Welcome to our first big NHL slate of the week! Let’s get to it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 12 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL Lines
- There’s a strong industry consensus around MIN as the chalk team today. MIN1 (Kaprizov/Rossi/Johansson) and MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Tarasenko) are both moderately priced, well-projected around the industry, and facing a Nashville team on a B2B coming off an OT game. This lines up as a spot the public will absolutely love. It’s also the only spot where I think ownership is really worth discussing. 20% ownership for MIN1 is just a lot on such a big slate – especially when the team in question has been so piss poor at even strength for 3 years now. MIN2 is probably lower owned, but still around 15%.
- You’re going to see a lot of other lines around 10-12% ownership – including BOS1 (Pastrnak/Geekie/Khusnutdinov), VGK2 (Hertl/Dorofeyev/Marner), FLA1 (Reinhart/Verhaege/Rodrigues), and FLA2 (Lundell/Luostarainen/Marchand), and DAL1 (Johnston/Robertson/Rantanen).
- PD Projections like MIN1, MIN2, VGK2, NSH1 (O’Reilly/Forsberg/Evangelista), and TB1 (Point/Kucherov/Hagel) as the best primary line values by point/$. We like NSH2 (Haula/Marchesseault/Stamkos), and NYI3 (Lee/Pageau/Holmstrom) as the best cheaper value lines.
- Tampa Bay has recently changed their style of play. They’re operating at a much slower pace and collapsing around the net to suppress shots. I mention this because it likely leads to lower scoring games – and they will certainly continue to do this against Colorado.
- I hate to say it – but I like the Predators tonight again. I still don’t really care about Back-to-Backs yet, Gustavsson looks like chalk, and this Minnesota Penalty Kill has been awful. I’m fine with either NSH line, but a PP stack of some sort is my preference.
- VGK2 will have ownership, but I don’t really care. I like them a lot against this Detroit team. I’m just a sucker for this line. They’re really good and DET’s defense gets really suspect after the first line. If you’re really worried about ownership, you can attach one of the defensemen not named Theodore. VGK3 (Karlsson/Smith/Saad) is also pretty interesting as a cheap line. They’re fully correlated as the secondary PP line and these DET depth lines are abysmal.
- My favorite team on the slate is the New York Islanders. Boston leads the league in penalties, shots on goal allowed/60, and has been dreadful at controlling rebounds around the net. I absolutely love this spot for NYI1 (Horvat/Barzal/Heineman) and NYI3 (Lee/Pageau/Holmstrom). The Islanders PP hasn’t been good, but they should get enough opportunities here.
- Some outlets are projecting LAK1 (Kempe/Byfield/Fiala) to have some ownership, but I just don’t believe that a team against Hellebuyck will be owned on an 11 game slate. I really like that line as well. Winnipeg has really struggled to control the puck in front of the net without Dylan Samberg. Hellebuyck is the best goalie in the world, but this will eventually come around and bite them. If you don’t want to pay for LAK1, I think LAK3 (Danault/Moore/Armia) looks like a strong play at a cheap price. These WPG depth lines have been particularly leaky this year and Danault/Moore have a solid long-term history together.
- Three other lines I like are MTL1 (Suzuki/Slafkovsky/Caufield), UTA2 (Cooley/Guenther/Peterka) and CAR3 (Staal/Martinook/Jarvis). I’m just not a believer in the Flyers – and certainly not Dan Vladar. This particular version of CAR3 has been an elite line by expected goals/60 over multiple years. The Rangers depth is also atrocious. I’m not investing a ton in these lines, but they’re low owned. UTA2 is just a really good line at lower ownership against a decidedly mid Buffalo team due negative regression.
Synopsis: Minnesota is the clear chalk here. What you decide to so with them dictates how you handle the slate. In large field play – I’m reticent to invest in a chalk team on an 11 game slate that has sucked at even strength for 3 years running. If you want to play them in the $333 or whatever that’s fine. There’s a glut of lines with moderate ownership. VGK2 is probably my favorite and FLA probably comes in with the most ownership. People still want to pick on Anaheim despite it not working so far.
In large field play, I think it makes sense to play the Nashville PP. It’s the natural leverage against chalk MIN. However, every tool we have loves NYI1 and VGK2. I’m completely on board – especially considering they likely get the second line matchup – which is a big drop off in talent for BOS. LAK1, UTA2, MTL1, CAR3, NYI3, and LAK3 are a few of my other favorites.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- The most popular one-offs here will almost certainly be from Minnesota. Kirill Kaprizov (8600) will be the slate’s highest owned player. He probably comes with mid-20s ownership in large field and 32-25% in smaller fields. James and I both continue to believe that paying for skaters in the 8K range is just unnecessary. I’ll be testing this theory tonight.
- Filip Forsberg (6900) looks like an elite one-off to me – and he projects like it for us too. Tomas Hertl (5500), Adrian Kempe (6700), Ryan O’Reilly (5500), Alex DeBrincat (6800), and Brayden Point (6500) are all net front guys who are priced in the mid-tier. Josh Doan (3700), Matvei Michkov (4700), and Zack Bolduc (3100) are there as cheaper net front guys.
- PD likes Anders Lee (4800), Mitch Marner (6000), Brandon Hagel (5400), Jonathan Marchesseault (5000), JJ Peterka (4200), and Sam Bennett (4700) as one-offs
- If you want to play someone contrarian from MIN, I’m always a fan of Ryan Hartman (4100).
- I see little reason to be punting with random PP guys when we have guys in the 4Ks projecting for 11 points. However, if you want somebody cheap on the PP there’s Isak Rosen (2500), Corey Perry (2800), Eric Haula (2800), and Luke Evangelista (3400).
Synopsis: I continue to believe investing in these super expensive skaters on large slates is a mistake being made by the field. They do not have a significantly higher ceiling than guys priced cheaper than them. You wouldn’t pay 8K for Aaron Judge right?
Filip Forsberg, Brayden Point, and Adrian Kempe are probably my favorite one-offs. However, there’s a glut of guys to choose from above.
NHL Defense
- Jared Spurgeon (3800) is the chalk. He’s probably 20% in large field and 25-30% in smaller fields. He runs the PP for MIN, but he’s also a gargoyle on skates. He project well Industry-wide, but he looks washed to me. I’d imagine Seth Jones (4900), Shea Theodore (5300), and Jackson LaCombe (5100) are the guys you’ll see him paired with. They probably all come in 12-15%-ish. LaCombe and Theodore seem like strong plays to me.
- Cam York (4000) and Brady Skjei (4000) are also there as cheap PP guys, but they have lousy projections.
- Brock Faber (4000) plays a bunch and is an option for those of you eating the MIN chalk.
- I’m going to keep banging the drum for Matthew Schaefer (5500). He’s still too cheap considering his role and how much he shoots. He should be even better now that he gets to play with Barzal instead of Drouin. Charlie McAvoy (4900) and Victor Hedman (6000) also seem fine as somewhat lower owned PP guys.
- There are so many well-projected defensemen who don’t get PP time and will carry little ownership. Noah Dobson (4800), Mike Matheson (4400), Jacob Trouba (4700), and Jake Walman (5200) are the most expensive of the bunch. Tony DeAngelo (3400), Brandt Clarke (3500), Drew Doughty (3300), Jonas Brodin (3300), Gus Forsling (3600), and Mike Reilly (3500) are a few of my favorites. Go #TeamNonPP
- PD loves Tony DeAngelo (3400), Alexander Romanov (3100), and Jake Middleton (2700)
Synopsis: Theodore and Lacombe look like the strongest of the chalk guys. Spurgeon projects incredibly well and will be very chalky. Matthew Schaefer (5500) is my favorite contrarian PP defensemen. McAvoy and Hedman seem fine as well. Dobson, Walman, and Matheson headline the non-PP group. There’s a long list of dirt cheap guys above who shoot, block shots, and play a ton. Cam York and Brady Skjei are there If you want to sacrifice projection just to get someone on the PP.
I continue to think one of the biggest edges in NHL DFS is the field’s obsession with the PP. The ownership has just gone too far toward players on PP1. This is especially true at defense.
Goalies
- My guess is that Filip Gustavsson (8400) will be the chalk here. It’ll be pretty flat in large fields, but he probably gets at least 25% in smaller fields.
- The field will probably gravitate toward Dostal (7400) if they’re not playing FLA or the NSH goalie (7000) if they’re not playing MIN
- Igor Shesterkin (7500) is set to get peppered with shots by a CAR team that just nuked their lines. The same goes for Casey DeSmith (7900). Ilya Sorokin (8100) seems like a solid play at home against this mediocre Boston offense. Jakub Dobes (8200) probably doesn’t see much volume, but it’s not a bad matchup
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- MIN is the chalk here. MIN1 likely has large field ownership of 18-20% and small field ownership of 25%. MIN2 is probably around 15%. That’s the only spot where I think ownership matters. You just have to decide weather you want to play this piss poor 5-on-5 team as chalk on an 11 game slate.
- Our sheets like Vegas and Florida quite a bit. I prefer Vegas though. Projections do not care for FLA though.
- Our projections love VGK2. I do as well. My love for Tomas Hertl and his net front role on the PP is unwavering. They also like the Predators and Islanders
- NYI1 is my favorite line of the slate and Schaefer is my favorite defensemen of the slate. LAK1, LAK3, and Brandt Clarke are probably my secondary choices.
- I continue to believe the major edges we have are in fading the super expensive F/C and playing the non-PP defensemen. Ownership will be spread out, but that doesn’t mean ignoring lower owned plays
NHL Synopsis
MIN is the clear chalk. You just have to decide if you want to eat the ownership on such a big slate.
In smaller fields, you can just play MIN if you want. I assume MIN/FLA is the chalk build. I think NYI1 is a great pivot off FLA1 and NYI3 is a great pivot off FLA2. Schaefer is also a great pivot away from the chalkier defensemen – although I think Spurgeon, Theodore, and Lacombe are fine.
In larger fields, I really like the Islanders and Kings. They’re priced competitively and in strong spots to see high danger chances. I think a MTL1 stack with both Dobson and Matheson is a strong play. We have Nashville projected well – and I think playing the PP makes a lot of sense. The sheets also like UTA2 – and I agree. There’s also a glut of non-PP defensemen that project really well. Tony DeAngelo and Brandt Clarke are my two favorites on the cheap end. Mike Matheson, Noah Dobson, and Jake Walman look solid in the mid-tier.
The point I want to drive home today is that there’s two big inefficiencies in ownership to exploit: The field’s propensity to invest in very expensive skaters and only in PP defensemen. This will continue to be true. Taking the ownership discounts and better projected players hasn’t worked out for me so far – but it only needs to a few times at the ownership numbers we’re seeing.
In conclusion, you have to decide what to do with MIN, Spurgeon, and Gustavsson. You can do what you want in smaller fields. I’ll be under on them in large field. There’s other strong spots at lower ownership.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm