NHL DFS Overview – Happy Lightning Line Day!

Happy Lightning Line day folks! When I refer to large field ownership – that is what I will be referring to today. This is a big day for NHL DFS.

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 2:30 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

 

NHL DFS Lines

 

 

• I only see one line and one team with significant ownership. That line is WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi) with ownership of 15-18%. WPG1 is in an elite spot against a Columbus team on the tail end of a road B2B that is awful defensively. They’re expensive, but we have loads of cheap Power Play defensemen tonight and some cheap value lines.
• That brings me to the Calgary Flames. CGY1 (Frost/Huberdeau/Coranato) is fully correlated on the Power Play at a cheap price. CGY2 (Kadri/Klapka/Kerins) has some very strong industry projections and includes their best player in Kadri. I suspect that we see 12-13% ownership on both of these CGY lines, but CGY2’s ownership will be heavily influenced by a popular Kadri. I think CGY will end up quite popular in the $222 – due to it being a sharper field that will stick closer to the projections than usual. If you’re playing something like the $5, they may be lower owned than that. Our projections are bearish on CGY tonight, but our matchups tool says this is a great spot for them. Just be aware that CGY is 4th in Shots on Goal, but 20th in high danger chances. You’re getting more quantity than quality here.
  
• Let’s talk about the team our models think is the obvious pivot away from the Flames – The St. Louis Blues. The Blues are the polar opposite of CGY. They are 7th in high danger chances and 22nd in shots on goal. They’re 7th in goals below expected, so some regression is also in the offing here. The Toronto Maple Leafs are also a pretty tremendous matchup these days. They were a shaky defensive team after losing Chris Tanev. Now they’ve lost their only good defensive blue-liner in Brandon Carlo and their starting goaltender in Anthony Stolarz. Austin Matthews wasn’t a great defensive player, but more ice time for Max Domi and John Tavares definitely will not help either. I’ve been picking on the Leafs with depth lines over the years and made a lot of money doing it. Now those depth players are in the top 6. I see no reason to hesitate in playing the Blues. Their lines are in flux though – so pay attention to my discord drops.
• Our models absolutely love Columbus as usual – so let’s talk about them. CBJ2 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Voronkov) will likely see 12-13% ownership at a comfortable price point of 16K. However, this is probably not the spot it seems to be for two reasons: 1) WPG has been missing one of the NHL’s most impactful defenders in Dylan Samberg until the last two games 2) WPG has been allowing the second most Power Plays in the NHL (3.8/game). However, the Columbus Power Play has been hot garbage all year (30th in expected goals) and they don’t draw many penalties either. They project well, it’s fine to play them, but I do think they’re overowned here. I’d rather be on the WPG side
• Our matchups tool likes this spot for UTA and the industry has strong projections on SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Kurashev). I think this game just kinda sucks, but SJ1 has been much better with Kurashev (3.82 xgoals/60) than Toffoli (1.89 xgoals/60) and the PP is VASTLY better without the worst defensemen in the NHL – John Klingberg. I don’t mind SJ1 here, but there’s other places I’d prefer to spend than on UTA1. My preferred way to attack this game is with cheap UTA3 (McBain/Crouse/Peterka) or SJ3 (Toffoli/Dellandrea/Gaudette). They both create a solid amount of offense and come at cheap prices that allow me to fit my clear favorite stack on the board.
• That stack is DET1 (Larkin/Debrincat/Raymond). This line is generating an astronomical 4.59 xGoals/60, 80.25 shot attempts/60*. On Sunday, they took an elite defensive team in the Rangers with the best defensive pairing in hockey (Fox/Gavrikov) and beat them senseless to the tune of 18 shots on goal in 20 minutes. The only reason they didn’t completely destroy them – like they did Anaheim and Buffalo – was Jon Quick standing on his head. Despite that, they scored 60 DK points on only 2 goals. I don’t think facing a SEA shutdown line – centered by an absolute statue in Chandler Stephenson – allowing 70 shots/60 is going to slow these guys down at all. I do not care about the slow pace of SEA or Joey Daccord being back. I don’t expect them to garner much more than 8% ownership. You can add on Mo Seider, Axel Sandin-Pelikka, or Simon Edvinsson as the 4th piece as well. The field will go to WPG1 and UTA1 in better matchups or the 18K lines before DET1. There’s plenty of cheap stacks to play them with as well.

• Speaking of things getting run over, let’s talk about the Dallas Power Play against the Islanders. The Dallas Power Play has generation a silly 17 expected goals and 27 high danger chances on the Power Play so far*. The Islanders have allowed a ridiculously bad 17 expected goals on the penalty kill so far*. They only commit an average amount of penalties and Dallas only draws an average amount, but they’re unlikely to need a huge amount of opportunities to cash in. Roope Hintz is the distributor on the PP – and he’s also the cheapest of the F/Cs. Jason Robertson is priced at a somewhat egregious 7800 – but he’s been the best PP scorer in the NHL so far. I think that’s where you start. Whomever else you want to include – you can. I’m probably going to Wyatt Johnston as the net front guy, but Rantanen is their best player. Heiskanen never projects that well, but he’s one of my favorite defensemen. You can also go to Petrovic or Lyubushkin as 2500 Defensemen to add on and save salary. If you’re playing an even strength line, I prefer DAL2 – they just create a little better at even strength. It’s splitting hairs though. Lock n’ Load these guys.
• I Mentioned I like a few of the cheap lines here: Those are: UTA3 (mostly Peterka/Crouse), SJ3 (Dellandrea/Toffoli/Gaudette), CBJ1 (Monahan/Johnson/Chinakov), WPG3 (Lowry/Neiderreiter/Iafallo), and TB3 (Gourde/Bjorkstrand/Paul).

 

Synopsis: I don’t think there’s a clear answer here for small fields. If you want to play a CBJ/CGY or SJ lineup – that’s probably fine. WPG1/CGY2 is probably the chalk. I wish everyone the best of luck with chalky Flames.

In larger fields, you can go a ton of different ways tonight. Our projections love Columbus and St. Louis. I strongly prefer DET1 to chalkier WPG1 and DAL2 to chalky NJ1 or CBJ2. I just tend to think teams like CBJ and TOR just get naturally higher owned than they should because the public and projections both believe in them. I wouldn’t be surprised if TOR1 ends up as high as NJ1 either. Overall, my preferred approach is to build around a more expensive stack tonight. DET1 is my favorite, but a DAL PP stack is close behind. UTA3, SJ3, WPG3, and DET4 are my top cheap lines. A CHI or NYI PP stack will likely be solid leverage, but I suspect that the CHI PP ends up overowned due to CGY’s reputation as a penalty-happy team. They look good, but I don’t want them if Bertuzzi is out.

Overall, ownership isn’t a huge factor anywhere for me tonight – except with CGY and maybe CBJ2. I think there are strong alternatives to playing a chalky CGY stack.

NHL F/C One-Offs

 

• The guys that stand out strongly to me are: Arseny Gritsyuk (3200), Nick Robertson (3900), Anders Lee (4100), Dylan Holloway (5300), Jordan Kyrou (5500), Timo Meier (5600), and Roope Hintz (5900). They all look underpriced or leveraged to me in one way or another. My favorite one-offs are Alex DeBrincat (7300) and Jason Robertson (7800). Hat Trick alert.
• Cheap PP guys: Cowan (2500), Dalibor Dvorsky (3000), Alex Wennberg (3200), Eeli Tolvanen (3400), and Braeden Bowman (3500). Dvorsky is the most viable. The rest of these dudes stand in the corner.
• Known Net Front PP guys: Cuylle, Meier, Kyrou, W. Johnston, Debrincat, Point, Hertl

My one-off Pool

C: Bedard, Celebrini, Tavares, Johnston, Scheifele, Hischier, Hintz, Hertl, Fantilli, Sundqvist

W: Nylander, Robertson, DeBrincat, Marchenko, Raymond, Meier, Kyrou, Holloway, W. Smith, Cuylle, Kane, Peterka, Schwartz, Robertson, Coleman, Bjorkstrand, Heineman, Gritsyuk, Crouse, Cowan

Synopsis: Quite a few of my cheap stacks could easily be 2-mans to jam in a solid one-off. I don’t see this as a particularly high-scoring slate, so getting those guys with multiple goals and/or big scores will be extra advantageous.

 

NHL Defense

 

• Zack Werenski (7500) is likely the highest owned, but probably only 15% or so. Simon Nemec (3500) or Rasmus Andersson (4600) will be the second most popular defensemen – if he’s even still on the PP with Dougie Hamilton a GTD. Throw Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3500), Darren Raddysh (3600), and whichever homeless guy runs the SJ PP into that bucket of 10% owned cheap guys if Hedman is out.
• I definitely like Axel Sandin-Pelikka (3100) for DET. He’s a defensive prospect with a solid shot. Miro Heiskanen (5700) is another guy I like. Brandon Montour (5100) and Vince Dunn (5000) have solid ceilings – and upside for blocked shots aplenty – as the metaphorical punching bags for DET1. Cam Fowler (3400), Artyom Levshunov (3700), and Justin Faulk (3900) suck, but have PP equity. Obviously the min-priced Sharks guy will be a solid play too.
• #TeamNonPP: Moritz Seider (5600), Morgan Reilly (4400), Alex Vlasic (3300), Dylan Samberg (3200), Esa Lindell (3100), Adam Larsson (3000), Ben Chiarot (2600), Alex Petrovic (2500), Ilya Lyubushkin (2500), and Mudahudawhatever for the Sharks (2500).

Synopsis: In smaller fields – I think you just play two of Werenski, Nemec (if no Hamilton), Ekman-Larsson, Andersson, or whomever is on the PP for SJ. In larger fields, I really like Sandin-Pelikka, Heiskanen, Dunn, Montour, Samberg, Petrovic, and Lyubushkin. You can definitely punt a spot at D tonight. It’s not a super deep or very well-projected pool past Werenski.

 

 

NHL Goalies

 

 

• I’m sure Jake Oettinger (8400) will get some ownership, but my guess is Joseph Woll (7900) and Dustin Wolf (7600) will be the highest owned in low-double digits. Igor Shesterkin (7300) will also draw double digit ownership in the huge $5. He’s a big name at a cheap price.
• Yeah projections are pretty flat across the industry. I expect ownership to be pretty flat in the $222 as well.

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

 

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• I think the chalk builds are WPG1/CGY1 and CBJ2/SJ1. These are both builds with solid projection and power play correlation that people will feel good about.
• Our projections like CBJ2, CBJ1, STL1, STL2, TOR1, and WPG1 among others
• The matchups tool, market shares tool, and the industry as a whole like CBJ2, WPG1, and SJ1
• Werenski, Nemec, Raddysh, Ekman-Larsson, Andersson, and whomever runs the SJ PP look like the chalky defensemen.
• I strongly prefer the expensive lines tonight. WPG1 is fine, but it’s going to be a lot of ownership. I think DET1 and the DAL PP both make a ton of sense. Ownership does not suggest to me that the field has realized how good DET1 is. People will play both Dallas lines, but not as much as they should. TOR1, VGK2, and maybe even NJ1 could be higher owned than them. I think that’s probably a mistake.
• I think a CHI PP stack is the leverage play here. However, I like it a lot less without Bertuzzi.
• There’s plenty of cheap lines tonight. UTA3, SJ3, CBJ1, and WPG3 are all interesting pivots off higher owned stuff.
• Plenty of cheap defensemen tonight. Just don’t ignore Heiskanen, Montour, Seider, and Dunn in the mid-tier

 

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – I think you can play CBJ2 or SJ1 – but probably not both. I’d rather just play WPG1 and find some cheap stuff – even though I expect the SJ PP to be much better without Klingberg. I’m not playing any chalky Leafs. The STL goaltending won’t be this bad forever. They have no Matthews and no puck movers on defense.

In larger fields, DET1 and DAL PP stand above the rest for me. UTA1 is fine too, but I think DET is much better. NJ1, DAL2, and both of the top STL lines look reasonably contrarian as well.

Overall, I don’t think there’s a ton of ownership constraints. I do have concerns about the CGY and CBJ chalk though. I think there are very valid pivots. I also prefer the expensive stacks to the mid-tier. I do not think this is a particularly high-scoring slate considering the projections around the industry.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm