Welcome to Friday’s 4-game NHL slate. We went from my favorite slate of the year to probably my least favorite slate of the year – but let’s dive in
This article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 2 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL Lines
- We have some pretty clear chalk at the top here in NHL DFS tonight – and it’s TOR1 (Matthews/Nylander/McMann), NJ2 (Hischier/Meier/Gritsyuk), and NJ1 (Hughes/Bratt/Palat). All 3 of these lines are likely owned in the low-to-mid 20s, but I could see NJ2 being a bit higher owned than NJ1. People will feel comfortable with builds like NJ2/TOR2. SJ1 (Celebrini/Toffoli/Smith) is probably in the mid-teens ownership-wise, but also clearly underpriced. Our projections love them, and rightfully so. Sheets think NJ1 is the best play by a lot. I agree.
- CGY2 (Backlund/Coranato/Coleman) and NJ3 (Mercer/Cotter/Brown) will be the lines paired with TOR1. The Industry has them both around 12%, but I suspect it ends up more like NJ3 15%, CGY2 9%. I think the field will want that TOR/NJ combination tonight – and it’s a reasonable thing to want. They are the highest probability combinations.
- We’re going to see around 12% ownership on CGY1, TOR2, CBJ1, and WSH1 as well. Both sheets and projections lean CBJ1 – and I agree
- PD is 3-4 points over the industry on CBJ1 and CBJ2 (per usual) and about 6 points above the Industry on NJ1 and NJ2. It’s not hard to deciper what we like tonight.
- Going by projections and sheets – WPG1 makes a great pivot on the high end. They should be about half as owned as the top end lines. CBJ2 (Fantilli/Johnson/Jenner), WSH1 (Strome/Ovechkin/Beauvillier), and WSH2 (Luc-Dubois/Protas/Leonard) make solid pivots in the mid-tier.
- I think the cheaper lines show the most promise today in large field GPPs. BUF3 (Ostlund/Zucker/Quinn) looks like an awesome alternative to NJ3 at lower ownership. Leafs depth lines have long been abysmal defensively and I’ve made a lot of money attacking them over the years. SJ2 (Wennberg/Skinner/Eklund) also projects really well, but not particularly low owned. They look like a strong smaller field play.
- As far as myself – I like WSH2 quite a bit, but I prefer to drop leonard and add Matt Roy (2800), Jake Chycrun (5700), or both. I also love BUF3. Both make strong pivots on the lower end. WPG1 also makes sense as a pivot on the higher end.
- If you want to truly dumpster dive – I think you can play Barron and Pearson off WPG4. The sheets kind of like them and they project okay. I’m less high on Koepke, so include him or not. Come play in the dumpster. It’s warm in here 😂
- The sicko play of the night is clearly BUF1/PP stacks or SJ3. They’re low owned, they don’t project well, and this is a classic Leafs letdown spot.
Synopsis: TOR/NJ combinations are the clear chalk – and also the best plays projections-wise. There’s also no firm chalk build type (high/low, balanced, etc). That makes this a tough slate from a large-field standpoint. I think some of the industry-wide ownership is probably wrong and NJ1 is about as owned as TOR1. I think WPG1 looks like the strongest pivot on the high end, while BUF3 looks like the strongest pivot on the low end.
NHL F/C One-offs
Synopsis: The one-off center is going to be a popular thing tonight in NHL DFS. Austin Matthews (9000) and Jack Hughes (8500) will be the most common and over 30% owned apiece. Macklin Celebrini (6500) seems fine, but I think playing a one-off wing makes a ton of sense here. Kyle Connor (7800) is the obvious one. Kirill Marchenko (6000), Timo Meier (6700) and William Nylander (7200) seem like strong candidates at a wing position where one-offs will be less popular. I am particularly intrigued by the idea of playing Bobby McMann (3900) as a one-off. There’s such a big price difference between him and his linen mates that he could easily get there while they don’t. He also has a reputation as a volume shooter. I think the same idea can be applied to Ondrej Palat (3500), but he’s not the shot monger that McMann is. We don’t really have that super cheap PP1 guy tonight, but Josh Doan (4200) probably plays net front and that’s a reasonable price. I guess Alex Iafallo (3500) is the cheapest, but I like Doan’s ceiling way better. That net front position on the PP gives a player really high-probability scoring chances.
NHL Defense
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3100) will be running the Leafs PP with Morgan Reilly out. He’s going to be monster chalk at 30%+ ownership everywhere. I think the firm chalk pairing is him and Dougie Hamilton (6400) at 25%. Mackenzie Weegar (5500) and Dmitry Orlov (3500) probably get mid double digits with Timothy Liljegren (3600) around 12%.
- The double pay down or cheap/mid-price at defense is firmly in play here. I think Brett Pesce (4000), Neil Pionk (4000), and Rasmus Anderssen (4700). I wouldn’t feel bound to spend 6400 on chalk Hamilton. He doesn’t project that well.
- If you do want to spend up, I think Josh Morrissey (6100), Jake Chycrun (5700) and Zack Werenski (7300) are solid alternatives to Hamilton. Chycrun should shoot a ton on the PP and is an excellent real-life NHL shooter.
- Werenski, Weegar, Trevor Van Reimsdyk (2500) and Matt Roy (2800) are a few PD favorites
- I think playing two defensemen from TOR or NJ in larger stacks makes a lot of sense tonight
Synopsis: Ekman-Larsson and Hamilton is the stone chalk pairing. Ekman-Larsson. is a very strong play, but I think Hamilton is a bit shakier. Jack Hughes runs that PP, not Hamilton. I think going with two cheaper guys or paying for Werenski makes a lot of sense. I like Brett Pesce and Jake McCabe quite a bit as different defensemen you can play from popular teams at lower ownership.
Goalies
- Jake Allen (8400) is the chalk at 30% and he’s the PD favorite. He could garner even more ownership than that since the field will have less faith in Eric Comrie (8200) than Hellebuyck
- Anthony Stolarz (8000) seems fine. BUF puts a lot of low quality shots out there.
- Alex Lyon (7400) is my guy tonight
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- So the general idea will work under here is going to be capturing as much of the scoring from TOR and NJ as possible. The one thing I do expect is a slant toward whomever is on the PP. Therefore, you probably see less ownership on guys like McMann, Palat, and Gritsyuk than their linemates.
- Our sheets and projections love NJ1. NJ2 does not look quite as good on the sheets, but similarly via the projections.They also both love CLS1
- Our Model loves everything SJ and CLS tonight
- TOR1 projects well, but seems slightly overowned compared to NJ1.
- NJ3 and CGY2 will be the popular pairings with TOR1/NJ1. NJ2/TOR2 lineups will also be popular
- Onslaughts of both NJ and TOR make sense. I do prefer NJ though.
- CLS1/2 both look like really strong plays. Same goes for a CLS onslaught. Both of those can also be said for WSH. That game will be played at a fast pace and have a ton of volatility. It looks solid from an ownership perspective. I do not like the WSH lines as much though. They also have two defensemen on the PP which has been shown to be almost universally bad.
- WPG1 looks like a strong pivot on the high end. BUF3, SJ2, and SJ3 look solid on the lower end.
- I think playing a mid-to-expensive wing as a one-off instead of a center (which will be more popular) makes sense. Connor, Meier, and Nylander make sense.
- One of my favorite ideas here is to play McMann or Palat as a one-off. There’s a huge price discrepency between them and their linemates. They can definitely hit while their linemates post scores that are mid.
- Iafallo and Doan are the cheap PP one-offs, but I prefer McMann or Palat for the reasons stated above. You can go to SJ3 for super cheap guys, but I do like Barron/Pearson from WPG4 as well.
- Hamilton and Ekman-Larsson are the firm chalk. I’m more inclined to pass on Hamilton. There are solid alternatives to him in Weegar, Chycrun, Werenski, and Morrissey. I think I prefer to shop cheaper with Orlov, Liljegren, Anderssen, Pesce, and McCabe
- Allen is the top play here in net. The sicko plays are Askarov or Lyon. Lyon might be my favorite play of the night.
NHL Synopsis
NJ1/2/3 and TOR1/2 are the chalk here. Onslaught stacks of either team seem fine, but you’ll have to be careful to put lower owned pieces in them for larger fields. I really like the idea of playing McMann as a one-off. I think it makes a ton of sense if you’re playing TOR. CLS or SJ are probably my favorite contrarian teams here. WPG1 is also a strong pivot on the high end. SJ2, SJ3, and BUF3 look strong on the low end. OEL is really chalky, but also really cheap. I think Hamilton is the easier guy to get away from
In smaller fields I think the NJ or TOR onslaught is probably fine. You’ll have to mix it up a little though. Playing all 5 guys on the PP just won’t be unique. Getting away from Hamilton seems like the move there as well. I really like SJ and CLS stacks in larger fields. BUF3 is also a great pivot away from the more popular secondary lines. Werenski looks like an elite large field play to me as well.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm