Welcome to a somewhat tricky NHL DFS slate. The pricing is pretty tight on this 7-gamer. Let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

*Justin Sourdif is questionable for WSH tonight. If he is out I expect WSH to go with Strome/Ovechkin/Beauviller and McMichael/Protas/Wilson as their top 2 lines. That would make it even easier to play WSH1/NSH1

NHL DFS Lines

 

• The pricing is pretty tight in a lot of spots – and it will definitely create interesting dynamics. There are quite a few cheap teams that project well – but no expensive lines that project well to go with them. This is going to really hone folks in on the more balanced constructions. I expect the chalk combination to be NSH1 (O’Reilly/Forsberg/Stamkos) and WSH1 (Strome/Ovechkin/Protas)*. I have them both at around 20% each. The injury Dynamics with WSH make this even more likely for the reason I mentioned above. TOR1 (Matthews/McMann/Domi) also likely comes in at 16% ownership. Those who want to pay up for a defensemen like Roman Josi (6200) or Jakob Chycrun (7000) will likely end up going to the current iteration of WSH2 (Sourdif/Wilson/McMichael), BOS2 (Pastrnak/Minten/Khustnutdinov), or some combination of cheap Canucks Power Play guys. I have the first two around 10% owned, but everything spreads out a bit more when you get past the top 3 lines.
• I have no real issue with any of these lines. WSH is in an elite spot against CHI – and may even luck out by getting Soderblom insetad of Knight. TOR is in a strong spot against an Islanders team that just bleeds high danger chances and will be without Vezina candidate Ilya Sorokin for one more game. NSH is also in a strong spot against a CGY team playing high-event hockey that also bleeds high danger chances. You can pick your favorite and go to 5 or 6-man stacks for sure. The ownership is just really going to concentrate like a freeway with multiple closed lanes.
• I’m going to take a moment here to talk about this NSH/CGY game. I suspect that both sides have ownership here, but both teams are in the top 5 of both high danger chances generated and allowed over the last 10 games. Both of these teams continue to commit plenty of penalties, but CGY has been drawing a lot more lately. Their Power Play is still terrible, but sometimes you can bang two in on 5-6 chances. I definitely do not mind going to the CGY Power play here, but I prefer it as a full 5-man stack with all of them or something like 4 of them and one of Farabee/Sharangovich. Going to a larger stack of a cheaper team is definitely a way to offload some ownership in all field types tonight. The Islanders, Kings, and Canucks are also strong candidates for builds like this. I prefer VAN against penalty-happy Boston if picking between those two though. That BOS/VAN game will have a lot of ownership around it though.
  
• None of the expensive stacks project particularly well tonight. I think the first spot the field goes on the expensive end is definitely WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi) against Merlainen. If WPG scores, it’s probably the first line. Their depth has been terrible this year and it’s one of the things that’s been killing them. OTT commits plenty of penalties, it’s an inter-Canada game, and the Sens have been awful on the PK all year. It’s definitely viable to drop Vilardi and go to a Scheifele/Connor/Nyquist/Morrissey Power Play stack as well. Gus Nyquist is terrible, but also 2700. I think it’s totally fine to go with COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Landeskog). That game will have the highest pace by a lot and I’ve said all season I’m just not a believer in the CAR goaltending. It’s really not a penalty-heavy spot though and the COL Power Play has really struggled all year. I’m not really interested in a MacKinnon/Nelson/Nichushkin stack. COL2 is also fine, but I wouldn’t play them because of Power Play correlation.
• There are two expensive stacks I like tonight. The first is OTT2 (Tkachuk/Batherson/Cozens). I expect the Sens to have the Pinto line chase WPG1 around. They’ve been great defensively. I am happy to take my chances with this line against the WPG depth and PK – both of which have really struggled this year. The second one is the Minnesota Power Play. I know it’s their 3rd game in 4 nights – but these guys just had 3 days off last week and they aren’t even switching hotels on this B2B. The Kings also continue to take a boatload of penalties – and their PK has really begun to struggle again. They’re dead last in expected goals against on the PK in their last 20 games. Eriksson Ek/Kaprizov/Zuccarello is only 18.4K and the field will be off them. They look like a super strong large field play.
• I don’t really care too much about B2Bs when teams had 3 days off last week. If you want to use them as a tiedbreaker – that’s fine. I just prefer to play it this way to get the ownership discount.

In smaller fields – I think you can pick from the 3 chalky lines. WSH is the clear priority if Soderblom is in net – and my guess is that’s what happens with Vegas coming in tomorrow. I probably prefer TOR1 to NSH1 here – just due to the volatility of the NSH/CGY game. If you want to spend down on a line – I think the CGY or VAN Power Plays are both reasonably choices.

In larger fields, I really like either playing a larger stack of a cheaper team like CGY or VAN. A larger TOR stack is also viable, but be sure you roll in non-PP guys to that one. It’s just not much of a spot for power play volume. OTT2 and a MIN Power Play stack are the two lower owned plays that really interest me tonight. I don’t hate going to COL1 either. I really like MIN here though. I just don’t see people going there.

 

NHL Defense

 

• The popular guys are going to be Jakob Chycrun (6700), Roman Josi (6200), Rasmus Andersson (5800), Matthew Schaefer (5700), Charlie McAvoy (4900), Brandt Clarke (4100), and Filip Hronek (3700). I have them all between 12-16%. Josh Morrissey (5600) and Morgan Reilly look to be about 10%. I’m fine with any of these guys, but that’s a big tag for Chycrun considering he doesn’t play with the first line a majority of the time.
• Cale Makar (8300) is definitely a strong play tonight. He should be 5-7% owned. I obviously like Jake Sanderson (6800) at around the same ownership as well
• Quinn Hughes at 2-3% looks like a smash play to me.
• Brady Skjei (3100) and Tony Deangelo (3200), Hampus Lindholm (3700), and Drew Doughty (3700) seem solid on the cheaper end
• If you want to play WSH – I think a Chycrun/Roy or Chycrun/Carlson pairing in a larger stack is a strong play. You could also play Josi/Skjei, Clarke/Doughty, Buium/Hronek, or McAvoy/H. Lindholm pairings in their respective stacks.

Synopsis: The chalk guys are all fine. Chycrun seems a bit over priced, but you can offset that by playing him with Roy. Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes look like really strong contrarian plays at lower ownership. I don’t think you need them in smaller fields though. There’s plenty of cheap value as well.

 

NHL Goalies

 

• Joseph Woll (7500), Connor Hellebuyck (7200) and Juuse Saros (7300) look like the chalky guys at 15%. Logan Thompson probably comes in around 10%.
• I’m fine with whomever. Jesper Wallstedt (7600) also seems fine.

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

 

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• The pricing likely condenses ownership on balanced builds with WSH1, TOR1, WSH2, and NSH1. I think it’s fine to go that route in smaller fields – but I do like Connor/Scheifele/Nyquist/Morrissey in those events quite a bit.
• It’s a good night to play two defensemen from the same team and/or pairing to offset ownership. Plenty of pairings project well.
• I think a 5 or 6-man stack of a cheaper team like CGY, VAN, BOS, or NYI could definitely pay off. I prefer CGY for the reasons I outlined above. These stacks do particularly well on lower scoring slates – which tonight looks like it may be.
• If you like narratives – the vitrol Islanders fans have for John Tavares is real and will never die. He tends to bring his best when they travel to Long Island
• WPG 4-man stacks, WSH 4/5/6-man stacks, LAK 3-man stacks sim particularly well in large fields for me. OTT2 and 5/6-man MIN stacks pop up in the top 20 as well.
• I really like OTT2 and the MIN Power Play at low ownership. I don’t care about 3-in-4 for MIN after they were off last week.
• Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar look like incredibly strong plays.

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – you can pick from the 3 chalky lines. I think a larger WSH stack with two of their defensemen is a particularly strong play. I do like the CGY and LAK Power Plays in these formats quite a bit though.

In larger fields, the cheaper power play and double defense stacks look particularly strong. WSH stacks of anything bigger than 3 are fine. WPG also looks strong – but I like playing Nyquist to be a bit different despite him being hot garbage. OTT2 and the MIN Power Play both look like really strong, low owned plays. Those two stacks stick out like a sore thumb for me in large field events like the $5 or $20.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm