Welcome to our last NHL article of the week!
This article is going to focus more on industry-wide projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in discord. so please check back. This is all as of 1 pm PT.
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL Lines
Lines
- There is a pretty firm Industry consensus that UTA2 (Peterka/Cooley/Guenther) will be the highest owned primary line here in the low-to-mid 20s ownership-wise. You’ll probably see it on the higher end in smaller fields with large UTA stacks being popular there. UTA1 (Hayton/Keller/Schmaltz), TB1 (Point/Kucherov/Hagel), and MIN1 (Rossi/Kaprizov/Boldy) come in behind them at mid-teens ownership. UTA1 more likely comes with high teens ownership in smaller fields
- There’s also a pretty strong consensus that SJ1 (Celebrini/Skinner/Kurashev) and TB2 (Cirelli/Guentzel/Concalves) are the highest owned secondary lines in the mid-teens. CHI1 (Bedard/Dach/Burakovsky) and CHI2 (Nazar/Teravainen/Bertuzzi) come in around 10% each. I also like TB3 (Gourde/Bjorkstrand/Holmberg) on the cheap end – particularly Gourde/Bjorkstrand with chalky Darren Raddysh at D
- DET2 (Kasper/DeBrincat/Kane), TB1 (Point/Kucherov/Hagel), and MIN1 (Rossi/Kaprizov/Boldy) look like the top plays when you factor in Industry-Wide projection, ownership, and top 2 probability
- Outside of the chalky stuff, PD likes WSH1 (Ovechkin/Strome/Beauvillier), WSH2 (McMichael/Wilson/Protas), SJ2 (Wennberg/Toffoli/Eklund), and SJ3 (Smith/Graf/Misa)
- The SJ/UTA game and it’s ownership create some interesting dynamics on this slate. We’ll get into that in the game theory section
- If I had to pick a favorite on this slate it’s probably TB1. I think a TB or WSH 6-man stack is a very interesting way to play this slate.
Synopsis: UTA is the chalkiest team on the slate (I’ll talk more about this later). They probably both see small field ownership in the 20s. PD likes UTA1 over UTA2 – which makes sense to me – as it’s a bit less owned and correlated on PP1. TB1 and MIN1 are both very strong plays in relation to ownership, projection, and probability. SJ1 and TB2 are the chalk secondary lines. I think a TB or WSH 5 or 6-man stack is definitely an interesting way to play this slate. The true sicko play is a SJ 5 or 6-man stack. I don’t mind a CHI 5-man either. There are also some very interesting dynamics in this SJ/UTA game that make for some interesting possibilities.
F/C One-offs
- This slate is somewhat lacking in truly awful prices. However, I would argue that Colton Dach (2900) and Andre Burakovsky (3500) remain underpriced. It is perfectly acceptable to play them as value guys without Bedard in the context of this slate.
- The inefficent pricing we have continues to be on the high end. Kirill Kaprizov (8200) and Nikita Kucherov (8200) continue to be underpriced. I know Kucherov hasn’t been great so far and he’s older, but it’s too early to conclude anything. They are both fine as one-offs and among the best players in the NHL. Some models also argue that Dylan Guenther (7800) is underpriced. I tend to agree with PD in that he needs to show more in order to be in the neighborhood of the NHL’s highest price-wise.
- PD likes Alex Ovechkin (7200) and Macklin Celebrini (7000) quite a bit. I continue to be bearish on Ovechkin, though he is viable if you believe in the projection.
- We like Connor McMichael (3900), Jeff Skinner (3300), and Michael Misa (3300) on the cheap end. If you’re dumpster diving, theres Ryan Greene (2500), Linus Karlsson (2500), and Liam Ohgren (2500). Either sharks guy makes a fine one-off or part of a two-man if you decide to play the sharks goalie
- I personally like Yanni Gourde (3000), Oliver Bjorkstrand (3600), Ryan Hartman (4000), and Vladimir Tarasenko (4000) as cheaper guys. Tarasenko and Bjorkstrand are cheaper PP1 guys. I definitely prefer them to trash can PP1 play of the day James Van Reimsdyk (2700). Tarasenko is an extremely skilled distributor that has been very productive on the PP so far.
Synopsis: Two of the NHL’s best players in Kaprizov and Kucherov continue to be inefficiently priced. They’re great as one-offs and I like them better than the chalk Guenther one-off. PD liked Ovechkin and Celebrini. I continue to be bearish on Ovechkin. I think Tarasenko and Bjorkstrand look great as cheaper PP1 guys. You can pair them with Gourde for TB and Hartman/Buium for MIN respectively to attack the poor depth of WSH and DET.
Defense
- Quinn Hughes (7400), and Mikhail Sergachev (6200) are the chalkiest defensemen with ownership in the low-to-mid 20s. There’s disagreement among the industry as to who is higher owned. I think it’s Sergachev in the mid-to-high 20s and Hughes in the mid-teens personally. Sergachev is totally fine in any context. He’s just on the ice forever and in all 3 phases (ES, PP, PK).
- Mo Seider (5800) and Victor Hedman (6100) follow him in the mid-teens.
- Darren Raddysh (3200) looks like the chalk cheap guy with mid-teens to low 20s ownership. Dimitry Orlov (3400) is another popular value that projects well industry-wide.
- PD likes Sam Dickinson (2500) and Emil Liljeberg (2500) as punt defensemen. I really like Liljeberg as a pivot off Raddysh and as part of a large TB stack. I don’t hate Zach Bogosian (2500) as a punt to pair with Hartman either
- Victor Hedman (6100), Zeev Buium (4100), Mario Ferraro (2900) and Jake Chycrun (5200) stand out as strong plays for me. I think John Marino (2500) makes a lot of sense in a UTA stack at min price.
- playing two defensemen from the same team is always a strong way to differentiate a stack on slates like this. They do not have to be from the same line either. Sometimes it’s better if they’re not for ownership purposes
Synopsis: Sergachev seems fine as chalk. He may lead NHL defensemen in minutes at the end of the year. I’m a bit more bearish on Hughes and Raddysh. I think Hughes is overpriced and on a lousy offense. There are reasonable alternatives to Raddysh. Buium continues to be underpriced and underowned. I think Liljeberg, Marino, and Dickinson are all reasonable punts.
Goalies
- Vejmelka (8400) is the clear chalk at high-20s to low 30s ownership. He projects the best industry-wide and has the best matchup. I do think the poor skill level of San Jose and the shot-reducing, neutral-zone trap that Utah plays limits his ceiling saves-wise. There’s very easy paths to failure for him should he allow even one goal. He is not as “safe” a play as you might think.
- Logan Thompson (7800) and Jonas Johansson (8200) come in with mid-to-high teens ownership. It wouldn’t surprise me if one of these guys is the highest owed besides Vejmelka in the 20s either. Whatever. Who the F*uck knows. It’s goalie. Play whoever you want.
- Askarov (7000) is the leverage play here.
- PD likes the chalk in Vejmelka and Thompson
Synopsis: Vejmelka is the chalk, but there are even wider paths to failure here than for most chalk goalies (see above). Every goal will really hurt him because the shot volume is likely to be low. Askarov is the leverage play. It’s goalie. Good luck.
Time to pour one out for John Gibson (7200). It looks like it’s over. Tribe and I made a lot of NHL monies with him throughout his years getting pummeled by seemly 35 shots a night in Anaheim. Thanks for the sweats buddy.
NHL Stacks and Theory
- UTA1 or UTA2 with SJ1 or TB2 with Sergachev and one of Vejmelka/Thompson/Johansson looks like the chalk to me. SJ/UTA stacks will be popular as will UTA stacks of all sizes. I’d expect UTA onslaughts to be popular in smaller fields. If you play them, you can include multiple defensemen and/or a guy lower on the depth chart to be contrarian enough
- TB2 and SJ1 are the highest owned cheap lines. SJ2 or SJ3 are pivots PD likes. I like TB3 quite a bit. You can drop holmberg and go with Lileberg as a min-priced defensemen to free up a wing spot. PD likes SJ2 and SJ3. SJ3 looks like a super strong play. You could play UTA3 as a leverage play as well. They just project badly.
- TB1, MIN1, DET2, and SJ3 look like the best plays in relation to ownership here. This TB/DET game could see some fireworks. The scoring tends to be concentrated on these teams and there are two goalies in this game that suck. TB3 makes a lot of sense as a cheap line. All lines with Andrew Copp – like DET3 – suck defensively.
- PD likes WSH1 and WSH2 quite a bit. I definitely like WSH2, but I have my concerns about WSH1. I think last year was an outlier for them and teams have adjusted to Carbury’s innovative triangle offense.
- This SJ/UTA game is going to have a lot of ownership on the top 2 lines and lots of game stacks. you will also see a lot of UTA/Vejmelka lineups. They project well, but I do want to issue a word of caution: Utah does not want to play a high shot volume, offensively aggressive style of hockey. They play a neutral-zone trap specifically to slow the game down and attack when it’s advantageous. The Sharks also suck. It’s not conducive to a high scoring environment. When they have a two goal lead – or any lead in the 3rd – they want to jam up the other team in the neutral zone. Think about the Flyers last year or the Kings in 2023 through the beginning of 2024, but with more talent. If you’re just playing Utah alone, you may be working with a more narrow path than ownership dictates. You’re relying on the other offenses failing and the Sharks pushing the Mammoth. If you want to play UTA I think it makes sense to pay attention to the scores of the other games and be prepared to make changes to your lineup if one of the two early games blows up. There are very clear paths to failure here on all sides – UTA, SJ, and Vejmelka.
- I’m fine with Sergachev chalk, but I’m less enthusiastic about Hughes and Raddysh. I’d rather Pivot to Hedman on the high end, play Buium or Chycrun in the mid-tier, or punt with Dickinson/Liljeberg
- Kucherov and Kaprizov continue to be underpriced. Gourde (3000), Bjorkjstrand (3600), Liljeberg (2500), Tarasenko (4000), Buium (4100), and Hartman (4000) are some of my favorite cheapies here.
- SJ overstacks and/or Askarov are the sicko plays on this slate
- I’ll post the NHL sims in discord about an hour before lock
Synopsis
NHL slates of this size don’t usually see the spread out ownership we see here. I don’t see a reason to be too fancy here. The best plays look underowned to me. San Jose/Utah game stacks seem fine, but it will not be in any way underowned. It makes sense to pivot to SJ2 or 3 from SJ1 though. I also think UTA1 is better than UTA2 at slightly lower ownership. The Hayton/Keller/Schmaltz line has a good track record and a large sample. These kind of lineups seems fine in smaller fields. However, heed the word of caution above. There are very clear paths to failure here for all the chalky pieces involved.
Kaprizov and Kucherov continue to be underpriced. utilizing cheaper combinations to jam one of these guys into your lineup makes a ton of sense to me. Bjorkstrand, Gourde, Tarasenko, and Buium all seem underpriced to me as well.
In larger fields, I don’t see a reason to get that crazy. If you want to fade the chalk game – which is very viable – MIN1, TB1, and DET2 all seem like the clear top plays. I think SJ/UTA is more of a stack or fade if you want to play Utah. It’s super unlikely that Utah wins this game 5-0/5-1 or something. They’re not likely to be aggressive enough. TB or MIN is my lean here and I like large stacks of both. The best stuff just isn’t owned enough. I see little reason to reach down and play crazy stuff here. A WSH overstack is viable though. Some sort of SJ2 or SJ3 stack with Askarov – or even a SJ overstack with Askarov – seem like the clear sicko plays.