Tonight’s NHL DFS slate has some pretty clear chalk – and some of it is very strong.
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 2 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
*I will be referring to BUF G Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen as “UPL” throughout the NHL article.
*It is unknown weather Hintz will play as of now (2 ET). I’m assuming he will not – for the sake of analysis – but who knows.
- It’s a big slate, so there’s not going to be a lot of ownership concerns. The only one may be DAL1 (Johnston/Robertson/Rantanen). A 22.3K line that will get over 25% ownership in small fields and 20% in large field is worth talking about. The two most popular lines that you’ll see paired with it are PHI1 (Dvorak/Tippett/Zegras) and CAR3 (Staal/Martinook/Jarvis)
- I would expect to also see low double digit ownership on BOS1 (Pastrnak/Geekie/Khusnutdinov), BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/McLeod), and maybe WSH1 (Strome/Ovechkin/Beauvillier). I doubt we see that much ownership on WSH1 though. The field will be wary of playing old man Ovechkin on a B2B.
- When teams load up their top line – like DAL is (as of now) – you can always expect them to play 20+ minutes. Anaheim has been better defensively, but that still makes them a strong value
- PD Projections really like TB1 (Point/Kucherov/Hagel) as an alternative to DAL1. They actually have a better raw projection at a cheaper price. Research Sheets have DAL1 as a much better play via expected goals though. They are the highest by a lot at over 2
- All 3 top Carolina lines are cheap and project well. CAR3 is – by far – the best by expected goals.
- The St. Louis Blues are going to get better. They lead the NHL in high danger chances, and they have two lines that can generate offense. BUF commits their fair share of penalties – and their PK has been far outplaying their expected goals against (5 goals against/60 below expected*) due to Alex Lyon standing on his head. It’s UPL tonight rather than Lyon. This sets up well for the STL PP. STL1 is my preference. I liked this much better before they decided to bench Kyrou tonight. BUF1 is probably my favorite line of the high-owned ones, but BUF3 (Rosen/Quinn/Ostlund) looks good by line marketshares. Hofer has been a disaster.
- This is a very interesting spot for MTL. They have two depth lines that project well in MTL2 (Gallagher/Dach/Bolduc) and MTL3 (Newhook/Demidov/Kapanen). MTL1 hasn’t been super high event, but they have no ownership and are fully correlated on the PP. MTL2 is my favorite cheap line of the slate. They’re generating 4.6 expected goals/60 and 75 shot attempts/60. Those are monster numbers. If you want someone to play with DAL1 – they would be my first choice. MTL is my favorite low owned team on the board tonight. I don’t hate a NJ PP stack on the other side either. The ceiling is there for them.
- I also want to briefly discuss this OTT/BOS game here. There’s a chance this one is a shitshow. BOS1 seems fine. Steuzle/Batherson/Sanderson, OTT3 (Pinto/Giroux/Amadio) or Zetterlund/Eller would be my choice from the OTT side at even strength. This game is going to be determined by penalties though. If there aren’t enough penalties it could easily be a snooze-fest. Therefore, I strongly prefer the PP stacks from both sides – but especially OTT. BOS commits plenty of penalties and they allow a ton of high danger chances on the PP. My favorite way to play BOS is the PP stack without Pastrnak. That lets you fit something else really good into the lineup. Go #TeamFadeExpensiveSkaters
- Both sides of the WSH/PIT game are also in play. WSH is generating a ton of offense from both the top 2 lines and Lindgren’s in net. PIT should be able to score here. PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Kindel) and PIT3 (Tomasino/Koivunen/Heinen) look solid. WSH2 (McMichael/Wilson/Protas) would be my favorite from the WSH side. I don’t care about the B2B, but I think the field will.
- They aren’t generating any offense, but one of LAK1 (Kopitar/Kempe/Armia) or LAK2 (Byfield/Fiala/Laferriere) will get to go out against FLA1 (Lundell/Marchand/Luostarainen) – who has been absolutely fucking steamrolled by everyone. ANH2 just skated circles around these Dinosaurs and Gauthier posted a hat trick by the early second period. Possible bounce-back spot for the Kings, but there is a real probability that they just suck again.
Synopsis: DAL1 looks like the clear chalk to me. You can just play them in smaller fields if you want. The danger is that Hintz is a GTD. If he comes back, they very likely splits the lines and go back to Hintz/Rantanen/Steel and Johnston/Robertson/Bourque. It’s a fine PP spot, but consider what you would do if that happens. My preferred ways to play DAL1 would probably be with NSH2, BUF3, MTL2, or – if you want to be spicy – Eller/Zetterlund and a pricey one-off. I’m not trying to eat 10-12% ownership on PHI1 or 8% ownership on CAR3. However, I think dropping Jarvis and going Staal/Martinook/Reilly with an expensive one-off is a strong play.
It’s a bit scary to play a line that’s over 20% owned at 22K in large field on such a big slate. I don’t think I’ll get that far under the field though. There’s enough well-projected ways to be really different. TB1 is a viable pivot and projects really well, but I’m concerned about their lack of shot generation though. MTL, NJ PP, and CAR PP are definitely my favorite contrarian lines here. I also like the spot for WSH2, STL1, NSH2, the OTT PP, and the OTT depth. MTL1, CAR PP are my favorite spots by far though. The Blues are due, I just wish they hadn’t benched their best player.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- The most popular one-offs here will almost certainly be from DAL1, Tage Thompson (8000), and David Pastrnak (8800). Tyler Seguin (4800), Owen Tippett (5200), and Trevor Zegras (4200) will be the popular guys on the cheaper end.
- Filip Forsberg (6800), Seth Jarvis (6400), Nikolaj Ehlers (5500), Tyler Segiun (4800), Sam Bennett (4700), and Andrei Svechnikov (3900) are some guys that PD likes.
- Svechnikov, Jimmy Snuggerud (3600),Viktor Arvidsson (3800) and Morgan Geekie (4800) are three cheaper guys I like.
- Our model doesn’t like him, but Adrian Kempe (6500) is about 500 too cheap. Him and Filip Forsberg look like my favorite one-offs
- Svechnikov, Arvidsson, Stefan Noesen (3000), Jack Quinn (3000) and Isak Rosen (3000) are four cheaper PP guys for you fetishists.
- I really like Brendan Gallagher (2700), Matthew Wood (2700), Fabian Zetterlund (2600), Lars Eller (2600), Kirby Dach (2600), Alex Newhook (2800), Sean Kuraly (2600), and Michael McCarron (2500) as dirt cheap filler guys that all project well at no ownership.
Synopsis: I’m still staying away from most of these expensive one-offs. I prefer the CAR guys, Forsberg, Kempe, Tippett, or Geekie if I’m picking one-offs. Snuggerud and Arvidsson also seem fine. The field is going to play Rosen and/or Quinn as cheap PP one-offs. The Blues don’t commit many penalties though. Zetterlund is my favorite of the bargain basement guys tonight, but you can’t go wrong with any of them.
NHL Defense
- The chalk here looks like Rasmus Dahlin (6300), Miro Heiskanen (5600), Thomas Harley (5200), and K’Andre Miller (3800). Probably 15% each. Nothing crazy.
- Our projections definitely like Dahlin and Miller. They also like Noah Dobson (4900), Thomas Chabot (4500), Colton Parayko (4500), and Jared Spurgeon (4300).
- I definitely like both Dobson and Mike Matheson (4400). Chabot, Parayko, and Mike Reilly (3500) are strong non-PP guys as well.
- Jake Chycrun (5900) and Justin Faulk (3800) are two PP guys I like quite a bit
- Brady Skjei (4000) is the other cheap PP guy for you PP fetishists out there.
- This is an elite shot blocking spot for all the MIN defensemen. Jonas Brodin (3300), Jake Middleton (2900). Brandt Clarke (3600), Alex Carrier (2900), and Drew Doughty (3300) also look good. You can play Esa Lindell (3300) with a DAL1 stack, but he will likely be owned. It’s almost not worth it imho.
Synopsis: The chalk is fine, but it’s a big slate. The MTL guys, Chabot, Reilly, and Parayko look great. The MIN guys seem fine as punts.
I continue to think one of the biggest edges in NHL DFS is the field’s obsession with the PP. The ownership has just gone too far toward players on PP1. This is especially true at defense.
Goalies
- My guess is people go to Bobrovsky (7600) to save some salary in their DAL1 stacks. Juuse Saros (7900) probably gets a fair but of ownership as well.
- Plenty of people will punt with Dostal (6900) if they’re not playing DAL1. You don’t really need to do that given DAL1’s price. There’s not much leverage in it.
- Pyotr Kochetkov (8300) and Darcy Kuemper (7800) are probably my two favorites tonight. I also like Filip Gustavsson (7100) on the cheap end. He could easily be in for a 40+ save night if he’s on his game.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- I think DAL11 is the chalk here. They deserve it. BUF1, PHI1, and BOS1 probably also get double digit ownership. CAR3 is the second highest owned secondary line.
- We actually have a beter projection on TB1 than DAL1 tonight. The Research sheets definitely do not agree though.
- Our projections also love STL1 and everything CAR. I tend to agree. I actually think the Kyrou scratch may lead to STL1 dominating the PP time against a shaky goalie and a BUF PK that is due major regression.
- Our projections are bearish on PHI1. The research sheets really like CAR3. I think you can just play Staal/Martinook/Reilly and use another mid-6K one-off if you want.
- I think all of STL/BUF, OTT/BOS, and WSH/PIT look like solid games to target. OTT PP, OTT3, WSH2, and STL1 are some of my favorites from these spots.
- The Blues lead the NHL in high danger chances. They’re eventually going to pop – and I’ll invest in STL1 tonight.
- I really like the MTL/NJ game tonight – especially the MTL side. MTL2 looks like the strongest dirt cheap play on the board and MTL1 looks like a great contrarian stack. NJ has really been struggling around the net and allowing a lot of high danger chances. I like NJ PP as well – but I don’t like the price on Jack Hughes.
- I love Adrian Kempe and Filip Forsberg as one-offs tonight. I have no idea what to do with the Kings beyond Kempe though. That Marchand line is ghastly defensively. I’m torn.
- MTL2 and STL1 are the sicko plays of the night.
NHL Synopsis
If Hintz is out, the clear chalk is DAL1. If he’s in, I think the build just shifts to a more balanced one with spend ups at defense and maybe some increased ownership on BOS1 and BUF1.
In smaller fields, you can certainly just play Dallas. I don’t like them close to as much with the split lines though. BUF1 and BOS1 seem like alternatives there. BUF/CAR, BUF/WSH seem like fine alternatives. Just be aware that it’s not really a PP spot for BUF.
In larger fields, I think Dallas is a great team to be under on if the lines are split. You’re going to see a lot of BUF PP stacks with cheap Rosen and Quinn. They’ll probably need to get there at even strength though. The Kyrou scratch sucks – but I still like STL1. They project well and have an even higher ceiling if they load up one PP. The field might shy away from the Blues now, but I will not. Buffalo is due to get lit up on the PK and hopefully it’s tonight. All the above games I mentioned are fine. I strongly prefer PP stacks from OTT/BOS. I like WSH2 from the WSH/PIT game. I also like everything Carolina and Montreal – especially MTL2. I prefer the CAR PP stacks, but CAR2 would be my favorite even strength line.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm