Welcome back to another day of NHL DFS. it’s a big 12-game slate, so let’s dive right in.
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 2 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
*When I refer to NHL ownership – those numbers will be reflected in the run I push through after this article
- It’s a huge NHL slate, so you can play anybody you want. However, It’s worth discussing the CBJ/TOR game from an ownership standpoint. TOR1 (Tavares/Nylander/Jarnkrok), TOR PP (Tavares/Nylander/Cowan) and CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Voronkov) will all likely see 15% ownership. TOR2 (Domi/McMann/Cowan) likely comes in around 11% as – by far – the chalkiest cheap line of the slate. Toronto onslaughts will also be heavily owned. This game will also feature Zach Werenski at 20% ownership and Morgan Reilly at 10-12% ownership. That is a lot of ownership on one game when there are 11 other ones to play. It’s a strong spot featuring two teams that are bad at defense, but I think this is a strong spot to be under the field on in large field contests.
- The most popular pairing with TOR1 or CBJ1 will likely be NYI2 (Barzal/Drouin/Lee) or WSH1 (Ovechkin/Strome/Beauvillier). They will be about 6-8% owned each. I like both of these lines, but prefer WSH1. Let people worry about Ovechkin and the B2B.
- Our projections love everything CBJ, WSH1, all 3 top PHI lines, and everything STL. STL1 (Thomas/Holloway/Snuggerud) has some extremely strong projections. FWIW our matchups tool does not like the STL/PHI game at all. I don’t blame it. I am not enthusiastic about playing the game on the slate with the slowest pace and lowest total.
- Our matchups model likes DET, LAK, and DAL quite a bit. I completely agree. I know playing DET1 did not work out the other day – but I will go right back to them. It’s a phenomenal spot against an Islanders team that can’t kill off penalties (31st in xGoals allowed on the PK) and allows the second most high danger chances/game in the NHL. DET1 is at the top of my board once again.
- This is also an elite spot for the Kings against a Sharks team that also really struggles to kill off penalties (25th). LAK1 (Byfield/Fiala/Kempe) is probably the best line they can run out there, it’s fully correlated on the PP, and you can expect heavy minutes from them. I have my concerns with them though. The Kings have really struggled to create offense this year, They don’t draw many penalties (23rd) and their PP is dead last in expected goals for. They have also really struggled to generate offense overall this year due to a lack of puck movers on the blue line and a banged-up, aging Kopitar. I like LAK1, but I don’t hate LAK2 (Kopitar/Kuzmenko/Moore) or LAK3 (Danault/Foegele/Laferriere) either. I also suspect that San Jose tries to hide their top line (Celebrini/Smith/Kurashev) from the Kings top line and pair as the game wears on. That line is awful defensively, but it does create offense – and also opportunities for the lines facing them. Therefore, I think I prefer the depth lines of the Kings and SJ1 is my favorite play in this game. The Kings depth defensemen are awful, they commit their fair share of penalties, and the Sharks (F*cking Finally) kicked John “The Gargoyle) klingberg off the Power Play.
- Dallas is also in an elite spot against a VAN team that is really struggling defensively, committing too many penalties, and can’t kill them off. DAL2 (Hintz/Robertson/Seguin) and DAL1 (Johnston/Rantanen/Benn) are both in play, but I prefer some kind of PP stack. This game projects to be pretty slow-paced, so you likely need some power plays and/or solid efficency to get there. I’m also worried that the field over-reacts to FLA blowing VAN out of the water the other night and this is the spot that ends up 10% owned rather than LAK1. You can play whatever combination of DAL guys you want. My preference is either DAL2 or Hintz/Robertson/Johnston/Heiskanen. I suspect the ownership on the individual lines is higher than the industry thinks though.
- If you want to go really low owned, I think this VGK/UTA game is pretty interesting. It’s going to be played at a high pace with scuffling defenses and goalies on both sides
- Obligatory mention – play COL1 if you want to. Not sure if I want to spend on a line where you basically can’t play the team’s second best player with it.
- The value lines (sub-11K) I like best tonight are ANH3, LAK3, COL2, CBJ3, and SJ3. You could also play Crouse/Peterka, Copp/Van Reimsdyk, Protas/Wilson, or DeBrusk/O’Connor among other two-mans
Synopsis: In small fields, if you want to play the Leafs – fine. I don’t think you need to though. There’s a ton of good lines to play tonight. Limiting yourself to the one game where all the ownership is concentrating – on such a large slate – seems like an opportunity wasted. Play the chalk if you want, but I think DET1, LAK1, and DAL2 all look like strong plays.
In larger fields, choose your own adventure tonight. However, I think getting under the field on this entire CBJ/TOR game is a reasonable idea. I really like DET1 coming off a perceived lemon when they had a bunch of steam. I think SJ1 and all 3 top Kings lines are firmly in play. I also think the OTT PP, NYI1/2 the WSH/MTL game, and VGK/UTA are pretty interesting.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- I suspect the most popular one-offs tonight will be John Tavares (7500), William Nylander (8200), Adam Fantilli (5500), Kirill Marchenko (6600), and Easton Cowen (3300). See the theme here?
- My favorite one-offs of the night are Leon Draisaitl (8600), Alex DeBrincat (7400), Macklin Celebrini (7300), Adrian Kempe (6500), Arturri Lehkonen (5800), Timo Meier (5600), and Kyle Palmieri (4500).
- Cheap PP guys: Jarnkrok (2500), Kuzmenko (3000), Wennberg (3100), Tolvanen (3200), Cowan (3300), Dvorsky (3300)
- #TeamNonPP: Sam Bennett (4200), Anders Lee (3900), Bobby McMann (3500), Frank Vatrano (3400), Warren Foegele (3100), Fabian Zetterlund (2900), Emil Heineman (2900), Anthony Beauvillier (2800), Alex Killorn (2800), Ryan Strome (2600), Drew O’Connor (2600), Brendan Gallagher (2500), Jake Evans (2500)
Synopsis: I think playing Bobby McMann as a one-off makes a lot of sense and is pretty sharp. He’ll be lower owned than those on the PP. Columbus doesn’t take many penalties and the Leafs are 23rd in penalties drawn. Please don’t play somebody from the Leafs Power Play as a one-off unless it’s Jarnkrok – and that’s only because he’s free. Just avoid the super chalky CBJ/TOR game and you’re fine.
NHL Defense
- Zach Werenski (7700), Darren Raddysh (3800), and Morgan Reilly (4600) will be the three highest owned defensemen. 22% on Werenski, 18% Raddysh, 14% Reilly. Werenski is always a solid play regardless of ownership.
- Cale Maker (8500) is priced to the moon. That should lower the ownership. He’s a strong spend. So is Quinn Hughes (7000) running (somehow) an elite NHL Power Play. They’re both strong alternatives to Werenski.
- The mid-tier is very strong tonight. I like Jake Sanderson (6400), Jake Chycrun (5700), Matthew Schaefer (5200), John Carlson (5100), Brandon Montour (5000), and Jackson LaCombe (4900). They’re all solid Power play guys
- I like Moritz Seider (5400) and Miro Heiskanen (6000) paired with their respective stacks
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a reasonable way to differentiate a Leafs stack – either by himself or paired with Reilly. Same goes with playing both Carlson and Chycrun in a WSH PP stack
- Dmitry Orlov (3200) and Axel Sandin-Pelikka (2900) are my top cheap PP guys.
- #TeamNonPP: Noah Dobson (5100), Mike Matheson (4600), Jake Trouba (4400), Brandt Clarke (4100), Olen Zellwegger (3500), Simon Edvinsson (3400), Aaron Ekblad (3200), Matt Roy (3000), Adam Larsson (3000), Ryan Pulock (3000), Gus Forsling (2900), Esa Lindell (2900), Marcus Petterson (2600), Ian Moore (2500), Alex Petrovic (2500).
Synopsis: In smaller fields – I think you play Dahlin – play the chalk if you want. I think Schaefer, Dobson, LaCombe, Orlov, and Sandin-Pelikka are also viable. In large field, just correlate. You can always differentiate by playing anyone who isn’t on the PP. Mo Seider (5600), Noah Dobson (5100), Mike Matheson (4600), Simon Edvinsson (3400), Matt Roy (3000), and Ryan Pulock are my non-PP heroes of the night
NHL Goalies
- I suspect that Andrei Vasilevsky (7600), Spencer Knight (7800), and Yaroslav Askarov (7100) will be the goalies that come in with low double digit ownership.
- Mrazek, Greaves, Sorokin, Montembeault, and Bobrovsky all seem fine. I have no conviction though.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- CBJ1, TOR1, and TOR2 are the chalk lines tonight. Werenski, Raddysh, and Reilly are the chalk defensemen
- It’s a choose your favorite plays kind of slate outside of the CBJ/TOR game that’s super chalky.
- The matchups tool CBJ, DET, DAL, LAK, and COL among others.
- I think the SJ/LAK and NYI/DET games are reasonable pivots away from the chalkier CBJ/TOR game.
- Our lineshares model loves COL1. It likes DET1, DAL2, TB1, and LAK1 – but there’s a significant gap.
- COL1 is going to be pretty low owned (like 5-6%). We’ll see if I get there. I might just play Lehkonen/Makar or MacKinnon/Makar.
- There’s going to be a lot of ownership on this CBJ/TOR game. The first decision in large field is where you want to be on it. I probably want to be under the field. I like other spots and it’s a big slate.
- I really like Dallas, but I am worried that they end up the 3rd team in double digits behind CBJ/TOR. I suspect the field will love the PP matchup and make that the groupthink play. The pace of that game is a concern. I’ll issue a final opinion later in the day.
- my favorite plays are DET1, NYI PP, LAK1, and SJ1. Dallas also looks great, but I have questions about the ownership.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – TOR1 or CBJ1 are the chalk. WSH1 is probably the secondary stack. Them or NYI2 seem fine. I think DAL2, MTL1, and LAK1 should be in consideration though. You can play the chalk defensemen if you want – but I think going double mid-tier with Carlson/Chycrun or Schaefer/Sanderson is also viable.
In larger fields, you’ll have to decide on the CBJ/TOR game. Overall, I’m going to be way under on that one. I kinda like CBJ3, Damon Severson, and Lorenz/Jarnkrok 2-mans as contrarian ways to access that game though. DET1, LAK1, SJ1, DAL1/2/PP, and NYI PP are all interesting large field GPP plays. There’s – once again – lots of cheaper lines that project really well.
In conclusion, it’s NHL DFS. The variance is massive – especially on these huge slates. Embrace it. That’s the path to first in most events.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm