Welcome to a 10 game slate of NHL DFS. We have some massive chalk tonight to decide on – so let’s get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*There will be multiple updates in discord
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- The chalk is very clear tonight. It’s COL1 (MacKinnon/Lehkonen/Nichushkin) at home against the undisciplined, penalty-prone Sharks. I have them at 30% owned right now in large field – and that number will be substantially higher in small fields like the $333. Nathan MacKinnon probably gets to 45% owned in smaller contests. I will have an article going over it next week – and I talk about it ad nauseum in discord – but a 10K skater at this level of ownership just isn’t a +EV play. It’s undeniably a great spot, there’s no NHL Hockey-based argument against it – and If you want to play this spot in small fields that’s fine I guess. There are a ton of other options on this slate though. It’s loaded with high-upside and well-projected plays
- There is a clear chalk pairing with COL1 as well – and that is FLA1 (Rodrigues/Reinhart/Luostarinen) at 15%. They are also in a strong spot against the always penalty-happy Boston Bruins. I have LA3 (Byfield/Fiala/Kuzmenko) and CGY1 (Backlund/Coranato/Sharangovich) at 10% each as alternatives the field will like. I really don’t have a problem with any of these.
- Ok so let’s talk about this BOS/FLA game. If you are a fan of physical, old-school Hockey (like I am) this is a game to sit down and watch – because it should be a rough one with plenty of fights and penalties. Fully PP-Correlated FLA2 (Bennett/Tkachuk/Verhaege) could see extended action here with plenty of power play opportunities. We finally saw Matt Tkachuk (6600) get his minutes up into the 20s last time out – so I feel much more comfortable playing FLA2 tonight. I would probably prefer to just roll in Sam Reinhart (7000) and Uvis Balinskas (3200) to make it a power play stack though – since the man advantage is what will drive up the minutes on Verhaege and Tkachuk. The Boston side is also interesting. Florida commits plenty of penalties and the injuries to Elias Lindholm and Pavel Zacha has moved Fraser Minten (3500) and Victor Arvidsson (4300) up to PP1. That makes some form of BOS Power Play combination pretty cheap tonight. I also do not mind just playing BOS2 (Minten/Arvidsson/Mittlestadt) or Geekie/Pastrnak/McAvoy should you so desire. The ownership on COL is causing a lot of spots with upside to go underowned and – outside of FLA1 – this is one of them. It’s one of the better spots on the board – as it’s also a must-win game for both teams. We will have to keep an eye on lines for FLA though. They are rumoured to be in the hunt for Artemi Panarin – and there’s a strong chance he gets dealt before the end of the day.
- When we talk about alternatives to COL – VGK are definitely a part of the conversation. They are in a great power play spot against this abysmal Vancouver team – and you can get them at lower ownership. You do not even need to pay the $9400 tag for Jack Eichel either – as Mark Stone is now on VGK2 (Marner/Stone/Dorofeyev). This is one of my favorite lines of the night for obvious reasons. I think it’s totally reasonable to roll in PP Net Front Tomas Hertl (5900) with them or instead of Mark Stone. You can certainly play VGK1 (Eichel/Barbashev/Holtz), but the other two guys are so cheap that it’s hard to see Eichel getting there without at least one of Barbashev, Holtz, or Shea Theodore. This is an elite spot – and there’s not a ton to talk about. These guys are viable in all field sizes.
- The NSH/MIN game is also worth discussing. I despise that they moved Filip Forsberg (7500) down to the second line, but I do really like NSH1 (O’Reilly/Stamkos/Evangelista) tonight at a very affordable price of 15.5K. MIN is a solid defensive team with excellent goaltending, but that’s a strong price for a line that is fully correlated on the power play, has played extremely well together (3.69 xGoals/60) against this atrocious penalty kill. NSH2 (Haula/Marchesseault/Forsberg) comes in at a similar price and also seems fine. The Minnesota side is also interesting tonight. There’s no way around it – Juuse Saros is in a terrible slump and this is just not the team you want to face in that context. MIN1 (Hartman/Kaprizov/Zuccarello) are expensive – but in the same pile as FLA2 as an alternative to COL tonight. They get to play almost all of their minutes with the electric Hughes/Faber defensive pairing and should be able to generate offense against this slower version of NSH1. This is definitely an interesting spot for MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Johansson) at a cheaper 16.7K price tag as well. These Haula/Marchesseault combinations have been abysmal defensively with a xGoals against average of well over 3. The Nashville Penalty Kill has been pretty good, but you can certainly go to the Minnesota Power Play – as they have been an absolute Buzzsaw averaging a full goal per game in their last 10. A cheap McCarron/Bunting 2-man is also viable from the Nashville side. This game should be played at the second highest pace of the night and has a chance for some fireworks from both sides
- The final game I will discuss is the battle of Alberta – Edmonton at Calgary. The Flames and backup goalie Devin Cooley will be no match for EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins) tonight. I won’t be going here due to the price, but the Oilers certainly have just as much upside as COL – and will not be owned at all. The Calgary side is also pretty interesting. There’s going to be ownership on both CGY1 and CGY2 (Kadri/Farabee/Zary), but probably very little on CGY3 (Frost/Huberdeau/Gridin). They look like a solid play at sub-10K. I also think a 5 or 6-man Flames stack is definitely viable tonight. The Edmonton goaltending could always just completely collapse and their penalty kill is dreadful. Larger stacks of cheaper teams also have strong win rates on larger slates this year – so it’s worth considering. However, this could also end up a low-event stinkbomb. That’s the way it goes with Oilers games
- WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Iafallo) project pretty well and with about 10% ownership. You can certainly go here against the penalty-happy Canadiens and their shaky goaltending. WPG2 (Perfitti/Vilardi/Lowry) also seem ok at markedly lower ownership. I’d probably just go with Scheifele/Connor/Morrissey/Vilardi or Perfitti here. I definitely think you can go to the MTL side here as well. MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Dach) just continue to chug along and be excellent night in and night out. I don’t mind them, a MTL Power Play stack of Suzuki/Caufield/Hutson/Slafkovsky or Demidov, or even a dirt cheap 3-man of Danault/Gallagher/Matheson. This spot falls below the other for me – but it’s fine.
- The Kings project really well against Seattle tonight. LA1 (Larferriere/Perry/Kempe) and LA3 (Byfield/Kuzmenko/Fiala) will both carry 8-10% ownership. I get it, but I’ll probably pass. Our projections like SEA1 (Beniers/Eberle/McCann) here and I agree. You can also go to SEA3 (Wright/Kakko/Schwartz) for cheap. They are interesting at zero ownership with fully power play correlation in a game with big playoff implications.
- You can go to DAL1 (Johnston/Rantanen/Hryckowian) or DAL2 (Hintz/Robertson/Bourque). They’re facing the Blues. Sure. Whatever. Throw them on the pile.
- Our tools like this spot for Columbus – and Spencer Knight looks like chalk tonight – so you can definitely go to them if you want. I would probably go to CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Marchment) before anyone else, but CBJ3 (Coyle/Olivier/Sillinger) or the power play seems ok too. I outlined my issues with how Rick Bowness is running this team and that came to fruition last night. Adam Fantilli was the only skater to reach 17 minutes last night. CHI1 (Bedard/Bertuzzi/Nazar) have the ceiling, power play correlation, and low ownership. Throw them in the MIN/FLA/NSH/WPG/MTL pile. My favorite line in this game is actually CHI3 (Donato/Dickinson/Mikheyev) at 8.9. They’ve played really well and see about 16 minutes of run a night. They are my favorite cheap line of the night. Our projections do love the Chicago side here.
- I assume Sims are going to love SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Sherwood) – and our projections do as well. It’s certainly viable to go here. I’ve outlined my concerns about the COL goaltending – and San Jose has already beaten this team once this year – so it’s not impossible they do well. I do not mind this spot at all from a game theory perspective.
In smaller fields – You just have to decide weather or not to play COL1. If you’re going to fade, it’s pretty wide open. It’s definitely viable to go with a more balanced build – like two of NSH1, CHI1, and MIN2. I don’t hate that idea. You could also go to FLA2/PP with somebody like SEA1 or COL2. That’s another route. There’s so many ways to go. I wouldn’t get tunnel vision for COL1 and/or MacKinnon here.
In large fields, I’m probably fading COL1 and just getting under on COL or going over on COL2. There’s so many lines I like here that this is a great MME slate. FLA2 looks excellent. So do VGK2, the NSH/MIN game, CHI1, the BOS PP, SJ1, and even SEA1. You can go to secondary stuff that owned – such as LA1/3, WPG1/PP, or CGY as well. It’s borderline heresy for me – but I do like CGY3 and CHI3 enough to where I could see playing EDM1. It’s really hard to ignore them at 1% ownership when I like CHI3, CGY3, SEA3, and Danault/Gallagher/Matheson.
NHL Defense
- Cale Makar (8000) is the chalk at 22%. No big surprise there. I expect guys like Devon Toews (3300), Uvis Balinskas (3200), Gus Forsling (3600), Sam Rinzel (3600), and Brandt Clarke (4400) to all get 12-15% ownership.
- On the high end – I have my concerns with Zach Werenski (8700). He only played 22 minutes last night and he’s priced for 28-30. However, this could be a high-volume Power Play spot. He’s viable, but I much prefer Quinn Hughes (7800) playing half the game or more. Roman Josi (7000) seems fine at 8%. Evan Bouchard (7600) will have no ownership and looks good as well.
- There’s plenty to like in the mid-tier tonight as well. Josh Morrissey (5400), Brock Faber (5400), Mackenzie Weegar (5100), Brandon Montour (5000), and Thomas Harley (4900) all look solid.
- Vince Dunn (4500) is my favorite pivot away from chalky Clarke in the 4K range
- Filip Hronek (3900) and Mike Matheson (3900) both look ok in the high 3Ks
- If you’re hell-bent on playing COL – I do like Brent Burns (4100).
- I’m really going to try staying away from the cheap stuff tonight, but Uvis Balinskas (3200) look pretty good – even at ownership. You could definitely pivot to his pairing partner in Nikko Mikkola (3000) at no ownership as well.
Synopsis: There are so many strong plays here. I think getting under on COL and spending a little more at defense – while staying away from the high/low salary structure – makes sense tonight. I do really like Hughes and Josi though. Morrissey and Dunn are also clearly underpriced.
NHL Goalies
- I expect Spencer Knight (7300) to be the chalk at 17-20%. The field will also go to Jake Oettinger (8200) and whomever starts for the Kings.
- I don’t Mind John Gibson (7500) or Joey Daccord (7400).
- The big balls play of the night is Yaroslav Askarov (7100)
- Confirmed: Knight (CHI), Greaves (CBJ), Montembeault (MTL), Hellebuyck (WPG), Korpisalo (BOS), Bobrovsky (FLA), Gustavsson (MIN), Saros (NSH), Askarov (SJ), Blackwood (COL), Oettinger (DAL), Binnington (STL), Jarry (EDM), Cooley (CGY), Laniken (VAN), Schmid (VGK)
- Unconfirmed: Gibson (DET), Vejmelka (UTA), Daccord (SEA), Kuemper (LA)
Stacks and Theory
- You’ll have to decide on COL. They’re going to be massively owned. I’m against playing 10K skaters as chalk in principle – so my stance should be pretty clear. You could certainly pivot to COL2 or just play Nichushkin/Lehkonen/Makar and spend elsewhere though.
- From a construction standpoint – I think leaning towards 4/3/1 or 5/2/1 on a slate with this much talent makes a lot of sense. Spending more at defense or not using cheap guys is also a way to get different. There’s a ton of guys between 3900-5200 that I like
- It’s really wide open, but I do think FLA2 makes a lot of sense. The only issue is that they need the power play and the driving force of that unit is Sam Reinhart. Therefore, I think you can just play the 4-man.
- I’ve outlined a ton of spots I like. BOS/FLA, NSH/MIN, EDM/CGY, VGK, SEA, and CHI all stand out to me.
- I guess DAL is fine too, but that game environment and pace look rough
- Big balls leverage play of the day is Askarov and/or a SJ stack
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – Just decide how you want to handle COL1. You know my stance on expensive skaters in NHL DFS – especially at this ownership. I think there are a ton of viable alternatives. VGK2, FLA2, or a balanced build with two of NSH1/CHI1/MIN2 seems fine.
In larger fields – Decide on COL and go from there. NSH/MIN probably has substantially lower ownership than BOS/FLA – so that’s probably where I start. After that it’s wide open. Play who you like. I’d definitely spread out and focus on 4/3 and 5/2 builds if I were doing MME though. The Sharks and Kraken are two team that will definitely have leverage tonight though. Play NHL DFS tonight rather than Fantasy Hockey. That’s the path to creating the leverage to win.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm