Welcome to Thursday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a monster 13 game slate on tap for tonight. Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 4 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- So there’s less so a chalk line today than a chalk team – and its the Kings with LAK1 (Panarin/Kopitar/Kempe) and LAK2 (Laferriere/Moore/Byfield) at 13% each. They’re on the road tied for the slate’s second highest total against the traveling clown show that is the Vancouver Canucks. The chalk is definitely going to be a Kings 4-man stack of some sort – either LAK1+LaFerriere, LAK1+ Clarke, or LAK2 + Clarke. It’s fine and not actually that much ownership, but it’s a huge slate that’s pretty flat.
- After that is where things get a little murky. I have the most popular pairing with the Kings as either CGY1 (Backlund/Coleman/Farabee) or CGY2 (Frost/Coranato/Gridin) – but they’re just barely under 10% each against this Ducks team that – while they’re winning – isn’t stopping anyone from scoring. There’s just a ton of well-projected cheap lines like ANH3 (Gauthier/Poehling/Veil), SJ2 (Eklund/Graf/Wennberg), SJ3 (Misa/Sherwood/Regenda), PHI1 (Dvorak/Konecny/Bump) and PIT2 (Mantha/Chinakov/Novak) that are lower owned.
- So – per usual – our model projects Anaheim and San Jose really well. I have absolutely no problem going to ANH1 (Carlsson/Kreider/Terry) or a power play stack with Gauthier and/or Carlson. ANH2 (Granlund/Sennecke/Killorn). I suspect ANH1 ends up around 10% owned by lock – but they’re still a strong play given the projection and very high pace of the game. The Sharks are somewhat of a different story. SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Chernyshov) have been excellent in a limited sample and the project extremely well for us – but I do have my concerns here. The pace of this game just really sucks and the Sharks just don’t create a lot of shots (although a big percentage of them are higher quality). It feels like I’m relying on the Blues defense and goaltending being awful at their price. That very well could happen – but I’d still rather go to the depth lines in SJ3 or SJ2.
- The PIT/OTT game is one that really piques my interest tonight. I wrote over the break that you shouldn’t stack against the Senators at home – but Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson are both out. That will put a lot more pressure on Linus Ullmark to step up his game. Our projections really like PIT2 – but I think PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Rakell) is also in play. The Pinto line has been lights out defensively – but so have all 3 of Ottawa’s defensive pairings. It’s hard to tell where one starts and the other begins – so I’m fine looking at the Sens defense as a bit worse than usual (which is still very good). You’re pretty much playing for the Power Play here – so I’d throw Erik Karlsson (5600) onto the stack as well. It’s a large field play – but the pace and shot volume projects as decent. They’re my top play in this game I think you can also attack the Ottawa side. None of these PIT lines are good defensively. I prefer OTT2 (Tkachuk/Cozens/Greig), but OTT1 (Stuetzle/Batherson/Giroux) or a power play stack is also fine.
- I like this NSH/NJ game quite a bit as well. Both of these teams have been super sus defensively and in net for quite awhile now. I like all of the top 2 lines on both sides here and I definitely do not mind a power play stack on the Nashville side. O’Reilly/Forsberg/Josi/Stamkos or Evangelista is totally fine. NJ2 (Hughes/Bratt/Brown) would be my favorite on that side.
- Either side of the CBJ/MTL game is fine. I don’t have an issue with anyone in that game – but my preference would be CBJ1 + Werenski or some sort of CBJ PP combination.
- There are a lot of expensive stacks to play tonight. I’m just not all that fired up about TB1 (Cirelli/Hagel/Kucherov), DAL1 (Johnston/Bourque/Robertson) or COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Landeskog). If I’m going to these stacks I’m playing a Sharks depth line and just being done with it though. COL1, TB1, then DAL1 would be how I grade them – but I love none of them.
- If you want to go with an expensive stack – I think a MIN Power Play stack makes a lot of sense tonight against penalty-happy Florida. Minnesota wants to play Physical hockey and the Panthers will Oblige. I think you could also go to FLA1 (Bennett/Tkachuk/Verhaege), but I won’t be for reasons I’ve stated many times.
- Here is your obligatory reference to the Vegas Gooolden Knights. They project well against against Edmonton. Do what you will.
In smaller fields – You can play the Kings – but it’s pretty wide open. ANH1, Nashville, and New Jersey all look pretty good tonight. It’s a choose your own adventure slate.
In large fields, I like Anaheim – but I have a sense that game gets plenty of ownership on both sides. I think the NSH/NJ game is a really sharp play tonight. So is PIT/OTT, the SJ depth, and the FLA/MIN game. I think there’s a ton of depth here – more than the 15 gamer a few days ago – so it’s a good MME slate. The OTT Power Play stack certainly stands out for reasons we are about to discuss. It’s another huge game for them.
NHL Defense
- Ok so before we get into ownership we need to talk about Carter Yakemchuk (2500) running the power play for Ottawa. He only played 12 minutes in his NHL debut the other night – but considering he scored at even strength and had an assist on the Power Play in the Senators biggest game of the season – he could certainly play more. I just kind of doubt it due to his poor defense. He also makes a Sens power play stack that much stronger though because he is a truly gifted puck mover on the Power play.
- Darren Raddysh (6200), Zach Werenski (8000), Lane Hutson (5000), and John Carlson (5100) are between 10-15%
- I really like Roman Josi (7400) and Quinn Hughes (6800) on the high end. It makes sense to play Yakemchuk to get one of them.
- Erik Karlsson (5600) is definitely my go-to in the mid-tier. Dougie Hamilton (5500) also seems fine
- Brock Faber (4800), Luke Hughes (4400), Philip Broberg (4400), and Drew Doughty (3300) look great.
- You could go to Simon Nemec (2700) instead of Yakemchuk – but I don’t really care about the latter’s ownership. It won’t be high enough to matter.
I don’t hate Josi or Hughes as a spend – and it’s easy to get them with Yakemchuk or Nemec. I like Karlsson and Hamilton quite a bit as well.
NHL Goalies
- I have Jake Oetttinger (8100), Andrei Vasilevsky (8500), and Jesper Wallstedt between 12-15% each. That will be changing though because I assume Logan Thompson will get plenty of traction at 7200.
- I also like Ilya Sorokin (7300), Kevin Laniken (7200), and Spencer Knight (7300)
- Confirmed: Wallstedt (MIN), Tarasov (FLA), Knight (CHI), Oettinger (DAL), Sorokin (NYI), Skinner (PIT), Ullmark (OTT), Greaves (CBJ), Blackwood (COL), Hellebuyck (WPG), Askarov (SJ), Hofer (STL), Cooley (CGY), Husso (ANH), Ingram (EDM), Hill (VGK), Laniken (VAN)
- Unconfirmed: Kuemper (LAK), Thompson (WSH), Vanacek (UTA), Annunen (NSH), Markstrom (NJ), Grubauer (SEA), Vasilevsky (TB), Dobes (MTL), Vladar (PHI)
Stacks and Theory
- The chalk build is likely an LAK/CGY build, but it’s not going to be real intense chalk. I expect ANH1 and ANH PP to be pretty chalky as well.
- It’s probably a 4/3/1 or 3/3 slate for me unless you really want to play chalky Kings. I don’t think they are worth it though.
- I’m staying away from expensive skaters for the most part – but I do like the MIN PP quite a bit. TB1 or COL1 are also fine.
- I like Anaheim quite a bit, just be somewhat careful how you deploy them. I would not pair them with Kings.
- I like the Sharks – as does the model – but I’m more bullish on the depth than SJ1. The pace and projected shot volume of that game just isn’t very good. It’s reliant on power plays and bad goaltending.
- NSH/NJ and OTT/PIT project as games to attack here. NSH1, NSH2, PIT1, and the OTT PP all stand out here.
- Yakemchuk is totally fine at 2500 – but there are playing time concerns for him. I do like him if you want to jam Josi or Q. Hughes though
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – you can go to Kings or Flames, but I’ll pass. Choose your own adventure – but I do like PIT1, NSH, ANH, and the SJ depth here.
In larger fields – It’s wide open, but I want to be under on Calgary for sure. Handle the Kings how you want. I’d go under on them. ANH, NSH, NJ, PIT, OTT, VGK, and MIN all stand out here
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm