8300) at 11%.
- My favorite plays on the high end tonight are Quinn Hughes (7800) and Rasmus Dahlin (6600) at around 5% each. Lane Hutson (5900) is also fine, but he’s definitely a better play on FanDuel where the assists are worth more.
- Brady Skjei (3200) is one of my favorite cheap plays on the board tonight. He’s not on the Power Play, but he’s a solid puck mover and will play a pile of minutes next to chalky Roman Josi. He makes a ton of theoretical sense to play instead of Rinzel. You could also play him with Josi in a NSH1 stack. Forsberg/O’Reilly/Josi/Skjei seems totally fine to me.
- With Klingberg Scratched I assume it will be Dmitry Orlov (3300) running the San Jose Power Play tonight. I definitely like him as well. Uvis Balinskas (3200) is also fine as a cheap PP guy.
- John Carlson (5000), Filip Hronek (3600), Mike Matheson (3900), Tony DeAngelo (4100), and Jared Spurgeon (3300) are a few of my favorites in the mid-tier tonight.
Synopsis: Rinzel is one of the bigger decision points on the slate tonight. He’s a great play, but I wouldn’t call him a lock based on the number of options for just a few hundred more and how awful he was on the power play earlier this year. I’m fine with the ownership on most of these guys.
NHL Goalies
- I expect Linus Ullmark (7600) and Karel Vejmelka (8400) to be the highest owned – but only around 15% it looks pretty spread out.
- I guess Juuse Saros (8000), Dustin Wolf (7600), or Spencer Knight (7500) seem fine.
- The big balls play of the night is definitely Askarov (7900) or whomever goes for SJ
- Confirmed: Rittich (NYI), Stevenson (WSH), Bobrovsky (FLA), Ullmark (OTT), Silovs (PIT), Dobes (MTL), Gustavsson (MIN), Hofer (STL), Oettinger (DAL), Knight (CHI), Gibson (DET), Blackwood (COL), Laniken (VAN), Wolf (CGY)
- Unconfirmed: Lyon (BUF), Saros (NSH), Hellebuyck (WPG), Askarov (SJ), Vejmelka (UTA), Woll (TOR)
Stacks and Theory
- CHI1/UTA1 or COL1 with a 13K line are the clear chalk builds tonight. I do not mind Chicago at all here, but I think simply fading Rinzel is a sharp thing to do. He’s not on first pairing – so he will see very limited time with CHI1 at even strength. You can definitely pivot to CHI3 or a Donato/Mikheyev 2-man as well. Those guys have been good and project well industry-wide.
- The CHI PP and CGY PP both project really well and justify larger 5 or 6-man stacks. Those types of builds with cheap teams have solid reputation for being competitive this year.
- I definitely like the MIN and BUF Power Plays tonight at lower ownership. Solid units in strong spots.
- UTA seems fine, but I definitely question their ceiling. They’ll need the Power Play in order to truly smash here.
- Going to SJ1/PP on the other side of CHI makes a ton of sense to me here
- You can certainly go to VAN on the other side of UTA and chalky Vejmelka – but I do not trust them to keep the lines together.
- Rinzel is an elite value, but keep in mind that he was a total disaster running the CHI PP earlier this year. He’s not running PP1 because they believe in him – it’s because they have no other options.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – I think CHI1 is totally fine. COL1 and SJ1 are also probably in the pool. I wouldn’t dismiss MIN though. This is a very strong spot for them at home – and MTL should be able to push them. I really like the Suzuki/Caufield 2-man for small fields as well. I think that’s a really strong pairing with CHI1
In larger fields – the BUF, SJ, and MIN Power Plays look really strong at low ownership. There isn’t much that I’m totally opposed to, but I think fading Rinzel is a sharp thing to do. There’s a ton of cheap defensemen in good spots that project well. One of them is probably going to do well and Rinzel could easily just stand in the corner like he did earlier this year.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm