Welcome back to another day of NHL DFS. We have a pretty straight forward 4-gamer tonight. Let’s get to it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 3:30 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
*When I refer to NHL ownership – those numbers will be reflected in the run I push through after this article
- There are several lines with ownership in the low-to-mid 20s and one at 28-30%. BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Doan), MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Johansson), and PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Dewar) are all in the low 20s ownership-wise. LAK1 (Byfield/Kempe/Fiala) will be the highest owned line of the night at around 30% in large field and 35% in small field – due to the full PP correlation. The chalk pairing will be some kind of BUF PP1 stack with Thompson/Dahlin/Rosen, Quinn, and/or Zucker (depending who is on the PP). It’s interesting that the field likely puts a lot of emphasis on the BUF and LAK Power Plays – due to the fact that their opponents commit plenty of penalties – because these are the 30th and 32nd ranked Power Plays by expected goals. Both Chicago and Boston allow plenty of high danger chances overall. Just don’t over-fixate on this bad Buffalo Power Play. Play their best line – Thompson/Tuch/Doan – which has been excellent (4.15 xGoals/60).
- Our projections strongly prefer MIN1 (Yurov/Kaprizov/Zuccarello) to BUF1. The PIT goalies have been standing on their heads this year, but they do not play much defense in front of them. I get it. They also really like CAR2, LA2, and LA3. CAR2 has some ownership (around 10%) and they probably avoid the top line matchup. They have to deal with the Samberg/Pionk pairing – which has been excellent for an extended period of time – but I still like the spot and projection for them.
- Our matchups tool likes CAR, LAK, PIT, and BUF.
- If I had to choose from the popular lines, I’d take PIT1. I think they probably come in the lowest owned of the bunch because they’re facing a brand-name goalie in Gustavsson. I also simply trust Crosby/Rust. My favorite spots of the night are definitely in this CAR/WPG game though. It’s likely to play at the fastest pace and it has the two underowned lines of the night – CAR1 and WPG1. WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi) is my favorite line of the night and we have plenty of value lines to fit them. They will have some ownership. Just don’t pair them with cheap guys from the BUF PP. Carolina has been pretty dreadful defensively and their goaltending has been pretty awful regardless of who is in net. I don’t mind going with CAR1 (Aho/Svechnikov/Jarvis) or CAR PP1 at what looks like super-low ownership either. Hellebuyck is out 4-6 weeks and the Jets have been taking plenty of penalties. The WPG penalty kill has been average, but they also no longer have the best goalie in the world behind them.
- A Chicago Power Play stack is also a pretty sharp play here. Those guys have been very good, BUF commits plenty of penalties*, their PK is due regression*, and their goaltending stinks. CHI1 – also fully correlated on the PP BTW.
- There’s plenty of cheap lines and two-mans I like tonight outside of the chalk. Our model loves BOS2 (Zacha/Blumel/Steeves), I agree, and they project for zero ownership. You can also just play Zacha/Blumel/Lindholm as a cheap 3-man PP combo. I think BOS3 (Minten/Jeannot/Kastelic) looks good. Two-mans of either Minten/Kastelic or Kuraly/Eyssimont also seem pretty solid.
- Interesting to note: The Second BUF Power Play gets about 40% of the run. That’s quite a bit. I think a Tuch/Doan/Byram or McLeod/Zucker/Power 3-man of the second PP makes a lot of sense.
Synopsis: In small fields, I think the Kings are fine. Just be aware their Power play sucks. However, I think people will simply overplay the cheap BUF Power Play guys like Rosen, Quinn, and Zucker. They have only been getting 60% of the run and haven’t been good either. Seems like a situation similar to Tuesday where Thompson carries monster ownership, Tuch/Doan carry less than the industry thinks, and Quinn/Rosen/Ostlund get way more than they think. I think a Doan/Tuch/Byram/Dahlin stack is a sneaky way to go. We also have plenty of value lines tonight. You don’t have to just jam LAK1/BUF PP1 like everyone will. I think CAR2 and CHI1 are clearly in play as well
In larger fields, WPG1 and CAR1 are clearly under-owned in the best game environment of the night. I think CAR2, WPG2, and WPG3 are also in play. A Chicago Power Play stack seems like a really strong move here, but I suspect the ownership will be higher than the industry thinks due to their full Power Play correlation.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- I suspect the most popular one-offs tonight will be Tage Thompson (8500), Joel Eriksson Ek (6100) and Isak Rosen (3600). There’s going to be a lot of 4/3/1 with two mid-priced lines tonight though. I don’t think there will be a ton of skater one-offs
- My favorite one-offs of the night are Connor Bedard (8300), Kyle Connor (8300), Alex Tuch (5700), Morgan Geekie (5400), Andrei Svechnikov (5400), Mats Zuccarello (5100), Tyler Bertuzzi (4900), Warren Foegele (3300) and Mike Eyssimont (2600). I think a Connor, Bedard, or Svechnokov one-off is pretty sharp. Geekie, Svechnokiv, and Bertuzzi are the net front guys on the PP for their respective teams.
- Cheap PP guys: Noah Ostlund (2800), Ryan Greene (2800), Matej Blumel (2800), Andrei Kuzmenko (3300), Isak Rosen (3600)
- #TeamNonPP: Ryan Donato (4400), Jackson Blake (3900), Anthony Mantha (3500), Taylor Hall (3400), Warren Foegele (3300), Nino Niederreiter (3200), Alex Iafallo (2800), Mark Kastelic (2800), Mike Eyssimont (2600)
Synopsis: Kyle Connor or Connor Bedard seem like pretty sharp one-offs tonight. I also like any of the guys on net front mentioned above. Blake, Hall, Foegele, Niederreiter, and Eyssimont are my favorite one-offs. The cheap PP guys from BUF will be popular as one-offs and 2-mans. Just be aware of the limited playing time they get on the PP.
NHL Defense
- Rasmus Dahlin (6600) is the clear chalk. He might get to 40% in large field and 45% in small field. It’s fine to eat the ownership in small field. That’s getting a bit excessive in large field for my taste, but to each their own. The Industry seem to think that Brandt Clarke (4000) will be the chalk at 25% with Erik Karlsson around 20%. I suspect the field goes to a guy like Hampus Lindholm (3800) or Zeev Buium as cheap PP guys instead. Clarke, Buium, and Lindholm all being around 10-12% makes more sense to me. I would not go anywhere near Clarke as chalk. That guy can’t stay out of the penalty box and/or the coach’s dog house.
- It’s not a deep pool tonight, but I do like Shayne Gostisbehere (4900). I think Josh Morrissey (6200) is a reasonable pivot away from Dahlin as well.
- Brock Faber (4300), Neil Pionk (4200), Sean Walker (3900), Artyom “The Left Shoe” “Levshunov (3700), Owen Power (3600), Jonas Brodin (3500), Dylan Samberg (3500), and Bowen Byram (3300) are all strong mid-tier plays. They are also #teamNonPP except for “The Left Shoe” Levshunov
- Hampus Lindholm (3800) and Zeev Buium (3200) are your cheap PP guys
Synopsis: In smaller fields – I think you play Dahlin – but I prefer to play Lindholm. He has a better floor than Clarke and is the distributor on a Power Play that is actually good. I don’t hate just going Dahlin/Byram in a BUF stack for any field size either. In large field, I definitely like Morrissey and Gostisbehere. Faber, Walker, Pionk, and Byram are also guys who shoot a bit. They make strong one-offs.
NHL Goalies
- The industry has Darcy Kuemper (8200) at 25%-ish and Ukka-Pekka Luukkonnen (8000) at 20%. I refuse to trust somebody with that many consonants in their last name. No wonder Luukkonnen sucks. Kuemper is fine in small fields, but I prefer Comrie (7500). He just has a better defense in front of him and likely a higher shot volume.
- I suspect that Swayman (7200) and Soderblom (7400) suck up low-to-mid double digits as cheap guys. Lots of Swayman or Kings/Soderblom or BUF lineups tonight.
- Overall, I suspect it ends up pretty flat. I do like Arturs Silovs (7800) or Filip Gustavsson (7900), but I have no conviction here.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- I suspect the chalk is some kind of BUF PP/LAK PP combination with Dahlin and another cheap Power Play defensemen. I’m not buying Clarke as chalk.
- I think a BUF PP2 or Dahlin/Byram combination is a sharp way to stack BUF
- The matchups tool likes CAR, LAK, BUF, and PIT.
- I think CHI PP is a strong pivot away from BUF. They are also fully correlated on the PP and BUF’s goaltending is much worse.
- CAR1 and WPG1 are by far my favorite plays on the slate. You can go to the depth lines as well, but those are the two most underowned plays of the slate.
- The field seems to want to jam in the 30th and 32nd ranked power plays – one of them that only plays 60% of the time. This seems…..questionable.
- Dahlin probably get close to 40% owned in large field. I think Josh Morrissey is a very strong pivot. I’m not playing Brandt Clarke at high ownership. I’d much rather play Brock Faber or Sean Walker.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – LAK1 seems fine. I’m much more tepid on these BUF PP stacks with Thompson/Quinn/Rosen, Thompson/Rosen Ostlund, etc. They just don’t get a dominant share of the power play time. I think CHI1 or MIN2 make sense as pivots. Tuch/Doan/Byram/Dahlin also makes a ton of sense if you want to play BUF/LAK1.
In large fields, I think attacking this CAR/WPG game makes sense. CAR1 and WPG1 are the most underowned lines on the slate. There’s solid value with the Boston and Los Angeles depth lines and a wealth of two-mans I mentioned above. I don’t mind a CHI PP either – but I suspect it’s adequately-to-over owned. If you want to play BUF – I think Tuch/Doan/Dahlin/Byram makes a ton of sense here as well.
In conclusion, I think the field is hitching their wagon to some power plays that are pretty bad. This is a great NHL slate to take advantage of the field’s obsession with power play correlation and hope they fall flat on their faces. It’s easy enough to play good lines and good Power Plays in solid spots at lower ownership. I will just be playing solid fundamental DFS and doing that.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm