Welcome to the Thursday NHL slate. Let’s get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 4:30 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
-Braeden Bowman replaced Brandon Saad on VGK2. He is not in the player pool
- It’s a big slate, so there’s not a ton to discuss ownership-wise. However, there is one clear chalk combination – CBJ2 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Voronkov) and VGK2 (Hertl/Dorofeyev/Bowman). These look like the highest owned lines of the night at 15-17% each. Both of these lines have a history of elite offensive production and are in elite matchups. We saw CBJ2’s playing time go back up to the 18-19 minute range last time out – which was the only thing I really worried about with them. VGK1 (Eichel/Marner/Barbashev) is likely low double digit owned as well. I’m totally fine with them. They are creating an elite amount of offense against this shaky Islanders defense. I think PP stacks of VGK are firmly in play. They draw penalties at a top-10 rate and the Islanders PK is terrible.
- The only other thing I will mention is that it looks like the Flames/Sharks game will have ownership. I know CGY2 is fully correlated on the PP, the Sharks are one of the most penalized teams in Hockey, and their goaltending has a reputation of being bad. However, the Flames are somehow 23rd in high danger chances and 2nd in shots on goal*. They’re just throwing junk shots on net and – while maybe they go in – Askarov has legitimately been good recently. He’s been good enough to where Alex Nedeljkovic (G) left the team due to a “personal matter” (aka losing PT). It’s a big slate, so I’m bearish on this CGY team – despite the prices, our sheets, and solid projections.
- When I watch hockey, there are a few players that just fly off the screen. You would notice them if you watched and knew nothing about Hockey. Macklin Celebrini is one of those guys. SJ1 (Celebrini/Toffoli/Smith) creates some phenomenal chances, but there’s not a ton of quantity there. I like them, and they project well for us. Just be aware that CGY is a pretty good defensive team at even strength.
- Our projections, matchups tool, and line market share tool all say the same thing: COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Lehkonen) is the best play on the board. I tend to agree. Nichushkin is out (yeah, again) so they likely end up being fully correlated on the PP. It’s an elite matchup against a BUF team that is missing their most valuable player in Rasmus Dahlin. They completely crumbled and lost 13 in a row without him last year. BUF commits penalites at a top-10 rate* and allows the 6th most shots on goal on the PK. Their goalies have just been standing on their heads. This will eventually end. I suspect COL1 ends up in the 10-12% owned range. That’s totally fine. They are clearly an elite small field play. Just be aware that they could be the highest owned line of the night in all formats – and 25-30% in small field.
- Our projections also like SJ1, CBJ2, VGK2, WSH1, WSH2, and CBJ1 point/$-wise. Line marketshares pretty much like all the stuff I’ve mentioned already. I’ll get to the last two in a moment
- There are a couple spots I want to highlight here. The first one is this ANH/DET game. DET has loaded up their top line with Dylan Larkin, Alex Debrincat, and Lucas Raymond. They should play a boatload of minutes against this ANH team that – while it has been much better overall – is still pretty penalty-prone and bad defensively. We have them second via expected goals in our line marketshares tool. I really like them as a large field pivot away from COL1. Anaheim has the same top 2 lines – and they’ve been fantastic all year. Detroit doesn’t commit that many penalties, but ANH draws the 5th most and the DET PK – while improved – is still bad. Additionally, Ryan Strome and Mikael Granlund will be returning from injury tonight. That third line of Strome/Granlund/Vatrano is really interesting to me at a sub-10K price tag. I like all 3 top lines for ANH, but a PP stack or ANH3 are my favorite plays here. ANH makes a solid pivot away from chalkier CBJ and SJ
- The second spot I want to highlight is WSH. Both WSH1 (Strome/Ovechkin/Beauvillier) and WSH2 (McMichael/Wilson/Protas) create offense at an elite rate. FLA gets to choose the matchups, so I assume FLA2 (Rodrigues/Reinhart/Verhaege) will go out against Ovechkin and that line has suffocated everyone this year. I would guess that WSH2 gets to match up against FLA1 (Lundell/Marchand/Luostarinen) – who just lets their opponents do whatever they want. I really like WSH2 here as a pivot away from chalky VGK2
- I’m also going back to EDM tonight. Columbus is a joke defensively and McDavid might be sub-5%. Yeah, he’s expensive and they’ve been bad. Whatever. They’re still the Oilers and they can nuke any slate. I like WPG1 as well. Seattle completely sucks and I’ll pick on them mercilessly until the field starts to. I think a Dallas PP stack also makes sense against this penalty-prone MTL team. BOS PP makes sense if you want a contrarian mid-tier stack. Ottawa’s goaltending has been awful, they just lost their best defensemen in Chabot, and BOS seems to be righting the ship on the PP.
Synopsis: CBJ2/VGK2 and COL1 looks like the chalk here. I don’t hate it. I think COL1 is probably the play for smaller fields, but they are expensive and likely super high owned. If I’m playing them, I would probably pair them with someone a little different like WSH2, CBJ1, or a Backlund/Coleman pairing from CGY.
In larger fields, I suspect COL1 gets quite a bit of ownership – assuming Lehkonen is on PP1. I think DET1, DAL PP, and WPG1 are really strong pivots. I like WSH1/2, BOS PP and all 3 ANH lines as well. I don’t mind CGY2 or SJ1 either, but just know what you’re signing up for. You can really play anything here in the right combination. I do think VGK2 and CBJ2 are overowned in large field though.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- The Most Popular one-offs tonight are likely to be Pavel Dorofeyev (5600), Tomas Hertl (5700), and Kirill Marchenko (6300). All 3 of these players are probably 20% owned overall and much higher in small fields. Nathan MacKinnon (9500) probably gets some love here too, but I’m not entirely sure the super expensive one-offs are that popular tonight.
- Dorofeyev is underpriced. I’m fine if you want to one-off him or Hertl. I continue to think playing the non-PP guys from the highest scoring lines as one-offs makes sense. I also think playing one-offs that are much less expensive than their linemates makes sense. Ivan Barbashev (4100), Arturri Lehkonen (5400), Adam Fantilli (5100), and Alex DeBrincat (7300) all make sense in one or both of those veins.
- Columbus is a joke defensively. He burned me last night, but I’m going back to Connor McDavid (9300) at sub-5%. I will not miss it when the Oilers completely nuke somebody at low ownership. Adrian Kempe (6500) also makes sense against this Leafs team in complete free-fall.
- Victor Arvidsson (4000), Josh Doan (3700), Tyler Toffoli (5200), Anders Lee (4400), Brock Nelson (4400), Kent Johnson (3500), and Eeli Tolvanen (3500) all seem pretty good as one-offs
- Cheap-O PP guys: Nate Danielson (2500), Trent Frederic (2500), Max Domi (2800), Jack Quinn (3100), Ryan McLeod (3100)
- Non-PP PD specials are: Maikel Granlund (4000), Fabian Zetterlund (3200), Frank Vatrano (3100), Isak Rosen (3100), and Gavin Brindley (2500)
Synopsis: I think playing the non-PP guys and/or guys who are way cheaper than their linemates as one-offs makes sense. Barbashev, Lehkonen, Fantilli, and DeBrincat make sense here. I believe that playing super expensive one-offs is a mistake on these big slates, but Connor McDavid (9300) at no ownership against Columbus is too good to pass up.
NHL Defense
- Zach Werenski (7900) is the chalk at around 20%. I have outlines my concerns with him and they stay the same. Jackson LaCombe (4800), Cale Makar (8500), and Jake Sanderson (6400) also look to be 12-15%. The only guy whose ownership is worth paying attention to is Werenski.
- There’s never a bad slate to play Jake Chycrun (5700). Evan Bouchard (6700) always has a strong ceiling and is probably lower owned here.
- Jacob Trouba (4400) has some of the best offensive and defensive metrics at the position this season. He looks really strong as a non-PP guy who blocks shots and shoots the puck. Jake Walman (4900), Noah Dobson (4800), Darnell Nurse (4500), and Rasmus Andersson (4400) also fit this description. Tony Deangelo is constantly a darling of the PD model. He projects well as usual at 3400. Ivan Provorov (3600) would be an effective way to differentiate a CBJ stack. He plays a ton, but doesn’t do much besides block shots. Maybe he gets the blocks bonus and falls into an assist though.
- Your cheap PP defensemen are: Bowen Byram (2800), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3500), and the worst defensemen in the NHL – John Klingberg (3700).
- A few other cheap guys to consider are: Olen Zellwegger (3300), Owen Power (3400), and Gustav Forsling (3100)
Synopsis: In smaller fields – I think you play either Werenski or Makar with Byram or Ekman-Larsson. A mid-tier build with Chycrun and Walman is another interesting idea. In large field, play whomever. I continue to be concerned that Werenski’s production will be harmed by playing with Monahan/Johnson instead of CBJ2.
NHL Goalies
- My guess is that McKenzie Blackwood (8500) is the only goalie to get 10% or more in large field. He probably gets double that or more in small field. Connor Hellebuyck (8100) may come in with double digits as well. Logan Thompson (7500) probably sees some ownership as well
- I like Yaroslav Askarov (7100) and Logan Thompson (7500) as guys who likely face a lot of shots.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- CBJ2/VGK2/Werenski seems like the clear chalk. COL1 is likely to be quite popular as well. You probably see COL1 and CBJ1 stacks eat up almost half the ownership in small field GPPs
- Our projections love CBJ1/2, WSH1/2, SJ1, COL1, and VGK2.
- Our Matchups and lineshare tools like COL1 – and COL as a whole – the best by a lot. Line shares also likes DET1. I tend to agree. I suspect they’re in for heavy minutes tonight.
- Beyond the clear chalk, you can kind of choose your own adventure.
- Werenski is the clear chalk at D. I’ve outlined my concerns.
- I think playing non-PP one-offs from more popular lines makes a lot of sense leverage-wise. The same goes for guys with significant price differences from their linemates.
- Askarov makes a lot of sense to me tonight. I like him in goal quite a bit.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – I think CBJ1 or COL1 make a lot of sense. The value is there to play COL1. I think pairing them with CBJ1, Backlund/Coleman, or WSH2 makes a ton of sense. I would fade Werenski, Blackwood, and Hellebuyck if I play CBJ1 though.
In larger fields, choose your favorite plays. My favorites are DET1, WPG1, DAL PP, and EDM PP on the high end. I think ANH1, ANH2, BOS PP, and WSH2 look good in the mid-tier. If you want some lower-owned cheap lines: ANH3, CBJ1, and MTL2 all seem fine. I prefer to play COL as a 5 or 6-man stack, but play any of the even strength lines if you want.
I think playing McDavid and/or Bouchard is – once again – a really sharp think to do. They’re on the back end of a 3-in-4, but so is the Columbus goalie. A Washington or Boston PP stack could also yield dividends in the mid-tier. See you all tomorrow.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm