Welcome to Friday’s small 5 game slate of NHL DFS. This is an interesting slate with two very heavy chalk spots – so let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 2 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

 

 

NHL DFS Lines

 

• We have two very strong chalk spots on tonight’s slate. Those are DET facing SJ and Los Angeles facing ANA. The two chalkiest lines of the night are DET2 (Copp/DeBrincat/Kane) and LAK3 (Turcotte/Fiala/Kuzmenko). Both of these lines have been very good this year and consistently produced offense. However, you are definitely paying for it at 25% ownership each. LAK1 (LaFerriere/Kempe/Malott), LAK2 (Byfield/Foegele/Ward), and DET1 (Larkin/Raymond/JVR) all come in between 15-17% as well. I would not be surprised if I end up moving DET1 ahead of the other two though. Every iteration of SJ1 with Celebrini and Chernyshov has been awful defensively. However, I digress. These teams are both in elite power play spots against bad defenses at reasonable prices. It’s hard to hate the two best spots of the night when they’re this clear.
• So how does one get around the fact that these are the two best spots? Well, the first thing to point out is just don’t play DET2/LAK3 in any field size. This includes builds where you drop Turcotte and get up to an expensive center by playing two cheap defensemen. I think going with a larger stack of one team or another is one reasonable way to go. However, I would be loathe to drop Andrew Copp from a DET2 stack. I’d prefer to add Larkin on top as the 4th guy. I think the Kings are a tougher fade than DET though due to the cheap prices on guys like Kuzmenko, Foegele, and Byfield. That type of value just does not exist elsewhere on the slate – where as alternatives to Detroit do exist. 
• For me – the top alternative to Detroit is Carolina. They are at home – so they should be able to control the matchups somewhat – and that’s critical for the Hurricanes. It will allow them to match the Staal/Martinook line against FLA1 and CAR1 (Aho/Ehlers/Svechnikov) against the Florida depth which has struggled to defend all year. This is also a strong power play spot for CAR against the always penalty-happy Panthers – who sport the worst PK in the NHL since Christmas. The Carolina Power Play has not been good at all over the same span, but these guys are talented and it’s a good get-right spot for them. I definitely do not mind CAR2 (Stankoven/Hall/Blake) on the cheaper end either. They are in a similarly strong spot, just without the power play exposure.
• The other team we have to discuss here is Colorado and their gargantuan 4.72 total per our tools. COL1 (MacKinnon/Lehkonen/Necas) is obviously the best line on the slate – and maybe in the NHL. Their 23K tag is somewhat problematic though with the recently tightened pricing on skaters. You can certainly play them with LAK2 or LAK3 if you spend down at both defense spots, but there’s definitely a very real opportunity cost. They seem likely to be around 12-15% owned – so firmly in the second tier of ownership. I don’t hate it. COL2 (Nelson/Nichushkin/Colton) and COL3 (Drury/Olofsson/Kelly) are in strong spots tonight as well. I find COL3 particularly interesting due to their matchup with a bottom of the Predators roster that features some of the worst defensive combinations among all qualified lines. I think a very sensible way to build with COL is a larger stack that utilizes the cheap COL3 guys as value to fit the front-line players.
• SJ1 (Celebrini/Graf/Chernyshov) and SJ2 (Wennberg/Eklund/Toffoli) both project for 12-15% ownership as well. They seem fine, but I would rather spend my ownership in other spots than the Sharks tonight.
• There’s two large field spots I want to highlight here and the first is Amaheim. Darcy Kuemper projects as heavy chalk and the Kings have definitely been known to take some penalties. I don’t mind going to ANH1 (Strome/Kreider/Killorn), but ANH3 (Poehling/Gauthier/Terry) or a PP combination would be my preference. The other spot to mention is Tampa Bay against St. Louis. The Blues goaltending has been absolutely awful this year. If you want to attack it with TB1 (Paul/Kucherov/Guentzel) I think that’s totally fine. I also like TB3 (Gourde/Holmberg/Girgensons) as a dirt cheap filler if you need on to play COL + Makar or something.
• TB has been committing a ton of penalties since Christmas. A STL Power Play stack of Kyrou/Schenn/Snuggerud might be a cheap, sneaky play tonight.

In smaller fields – I am avoiding DET2/LAK3 combinations. It’s just too chalky. I think larger DET and LAK stacks both make sense here. The same goes for a large COL stack with COL3 on top of some of the PP guys. 

In larger fields, I think you can definitely get away from Detroit if you want. CAR1, NSH1, and TB1 are all reasonable options. I think the larger COL stack I mentioned above is also a thought. Overall, I think this is a slate where I am inclined to lean toward larger 5 and 6-man stacks as opposed to the 3 and 4-man stacks. It is hard to get that far away from the Kings for me though. There’s just nothing else in their price range that projects even close to as well. Anaheim is definitely a strong leverage spot tonight in a game with some overlooked volatility to it.

 

NHL Defense

 

• The two highest owned defensemen here are Cale Makar (8000) and Brandt Clarke (5000) at 25% each. Mo Seider (6200) comes in at 20% and Darren Raddysh (6000) at 15%.
• This dynamic will change if Shayne Gostisbehere (5500) sits and Alexander Nikishin (3200) or Sean Walker (3500) ends up running the power play for Carolina. Should that happen I wouls assume Makar’s ownership goes down and COL1’s ownership goes up.
• As it stands I like Joel Edmundson (2600), Nick Blankenburg (2700), and Gustav Forsling (3300) as cheap non-PP defensemen
• Uvis Balinskas (2800), Cam Fowler (3200) and Pavel Mintyukov (3300) are all dirt cheap PP defensemen that are in play tonight.

Synopsis: It’s interesting that there are so many cheap power play defensemen tonight – because the value is really useful. I don’t hate going to two of these guys at all as long as the ownership stays under control – but I assume that’s how folks will get COL1 here.

NHL Goalies

 

• Darcy Kuemper (7800) is the clear chalk on this slate at 30% owned. I assume MacKenzie Blackwood (8400) and Andrei Vasilevsky (8000) follow him at 17-20% each.
• You will not feel good about any of the guys besides them and maybe Brandon Bussi (7900). 

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• DET1/LAK3 with Makar looks like the chalk build, but I may change my mind on that. I could see it being COL1/LAK3 with two cheap Power Play defensemen as well.
• The Kings are definitely harder to get away from than DET. There’s just nothing else that compares at their prices
• I think a DET or LAK 6-man stack is a strong way to go on this slate.
• I can definitely see CAR being the X-Factor here. It’s a great spot for their power play to break out and their first line should have strong matchups early in this game.
• Anaheim is definitely the leverage play on this slate. They’re ok, but I’m not enamored with them
• I do not think the double cheap defensemen build will be the chalk, but I am undecided. Our tools see COL as the best team on the slate by a lot, but I will circle back and update my thoughts on where I see the field going.

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – Sticking with the Kings makes sense here. I could see going to DET, COL, or maybe even CAR here. It just depends on how you value the defensemen outside of Makar. I don’t value them particularly highly myself, so I’d probably go full COL1 and be fine with it.

In larger fields – CAR1 or a full DET 6-man stack are my favorite plays tonight. I can also definitely see going to the COL1/COL3 double stack here. It makes a ton of sense given the matchups. CAR2 is also a strong pivot away from the Kings should you want one. I don’t really have an overarching theory for this slate, but pay attention in the discord. I’ll probably drop one later.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm