Welcome to Monday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a 5 game slate on tap for tonight – so Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 4 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- We have two clear chalk teams tonight in VGK against Vancouver and COL against Calgary. I have VGK1 (Eichel/Barbashev/Stone) coming in at 25% owned and VGK2 (Marner/Dorofeyev/Howden) at 21%. Vegas is facing the trainwreck that is the Vancouver Canucks tonight. They unsurprisingly project very well at affordable prices. I will preach a word of caution – they did just fire long-time head coach Bruce Cassidy and hire…..ugh……John Tortarella. I have no idea what to expect here – but Torts is pretty rigid in regards to his defensive, neutral-zone trap style of play. He’s been in charge about a day so who knows weather that shows itself tonight – but it’s something to watch going forward. COL1 (MacKinnon/Lehkonen/Necas) comes in at 15% tonight as well. It’s not quite as good a spot as Vegas but the Avs are a much better offense and 19.5K is a reasonable price. I think you are choosing between these two teams in Smaller fields and Single Entries – but I do really like COL2 (Nelson/Lehkonen/Nichushkin) at 8% as well. They look like a strong option at lower ownership.
- The lines accruing secondary ownership are NYI1 (horvat/Heineman/Lee), SJ1 (Celebrini/Chernyshov/Smith), and TOR1 (Tavares/Nylander/Cowan). Our projections really like the last two, but they all come in around 15% owned apiece. SJ1 projects really well, but I have major concerns about the pace of this game against the Blues. Just like last week – I prefer to play the Sharks depth lines and SJ2 (Wennberg/Eklund/Sherwood) looks particularly good in that department. SJ3 (Toffoli/Graf/Misa) also looks pretty good.
- This PIT/NYI game is absolutely critical for both teams and could determine which has home ice advantage in a potential first round playoff matchup. We do not project them as well as TOR1/SJ1, but it’s hard to say anything other than NYI1 (Horvat/Heineman/Lee) have been fantastic. 3.62 xGA and 80 shot attempts per 60 are fantastic numbers for a line priced at 16.4. I’m fine with them at their moderate ownership. NYI2 (Barzal/Schenn/Ritchie) have also been excellent in a small 40 minute sample – posting 4.16 xGA and 65 shot attempts per 60. I like them a fair amount at their 3-4% ownership and I could see both of these lines ending up lower owned than currently projected. It saddens me to see my guy Ilya Sorokin’s play fall off, but it has happened recently. Therefore, I definitely think the PIT side of this game is in play. NYI1 has been dreadful defensively, so PIT1 (Crosby/Rakell/Mantha) is definitely in play assuming Crosby (GTD) plays – and I assume he does given the importance of this one. You can also go to PIT2 (Rust/Novak/Chinakov), but that line is not likely to move the puck as well without Malkin. I really do like the Islanders on this slate and I think the industry is overestimating their ownership
- Lets’ talk about this Toronto/Anaheim game now. Anaheim is – once again – our model’s favorite play. There’s good reason as to why. The Leafs are already mentally in Tahiti as evidenced by the thrashing they got at the hands of the Blues the other night. TOR1 is coming in with ownership, but I’m fine fading them. Anaheim looks fantastic. ANH1 (Carlsson/Kreider/Terry) project as an elite value and with the third highest raw score of the slate for us. They look very strong, but I’m not entirely sure if they’re ownership is 10% or 15%. I could definitely see them being chalkier than TOR1 or NYI1. I’ve pretty consistently been more accurate than the industry on these public teams. I’ll post my conclusion before lock. ANH3 (Gauthier/Veil/Poehling) is the clear chalk secondary line of the slate at 12% ownership. I will not argue with anyone who wants to play Gauthier. He’s a fantasy hockey monster and that line has posted a fantastjc 3.33 xGA/60. ANH2 (Granlund/Sennecke/Killorn) is accruing very little ownership at 13.4K, but they haven’t been a slouch at 2.75 xGA/60. That’s pretty close to ANH1’s 2.98 – and this isn’t likely to be a spot where there are many power plays. I’m a bit wary of ANH3’s ownership, I think ANH1 probably ends up correctly owned at around 15%, and ANH2 is clearly underowned.
- If you want a strong value to play with COL1’s monster 22K price tag – which I do not necessarily endorse playing – I do think the Canucks make some sense as they project well for us. Any of their top 3 lines make sense – but I probably prefer VAN3 (Kane/Bluegar/DeBrusk) just due to the talent on it. It’s not a strong lean though
- The low owned team that I want to talk about tonight is the St. Louis Blues. STL1 (Thomas/Snuggerud/Holloway) have been fantastic – but they are 19.5K now so it’s a serious investment. My interest is more in STL2 (Kyrou/Buchnevich/Neighbours). Their underlying numbers are about the same as STL1 and they come with a much cheaper price of 12.6. I think you can go to either of the top 2 lines here tonight and the Blues are definitely a large field sleeper at low ownership.
- The clear sicko play of the night is Calgary against super chalk Scott Wedgewood. I think turning to the depth lines in CGY2 (Coranato/Frost/Gridin) or CGY3 (Olofsson/Strome/Sharangovich) us a viable leverage play and one sims will likely preach.
In smaller fields – Probably just go to VGK, ANH1/NYI1, or COL1 and a cheap line. I really do like Anaheim tonight in smaller fields – as Colorado always gets more ownership in those than they should and they ownership corresponds to industry projections much more closely.
In large fields, I like Anaheim – but I have a sense that they get plenty of ownership. I really do like the NYI/PIT game. It’s got a low total, but the game really matters to both of these teams and the Islanders offense has just been fantastic lately. Nobody is playing NYI2 and I really like them. The same goes for STL2 and ANH2 in that weird 13K price range. I like COL2 in the same vein. Anaheim, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and the Islanders would be the teams I look to get over the field on – and you could definitely play a larger Anaheim stack incorporating some of the lower owned guy who aren’t on the power play.
Defensemen
- Rasmus Andersson (4000) with either Cale Makar (7500), John Carlson (5500), Shea Theodore (3700) or Matthew Schaefer (7000) will be the chalk tonight. Carlson and Schaefer are my favorites here – as they both just play a boatload of minutes and are very productive
- The Islanders have long given up production to defensemen – so I definitely like Erik Karlsson (5700) tonight. My love for the Blues includes Philip Broberg (4400) against the always penalty-happy Sharks.
- I definitely don’t mind going to secondary defensemen on Anaheim or the Islanders tonight. Jackson LaCombe (4500), Jake Trouba (4200), Sam Malinski (3200), and Carson Soucy (2500) all can both move the puck a bit and probably see moderate-to-low ownership tonight.
I don’t hate any of the chalk plays tonight. I just really like Carlson/Schaefer and the cheaper puck movers from both those teams
NHL Goalies
- Scott Wedgewood (8500) is the clear chalk at 28%. Aidan Hill (VGK) is 18%.
- I will always be ok going to Ilya Sorokin (7800) in these big spots. He’s a gamer. I don’t mind going to Joel Hofer (7400) on the cheaper end either. Anthony Stolarz (7200) definitely has ceiling tonight.
- Confirmed: Wedgewood (COL), Wolf (CGY), Sorokin (NYI), Silovs (PIT), Hofer (STL), Askarov (SJ), Husso (ANH), Laniken (VAN)
- Unconfirmed: Hill (VGK), Stolarz (TOR)
Stacks and Theory
- The chalk build is likely to be VGK1/ANH3 or VGK2/ANH1. COL1 won’t be low owned, but there’s not much to play them with tonight.
- This could be an ok slate for a larger Anaheim stack – but you can’t just play the Power Play guys. They will all have a ton of ownership.
- I think there are a lot of strong secondary lines tonight. COL2, SJ2/3, ANH2, and NYI2 all look like strong alternatives to chalkier stuff
- I think the NYI/PIT game is excellent and ripe to go over the total. The Islanders current combinations have been really good offensively and PIT pretty much trades chances at will
- You kind of need to make a decision on Vegas. They carry too much ownership across the roster to stay even with the field. I think you go way over or get under by 1/3 or something.
- St. Louis is definitely an interesting contrarian spot to attack. PIT is as well
- VAN is probably the sicko leverage play. Them or CGY3.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – you can go to Vegas – but I prefer to just get ANH/NYI in some combination. I think they’re the best plays on the slate. Vegas and Colorado are great spots, but I always prefer the mid-priced lines. They just have a better track record.
In larger fields – I think you make a decision on Vegas one way or another and go from there. Anaheim is fine, but I think their ownership will be higher than currently projected. Anything non-PP on ANH will be much lower owned so don’t marry yourself to ANH1/Carlson/Gauthier. Play the other guys. STL, COL2, PIT, and VAN also look like strong plays tonight.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm