So last night definitely could’ve been better in the NHL streets. I got quite a few things wrong. So Mea Culpa. However, we move on.
I did things a little differently today. I ran sims on multiple different correlation and diversity settings to get an idea of how fragile the simulation results are. Therefore, I’ll be talking about how much various stack types and projections truly seperate from others. Hopefully this will help firmly pinpoint the best constructions and ideas.
I’ll mention the standouts and give you a feel for where the Industry is ownership-wise. Then I’ll let you know on where sims are using multiple major models, where PD is at and where I’m at. I’m going to keep this as concise as possible – so let’s get to it!
*I will be updating my thoughts in discord throughout the day, so please check back. This is all as of 12 pm PT.
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL Positional Overview
Center
- In both large and small fields I expect Tage Thompson (7400) to be the firm chalk with low-to-mid 30s ownership. He offers strong raw projection with a high SOG expectation at a C position that lacks value. He will likely seperate more from the field ownership-wise (at about 35%) in small-field and SE contests than large field contests. I think the ownership concentrates more on him with Logan Cooley (5900), and Barrett Hayton (3700) both in the mid-20s. The highest owned guys behind them probably start around 15%.
- In larger fields I expect Cooley and Hayton will be more closely followed by Tim Steuzle (6300) at 20% in relation to their 25%. Sam Bennett (6500), and Dylan Larkin (6400) likely follow him at around 10-12% each. Opinions industry-wide are divided on this, but my take is that UTA, Thompson, and Steuzle become the priorities in large field.
- Industry consensus is that C lacks value tonight outside of Hayton. However, Pius Suter (4200) and Jack McBain (3200) project fine industry-wide in the contest of the position.
- PD is definitely higher than consensus on Nazem Kadri (6800) and Connor Zary (4000). That is definitely a contrarian stance. We also have two PD specials of the night in Ryan Greene (2500) and Tyson Kozak (2500) with very strong value projections. None of these guys will have any ownership.
- Industry-wide large field sims are high on Pius Suter (4200) and Nazem Kadri (6800) for large field GPPs. They like STL PP stacks with the Suter line, so I think we can throw Robert Thomas (7000) in there should you decide to do STL PP1 instead. There’s some love for Steuzle, Dylan Cozens (5100), and Brayden Schenn (4800) as well. Thompson also pops up in some spots as a one-off. One model has him with a much higher projection than others though – so it’s hard to call that a consensus
- Industry-wide small field sims are high on OTT, STL, and CGY. Therefore Steuzle, Dylan Cozens (5100), Kadri, Morgan Frost (4700), and Thomas pop up quite a bit. Tage Thompson also pops up as a one-off and 2-mans. I’m totally fine with playing him as a one-off, but I prefer to play him with Benson (3600) unless you can’t eat his massive ownership.
- Shane Pinto (5200) is a guy that catches my eye – even though he’s probably overpriced. Robert Thomas is one of the league’s best distributors and is strongly correlated with his linemates at low ownership. I think the 3-4% ownership we may see on STL1 is a serious bargain in larger fields. They should not be 1/3 the ownership of STL2 from a probabilistic standpoint.
Synopsis: The clear chalk in all formats here is some combination of Thompson, Hayton, and Cooley. The public continue to be big Utah believers. The consensus offered by industry-wide sims is only slightly different based on field size. Kadri sims bettter in the smaller fields than the STL and OTT (Steuzle, Cozens, Schenn, Suter, Thomas). In larger fields the STL and OTT guys sim slightly better than the CGY guys (Kadri, Frost). Thompson pops up as a one-off and in 2-mans. I like Shane Pinto and Robert Thomas as lower owned guys quite a bit. PD models like Kadri and Connor Zary a lot more than the rest of the industry. Seems like a solid night to make some money to me
“Fortune Favors the Bold” – Virgil
Wing
- We have one piece of pretty huge chalk here and it’s Zach Benson (3600) at around 35% ownership. There’s a huge division around the industry on his projection. My hunch is the Industry comes to more of a consensus on him, but he still ends up as the highest owned at 25-28%. He looked great in the preseason and has strong numbers when he plays with Thompson. However, I think that stuff is pretty noisy in general. He’s cheap and BUF is in a good spot. Let’s not go nuts here though
- I am more inclined to view Drake Batherson (4600) as simply underpriced. That’s about 1K cheaper than we were paying for him last year. I think he comes in around the same ownership as Benson in the end – around 25%. I’m totally fine eating the ownership on him.
- Dylan Guenther (7300), Clayton Keller (7100), and Alex Tuch (7100) likely all come in between 20-25% as the pay up guys on the wing. They have high ceilings, but none of these guys simulate well at all regardless of settings. Overall, they seem either correctly or overpriced to me. That doesn’t mean you can’t play them though. Come and get me Guenther stans.
- Jordan Kyrou (6800) and Dylan Holloway (6700) project as the best pivots off the chalkier UTA and BUF guys here regardless of field size. They also look like the strongest large field plays according to the sims. You can probably include Pavel Buchnevich (5500) and Jake Neighbors (5000), and Jimmy Snuggerud (4000) in that pile as well just from a probabilistic standpoint. They don’t sim as well (especially Buchnevich and Neighbors), but they are lower owned.
- Small Field sims really like Matt Coranato (5200), Joel Farabee (4300), Fabian Zetterlund (4200), and Drake Batherson (4600) industry-wide. However, there is definitely some fragility in the sims. If you tweak the settings just slightly you get CGY with STL instead of OTT.
- PD Sims Love Calgary in small field. They like STL/OTT lineups with some CHI in larger fields
- There is plenty of wing value tonight. JJ Peterka (4700) and Ryan Donato (4200) see little PP time but are historically high shot volume guys at cheap prices. Jimmy Snuggerud, Fabian Zetterlund, and Drake Batherson are also strong values. There’s a ton of guys PD loves on the cheap end tonight, but Colton Dach (2800) is the guy that pops up in the sims the most. James Van Reimsdyk (2500) is your dumpster PP guy of the night. He’s replacing the injured Lucas Raymond on DET PP1
- My personal low owned favorites here are Jake Neighbors (5000), Pavel Buchnevich, Claude Giroux (4100), and Ridley Grieg (3500). STL1 is just underowned. OTT3 has been pretty good dating back to last year and these BUF depth lines are just awful defensively.
Synopsis: Benson and Batherson are the underpriced guys here. I expect that they will both be chalk at around 25% in large fields and Benson may get as high as the mid-30s in smaller fields. I lean more toward Batherson. However, sims lean much more toward OTT than BUF so that’s a big part of it. Sims like the OTT/STL guys in larger fields and CGY with OTT or STL in smaller fields. There’s a ton of value and lower ownership here, so I’m less inclined to eat chalk on expensive guys. I’m a fan of STL1 and OTT3 just due to the lower ownership. PD is really high on CGY tonight – and I love that. This is a #teamsicko kind of slate.
Defense
- I expect Rasmus Dahlin (6500) and Jake Sanderson (6300) to be the chalk here at 22-25% each. Maybe Dahlin seperates in smaller fields to a larger degree, but I’m not sure at this point. Mikhail Sergachev (5700) and Owen Power (3800) probably come in high teens to low 20s. I don’t expect there to be much differentiation in ownership between field sizes with the exception of Dahlin.
- Mo Seider (5400) and Aaron Ekblad (5000) both probably garner low double digit ownership as PP guys here. Same with Thomas Chabot (5300)
- Colton Parayko (5200) doesn’t get PP time, but plays a ton of minutes and is always productive. PD likes him quite a bit at lower ownership – and I always like him.
- If you’re playing STL2 I don’t hate playing Justin Faulk (4700) at moderate ownership. He sees PP time with Kyrou and Holloway.
- PD is high on both Mackenzie Weegar (6300) and Rasmus Andersson (5100) at lower ownership
- PD NHL sims are high on Parayko (5200) and Fowler (4900) in larger fields. They’re also very high on playing Sanderson and Weegar together in smaller fields. It makes a ton of sense to pay up at both defense spots in a CGY stack since you’re betting on a lower scoring slate anyway.
- NHL Super Prospect Zayne Parekh (3200) has been in the lineup the last two nights, but I doubt he will be tonight on the B2B. Check on that though.
- If you want to go with Bowen Byram (3700) as a contrarian play with a BUF stack I guess that’s fine. I think he still gets 7-8% though and his projection is mid at best.
- Olli Maata (2600), Matt Gryzelcyk (2700), and Niko Mikkola (2900) look like your cheap defensemen tonight.
Synopsis: Dahlin, Sanderson, Sergachev, and Power are the popular guys. Seider and Ekblad probably get some ownership, but nobody else is likely to receive much. Colton Parayko and Cam Fowler stand out industry-wide as strong larger field plays. PD definitely likes Weegar, Power, Chabot, and Sanderson in smaller fields. The industry like Maata as the cheap pay-down guy. I definitely like all the STL and OTT guys as well as Zayne Parekh if he plays. Sadly, Parekh’s upside is limited by CGY playing him with the shitbags on their 3rd line and I doubt he plays..
Goalies
- There’s not a ton of consensus here, but Merlainen (7800), Cooley (7100), and Lyon (7600). Just play whomever
- Vejmelka is likely the heavy chalk at 25-30%
- We have Merlainen (7800) and Hofer (8100) projected the best
- Goalie in NHL is a crap shoot. Best of luck.
Synopsis: Merlainen and Hofer project the best for us. The industry is highest on Vejmelka and that just makes me wanna play CGY
NHL Stacks and Theory
- The chalk in all field sizes is likely to be these BUF/UTA combinations. Thompson/Benson will be particularly chalky as a combination, but it’s pretty unlikely that Thompson gets there without Benson.
- Utah simulates terribly regardless of contest size or sim setting.
- The industry-wide NHL sims tell us that STL and OTT are both very strong plays regardless of field size. CGY stacks are a very strong play in smaller fields. Detroit gets some love in larger fields as well. PD loves CGY for all field sizes and I agree.
- The general large field construction consensus is to go with 6-man stacks or lessen your correlation and try to hit the nuts with a 4/2 approach. Either seem fine
- Batherson and Benson are both underpriced on this slate. I tend to side with Batherson. James Van Riemsdyk is your cheap PP guy du jour
- be aware that OTT is going to be very fluid. They’re trying to replace a perennial NHL All-Star in Brady Tkachuk, so they’re likely going to mix it up and find what works. Don’t be afraid to stack across lines and/or play larger stacks. It’s going to be somewhat unpredictable with them.
- It’s possible BUF may also juggle their lines if things aren’t working. They’re also searching for what works.
- The OTT/BUF game is the highest owned thing along with Utah. It’s the best environment, but also an extremely volatile game – from an NHL standpoint – with two teams searching for answers who commit lots of penalties.
- Sims see STL and CGY as the strongest pivots away from the OTT/BUF game. I tend to agree. The CHI/STL game is going to be slow, but there’s also much less ownership on STL despite them having the highest total in some spots. Both of STL’s top lines are viable, but STL1 will be markedly lower owned. I think you stick with a 1st line or PP stack for CGY. No need to be too fancy. They have no ownership and are facing chalk Vejmelka
- There’s definitely plenty of fragility in the sims between STL/OTT and 4 or 6-man stacks. You don’t have to tweak things much to get one or the other.
- Sims favor 4-man stacks for smaller fields and larger stacks for larger fields. 4-man stacks are fine in larger fields too, but the BUF ones look terrible. Only 6-man and 2-man BUF stacks sim well using any setting.
NHL Sims
NHL Sims seems to like STL, OTT, and to a lesser extent CGY in large fields. You don’t have to tweak things much to get more of STL or more of OTT. You don’t have to tweak that much to get 6-man BUF stacks either. Smaller field sims definitely like CGY1/PP stacks. They like them paired with STL or OTT. PD is extremely high on CGY – especially in smaller fields. We like Weegar/Sanderson double pay ups at defense with Merlainen in net quite a bit as well. The overall message here is that the only things that sim universally poorly are Utah stacks or 3/4-man BUF stacks. It’s pretty wide open, but CGY looks truly excellent. I really like STL1 and OTT3 as lower owned large field plays. The Blues are my favorite team overall. It’s a great sicko slate.