Welcome back to another day of NHL DFS. I hope everybody had a great holiday. We have another monster slate today. Let’s get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 12 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
*When I refer to NHL ownership – those numbers will be reflected in the run I push through after this article
*I had to eliminate the one-off section due to time constraints today.
- So it’s a huge slate, but we’re going to have some pretty concentrated ownership on SJ1 (Celebrini/Eklund/Smith) at around 13-15% with another 8-10% on SJ PP (Celebrini/Eklund/Smith). The chalk pairing with both of these will be CBJ1 (Fantilli/Voronkov/Johnson). The Wennberg version will have Werenski with CBJ1 and the standard SJ1 will have Orlov. CBJ1 is clearly underpriced against a decidedly mid Pittsburgh team. The Sharks are in a strong spot against this VAN team that has major goaltending issues and commits plenty of penalties. However, so do the Sharks. Our projections are more bearish on both spots than the industry – who has these as two of the best projected plays on the board. I don’t mind either spot, but it’s a big slate. There are definitely contrarian spots I like as well.
- The secondary chalk here is likely to be LAK1 (Byfield/Fiala/Kempe) and ANH1 (Carlsson/Gauthier/Sennecke) at 10-12% each. This is a pretty volatile spot. The Kings just don’t generate offense and have a terrible power play. They could easily get there on volume of chances alone though. The Industry doesn’t believe ANH1 is that owned, but I suspect that the public just likes them too much and has little respect for the Kings.
- The Industry has NYI2 (Barzal/Lee/Drouin) and NSH2 (Haula/Marchesseauly/Forsberg) accruing some secondary ownership around 8% each. I don’t think NSH gets that high – and they’re really underpriced. The public thinks NSH stinks (rightfully so). However, I do not mind a NSH PP stack or even just Forsberg/Josi – against this penalty-happy Chicago squad. A McCarron/Bunting/Blankenburg 3-man also seems firmly in play. Nashville’s prices make them pretty apealing. I don’t mind this spot for the Islanders, but it’s not my favorite. PHI is just a slow-paced, low shot-volume matchup.
- Our matchups tool likes CAR, WSH, and LAK. It’s much more luke-warm on SJ and CBJ.
- Our projections are particularly high on WSH1, TOR2, WSH2, all 3 Vegas lines, and all 3 Nashville lines (ugh)
- They are definitely high on Power Play stacks today. TOR, VGK, WSH, and NSH Power Plays all project for strong value and raw projection. I am definitely high on the Vegas power play against this Montreal team with major PK and Goaltending issues. The Vegas Power Play is much more effective with Mark Stone in the lineup. I definitely like WSH facing this porous Leafs team at their reasonable prices. A WSH stack with multiple defensemen – such as Wilson/Protas/Chycrun/Roy – has a lot of appeal for me. You could also go Ovechkin/Strome/Chycrun/Carlson. Toronto will be very low owned here going against public darling – goaltender Logan Thompson. I despise the Leafs, but they could definitely break the slate here.
- I really like NJ1 (Hischier/Bratt/Meier) or just Hischier/Meier/Hamilton on this slate. This New Jersey line has been generating a ton of offense, the Buffalo defense is suspect, their PK is bad, and the NJ PP has been excellent. I think you can also go to a Gritsyuk/Mercer/L. Hughes stack on the cheaper end as well. This is an excellent spot for New Jersey. I do not mind BUF2 (McLeod/Zucker/Quinn) either. These McLeod/Zucker lines have generated a ton of offense all year.
- My other favorite spot of the night is – once again – both VAN1 (Petterson/Kane/DeBrusk) and especially the Vancouver power play. It’s hard to overstate how good the VAN PP has been this year. They are now 10% better than any other power play in the NHL by expected goals. They don’t come with the silly prices they did the other day, but this is a great spot against a super chalky, penalty-happy Sharks team that’s really struggled on the PK and just got completely embarrassed by another great PP in Colorado. I love this spot. 4-mans with Quinn Hughes, 4-mans with both of Hughes/Hronek, or 5-mans with Hughes, Kane, and 3 PP forwards all look great.
- STL1 (Thomas/Buchnevich/Kyrou) is also in a strong spot with solid Industry projections and a cheap price. They look good tonight. I don’t hate a Steuzle/Batherson/Sanderson stack the other way either. CHI1 (Bedard/Bertuzzi/Burakovsky) is also in a strong spot against this weak Nashville defense and suspect goaltending.
- There are some solid cheap lines tonight. OTT3 (Pinto/Giroux/Amadio), BUF2 (McLeod/Zucker/Quinn), PHI2 (Cates/Foerster/Konecny), and CHI2 (Nazar/Teravainen/Moore) all look pretty strong.
Synopsis: In small fields, I’d probably fade San Jose and play CBJ1 with someone else – like LAK1 or WSH1. If you want to play SJ1 the logical way to go is probably a 5-man stack of some sort. San Jose and Los Angeles just don’t generate a ton of offense though.
In larger fields, I don’t love any of the chalk lines tonight. Columbus is probably the strongest chalk, but I’m not enamored with it. Jarry has been pretty good this year. I definitely like spending a bit more and getting to NJ1, TOR2, or a Vegas PP stack. STL1, WSH1, WSH2, and CHI1 are also pretty interesting. VAN1 and the Vancouver Power Play are my top plays though. It’s a great spot despite the slow pace of this game. I’m not going to go crazy on it, but I like it quite a bit.
NHL Defense
- Zach Werenski (8100) is the chalk at about 25% owned. Quinn Hughes (7400) and Jake Sanderson (5900) are the other popular spends at 12-15% each. Shayne Gostisbehere (4900, Shea Theodore (4500), and Jackson LaCombe (4700) are the popular mid-tier guys at 10-12% each. I’d guess Dmitry Orlov (3100) is 8-10% running the SJ PP as well.
- Quinn Hughes (7000) is my favorite defensemen on the slate. He’s a great alternative to these other expensive guys. However, Werenski projects by far the best Industry-wide.
- In the mid-tier I like Roman Josi (6500), Jacob Chycrun (6300), Erik Karlsson (6100), John Carlson (5400), Noah Dobson (4900), Mike Matheson (4000), and Rasmus Andersson (4400).
- on the cheap end I like Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3800), Kris LeTang (3700), Matt Roy (3300), Filip Hronek (3300), Tony Deangelo (3200), Aaron Ekblad (3200), Tyler Myers (3000), and Gustav Forsling (2900).
- Your cheap PP guys are Cam York (3200), Cam Fowler (3200), and Dmitry Orlov (3100)
Synopsis: In smaller fields – just play Werenski. If you’re having trouble fitting him I think York, Fowler, Orlov, and Forsling are all fine. In large field, I think you can go either way on Werenski. I’m inclined to be at the field because I don’t want him to kill me. I do think paying up for two defensemen is a wise move today. The double Washington or Vancouver defense lineups have a lot of appeal to me.
NHL Goalies
- I don’t expect any overwhelming chalk today. My guess is Sergei Bobrovsky (8400), Jet Greaves (7600), and Jordan Binnington (7200) are all around 10%. I say that with no conviction though
- I’ve got no real lean here per usual. Bobrovsky seems fine since the cheap goalies seem to be dominating ownership this year. I like Tristan Jarry (7600) and Logan Thompson (8100) as well.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- SJ1, CBJ1, and LAK1 are the highest owned stuff here. I suspect San Jose is the highest, but Columbus is right behind them. ANH1 is likely to be pretty popular as well.
- This is once again a strong spot for the VAN PP. VAN1 with Hughes is fine too. Boeser/Garland/Myers and Sherwood/O’Connor/M. Pettersson are cheaper ways to get access to them. I like NJ1 quite a bit as well. CHI1, STL1, FLA3, and the Florida Power Play also stand out to me.
- Our projections like the chalk, but they also love WSH1 and the Vegas Power Play as strong alternatives. This is a great spot for the Vegas Power Play. I don’t even think you necessarily need $9200 Jack Eichel either.
- Zach Werenski is chalk, but I’m totally fine with it in all fields.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – you can play San Jose, but I don’t think you have to. It’s a super volatile spot and there’s plenty of other plays that project well. LAK1, WSH1, CBJ1, and Werenski are the pieces I would build around.
In large fields, Celebrini and Werenski are the two pieces you will need to decide on. I’m probably going to just pass on super chalky Alex Wennberg and most of San Jose. I think NJ1, STL1, WSH1, Chycrun, Josi, Hughes, the Vancouver Power Play, and the Vegas power play look like my building blocks tonight. CHI1, and Nashville look like interesting pieces as well.
In conclusion, I think the field is hitching their wagon to another super volatile stack in San Jose. This game could certainly go the other way. I never like hitching my wagon to the stacks that are strongly based on goaltending being bad. That seems like a pretty mercurial thing to view as a near certainty.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm