Welcome to Thursday’s NHL DFS slate. We have an 8 game slate on tap for tonight. Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 2 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- There is one chalk line tonight – and then it really flattens out ownership-wise. Today that’s NYR1 (Zibanejad/Cuylle/Perreault) at 18%. They are underpriced at 14.4 and facing this Leafs team that is really putrid defensively. The Industry is very high on them projections-wise – but we are definitely bearish on them. A lot of lines project similar to NYR1 for us.
- After the Rangers – My guess is that NSH1 (?/Stamkos/Marchesseault) and NSH2 (Haula/Forsberg/Evangelista) come in at around 15-16% each. They are in an elite power play spot against this Bruins team that the field loves to stack against. It’s not unjustified either – our tools have them as being in the top matchup of the night along with the Rangers. O’Reilly being out probably changes ownership around. We’ll see what it looks like with new lines. I’d guess Haula moves up to 1 and Svechkov centers 2.
- After those two teams – we have a glut of lines between 11-13% ownership that includes TOR1 (Matthews/Nylander/Cowan), BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Krebs), CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Marchment), and PIT1 (Kindel/Hayes/Rakell). Our matchups tool loves this spot for PIT against BUF. I get why – the Sabres are definitely a high variance matchup and the Penguins do generate a bunch of high danger chances. This game should be played at a solid pace and PIT is not great defensively – or in net – so I can absolutely see playing BUF1 as well. Columbus projects well in a really strong power play spot against the always chippy Panthers. It’s just not the greatest even strength matchup. The same goes for TOR1 against Igor and the Fox/Gavrikov pairing. You can go to any of these lines in any format. If I’m picking it’s probably CBJ1 because of the full power play correlation or the always reliable Thompson/Tuch/Dahlin.
- My favorite line on the board tonight is definitely UTA1 (Schmaltz/Keller/Guenther). Every iteration of a Dvorak/Zegras line has been abysmal defensively, the Flyers goaltending continues to be shaky, and UTA1 comes in at 3-4% owned for me right now. This is a high ceiling spot at low ownership and a reasonable price of 18.5. You might even get cheap Nate Schmidt running the power play if Sergachev sits (he’s a GTD). We project them pretty well in the raw and I definitely prefer them to CBJ for just 600 more.
- Our matchups tool loves this spot for FLA – and I get why. Columbus is weak defensively, has shaky goaltending, and is way more penalty-prone when Werenski is out. This is definitely a strong spot for FLA2 (Bennett/Tkachuk/Verhaege) – whose minutes have held steady at around 18-19 so far despite FLA falling out of contention. I think you can definitely go with a power play stack of Bennett/Reinhart/Tkachuk/Ekblad – especially if Werenski is out. Verhaege tends to play 14-15 minutes and replacing him with their best player in Reinhart is absolutely fine. They look to be 4-5% owned and that suits me just fine.
- Considering how much ownership is on both Nashville lines and NYR1 in the 14-15K range – I think pivoting away from them is certainly a strong move here in all formats. Hello Ottawa Senators. They don’t project quite as well, but both OTT1 (Stuetzle/Batherson/Giroux) and OTT2 (Tkachuk/Cozens/Greig) are priced similarly to the chalkier stuff at about 1/3 the ownership. It’s also a pretty strong spot against a Flames team fielding a backup goalie that no longer has veteran stalwart MacKenzie Weegar on the back end. He’s not a great defensive player – but the guys taking his place are likely to be awful. Calgary has been a decent defensive team at even strength, but I expect that to erode as they shed veterans like Weegar. They also continue to take a ton of penalties and the OTT Power Play continues to be excellent. OTT2 or an OTT Power play stack of Cozens/Tkachuk/Batherson/Stuetzle or Sanderson would be my preference, but OTT1 and OTT3 (Pinto/Amadio/Cousins) are also strong plays at their prices. This is my second favorite spot of the night.
- I definitely think going to Boston is viable tonight as well. Nashville’s strength this year has been the PK – but stalwarts Michael McCarron and Cole Smith have been replaced by Erik Haula and Matthew Wood. Thats…..not great. I think BOS1 (Pastrnak/Lindholm/Khusnutdinov) and BOS3 (Geekie/Minten/Eyssimont) both look like strong plays tonight – as does the BOS Power Play as a whole. I’ve been attacking the NSH depth all year and had a lot of success. Shedding Nick Blankenburg and McCarron definitely will not help their porous depth lines. I think BOS3 is the top cheap line of the slate, BOS2 (Mittlestadt/Arvidsson/Zacha) seems fine, and the BOS Power Play should be firmly in the large field conversation.
- We have two popular top lines in this BUF/PIT game – which projects to be a pretty solid game environment. However, I think I prefer to attack this game using the depth lines. PIT2 (Novak/Chinakov/Malkin) have been great all year and the Sabres defense falls off considerably after the first line. I also continue to view BUF2 (McLeod/Zucker/Quinn) and BUF3 (Norris/Doan/Ostlund) as strong value plays on a nightly basis.
- TOR2 (Tavares/Knies/Domi) and LAK2 (Laferriere/Perry/Foegele) also project as solid values and are viable cheap plays.
- Our projections love the Leafs again. They were fine last night and you can certainly go there. I just……ugh. They stink and are mailing the season in. They traded Nick Roy and McMann/Ekman-Larsson/Laughton will be gone too. The ownership will be low in a bad matchup though.
In smaller fields – it’s pretty wide open. I could see playing the Rangers or Predators – but I don’t see them as dramatically better than several other options at lower ownership. I think spending a little more on someone like UTA1, FLA2, BUF, or an OTT Power play stack is a sharp way to go. We have some solid cheap lines in BUF2, BUF3, and BOS3. It’s a good slate to leverage them.
In large fields, it’s wide open. I’m strongly leaning 4/3 here – as there’s just not that one team with a total that separates and it’s an 8 game slate. UTA1, OTT, FLA2, the BOS Power Play, and the BUF Power Play would be my favorites. I think you can go to the Leafs at low ownership too – but I’m not prioritizing them. I’m also not really interested in the double 14-15K line construction tonight. I want to avoid it. Therefore, I’ll probably be under on NYR1 and NSH
NHL Defense
- Roman Josi (7300), Rasmus Dahlin (6000), and Adam Fox (5700) are the chalk guys at 17-20% each. Fox and Dahlin are underpriced. I’m fine being under on Josi. He seems correctly priced – though he’s likely to play a ton.
- Jake Sanderson (5600), Aaron Ekblad (3300), and Matthew Schaefer (5900) come in at 12-14% each. The first two are underpriced for their roles.
- I definitely like Sanderson and Thomas Chabot (4000). Dahlin looks pretty strong – even with the ownership. Ivan Provorov (4400) is running the power play in Werenski’s absence. Damon Severson (3500) and Denton Mateyechuk (3100) also seem like solid plays
- I definitely like Mikhail Sergachev (5400) if he plays. If he’s out – my guess would be Nate Schmidt (2500) takes over power play duties and jumps to the top of my board. Zayne Parekh (2500) is still running the CGY Power Play (whatever that’s worth)
- Charlie McAvoy (5300) and Erik Karlsson (4800) also seem okay
- On the cheap end: Byram (3100), Power (3000), Zub (2800), Gudbrandson (2700), Schmidt (2500), Parekh (2500). I would prefer Schmidt to Parekh.
You’re going to see the field spending at defense – so this is a great night for those of you who love punting defense. I think there’s plenty of decent options at cheaper prices here. Sanderson, Dahlin, Sergachev, Chabot, and Provorov would be my top 5.
NHL Goalies
- I suspect the chalk will be Ilya Sorokin (7400) at 15%. I don’t hate it. I’ve been banging the drum all year, the Kings are depleted, and I see no reason to deliberately avoid it. Linus Ullmark (8100) and Igor Shesterkin probably both get 12%. I could see Igor being the chalk too though.
- Korpisalo (7800), Vasilevsky (8100) and Hellebuyck (7200) are my three favorites beyond Sorokin
- Confirmed: Silovs (PIT), Vladar (PHI), Tarasov (FLA), Greaves (CBJ), Shesterkin (NYR), Hellebuyck (WPG), Korpisalo (BOS), Cooley (CGY), Sorokin (NYI)
- Unconfirmed: Luukkonnen (BUF), Vanacek (UTA), Woll (TOR), Vasilevsky (TB), Saros (NSH), Ullmark (OTT), Kuemper (LA)
Stacks and Theory
- 4/3/1 and 3/3 are probably my go-to structures here
- I’m going to try avoiding the double 14-15K line construction tonight. I think it’s a pretty easy way to just naturally fade the chalk.
- UTA1 looks great as a pivot away from CBJ1. OTT1 and OTT2 look like great ways to pivot off chalky NSH/NYR
- You can certainly go to the Leafs. It makes sense from a game theory standpoint. I’m just….really concerned. They will just punt the game if they get behind by 2+ in the 3rd.
- I like the BUF/PIT game – but I think playing the lower owned depth lines (PIT2, BUF2, BUF3) or the BUF Power Play makes the most sense. I’m not really into playing a full line with Avery Hayes or Peyton Krebs.
- We are likely to see a lot of lineups with two defensemen at 5K+. I think spending down at a defense spot is a solid way to be contrarian tonight
- Playing Boston also makes a ton of sense. This NSH team is getting really depleted – especially on the PK and once you get past the first line. BOS3 looks fantastic. BOS2 also looks good. The BOS PP is also great.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – I think getting away from NYR/NSH makes a ton of sense here. These teams are both pretty flaky. UTA1 looks fantastic. I think playing one BOS line or the other makes a lot of sense too. If you want to go with something that carries ownership I would say the BUF Power Play is the route to go.
In larger fields – It’s wide open. There’s a strong game theory case to play the Leafs here. The Rangers and Igor will both be popular. I just think I prefer Boston – who is in a better spot with the same game theory case. UTA1, FLA2, OTT1/2/PP, and the depth from BUF/PIT are the other standouts to me. I’d also try to stay away from the double mid-tier build and go with a more expensive line tonight. I think the value lines we have a pretty solid.
*Ownership will be updated to reflect this article by roughly 1 ET.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm