What’s up everyone. Kudos to the big brains at the NHL who decided on having zero games yesterday and everyone play today. Thanks guys. It’s another huge slate, so there are going to be multiple paths to winning. I’ll mention the standouts and give you a feel for where the Industry is ownership-wise. Then I’ll let you know on where sims are using multiple major models, where PD is at and where I’m at. There are few wrong answers on an NHL slate like this and many paths to winning – so here we go.
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL Positional Overview
Center
- We have some pretty clear chalk tonight at C. Alex Wennberg 3100), Macklin Celebrini (7200), and Marco Rossi (3800) all probably come in at 12-15% ownership. That’s kind of a lot for such a huge slate.
- Bo Horvat (5500), Matt Barzal (5300), Logan Cooley (5200), Mason McTavish (5100) and Joel Eriksson Ek (5600) probably all come in around 9-10% each. See a theme here?
- The chalk is going to settle in the lower tier at C, so playing two 4-5K centers is going to be pretty popular. Our model (and sims) are extremely bullish on Sean Monahan (5300), Matt Duchene (4600), and Jiri Kulich (4300) here and I agree.
- We also like Sidney Crosby (7100) and Nathan MacKinnon (8800). MacKinnon isn’t going to catch much ownership here for him (he always gets at least 8-10%), so he’s a strong play.
- Industry-wide sims really like TB1 tonight, so Brayden Point (6800) sims out extremely well.
- There’s a ton of hype surrounding the San Jose Sharks and Utah Mammoth (moreso the mammoth) taking a step forward this year. I expect both of these teams to get steamed.
- A couple favorites of mine are Sebastian Aho (5900), Sam Bennett (5800), Nick Suzuki (6200), Tim Steuzle (6600), John Tavares (6600), Filip Chytil (4100), and Connor Bedard (6200). I really like CAR1 quite a bit tonight. I also really like the MTL/CHI and OTT/FLA games for offense. They both have a ton of variance, but could easily pop. Chytil is cheap, low owned, and can really score.
- Kirby Dach (3000), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2800) or Yanni Gourde (2900) are there if you need cheap guys
Synopsis: The chalk here will be Wennberg, Celebrini, and Rossi. The glut of 5K centers mentioned above will all have ownership as well. I wouldn;t be surprised if Eriksson Ek or Logan Cooley jumped up into the chalk tier either. If you want to pivot off the 5K guys Sean Monahan (5300) would be the model’s favorite (leveraged against the chalk goalie), but I also like Sebastian Aho and Sam Bennett quite a bit. If I’m going above 6800 for Point I would probably prefer to just get up to MacKinnon as a one-off. He’s the best center in the NHL. There’s some cheap guys above that seem fine in their respective stacks as well.
Wing
- Matt Boldy (6800), Tyler Toffoli (6100), Kirill Kaprizov (7900), David Pastrnak (8300), and Dylan Guenther (6400) are probably all between 12-16% here. All the other Sharks wings on SJ1 and SJ2 probably come in around 10% (Eklund, Smith, Kurashev) along with JJ Peterka (4900)
- If you want to play Kaprizov and Boldy as chalk that’s fine. Kaprizov is too cheap and It’s a good spot for them. However, when I run sims with 3 different models for small and large field GPPs one thing is a constant: Nikita Kucherov (8000) and Jake Guentzel (7000) pop up all over the place as the pivot off MIN1.
- I am very high on Kucherov at a signifcant ownership discount from Kaprizov. He was a 10K skater at times last year and one of the best players in the NHL. He’s great in a one-off or the TB1 stack insead of chalkier Kaprizov
- PD is very high on Columbus tonight, so naturally it’s sims like Marchenko (6600), Jenner (5900), Kent Johnson (5100), and Voronkov (4900). We have an aggressive projection on David Pastrnak (8300), Leon Draisaitl (8200), and Alex Ovechkin (7400)
- I like Tage Thompson (7100), Brady Tkachuk (7300) and Artemi Panarin (7500) quite a bit if you decide not to spend on Kaprizov, Pastrnak, or Kucherov.
- There are tons of solid plays in this range, but some 6K guys I like are, Seth Jarvis (6500), William Nylander (7200), Cole Caufield (6800), and Rickard Rakell (6200)
- In the 5K Range I think Slafkovsky (5100), Ehlers (5900), Lee (5500), and Svechnikov (5300).
- In the 4Ks you can go to Ryan Donato (4400) or JJ Peterka (4900) on the chalkier side, but I really like Bobby McMann (4200), Oliver Bjorkstrand (4100), Fabian Zetterlund (4500), Jason Zucker (4700), and Taylor Hall (4300)
- The MTL3 guys (Bolduc, Gallagher) pop once again in our model. I agree. Chicago is bad. So is MTL though so Burakovsky (3800), Bertuzzi (4000), and Teravainen (4200) seem fine
- If you want a dirt cheap guy, Tomasek (2500) is on PP1 for EDM and 2500. Screaming bargain.
Synopsis: We are high Kaprizov and Boldy. They’re chalk for a reason. However, NHL Sims industry-wide really like TB1 regardless of field size. I think the chalk here is to spend on your wings – and I think that’s totally fine. Kaprizov, Kucherov, and Tkachuk are all clearly underpriced. Thompson also looks great. I prefer those guys over Draisaitl and Pastrnak who seem closer to appropriately priced. I also think it’s very viable to spend down here, so I do like the CHI guys, Ehlers, Slafkovsky, Svechnikov, Ehlers and Lee quite a bit. You can probably only play the Chicago guys in a stack, but everyone else is fine as a one-off. Tomasek is there at 2500 and Novak at 3300 if you need them. If you want a cheap 3-man I think Donato/Mikheyev/Grzelcyk or Gallagher/Bolduc/Carrier is totally fine as well. I think everyone I mentioned here is underpriced besides Boldy, Thompson, Draisaitl, and Pastrnak. I prefer the guys that are underpriced
Defense
- John Klingberg (4200), Evan Bouchard (6300), and Jackson LaCombe (4900) are the chalk at between 15-20% owned. If you want to just play the chalk, it’s Klingberg and LaCombe as cheap PP guys.
- Our model is extremely bullish on Zach Werenski (7400) at very low ownership. I will definitely be playing him, but I’ll continue to express my concerns that he’s overpriced. That said, he’s the leveraged play so play him. I also like Roman Josi (6900) quite a bit – especially paired with Jusse Saros.
- My favorite spends here are Victor Hedman (5900), Rasmus Dahlin (6600), and Jake Chycrun (5200). The model likes all of them
- Sam Rinzel (4100), Shayne Gostisbehere (4100), and Morgan Reilly (4800) are a few lower owned PP defensemen I like tonight.
- K’Andre Miller (3300), Matt Grzelcyk (2900), Darnell Nurse (4500), Aaron Ekblad (4600), and Gus Forsling (4200) are a few of my favorites on the cheap end.
- Owen Power (3100), Jonas Brodin (3600), Brett Kulak (3100), and Niko Mikkola (2700) are a few of PD’s favorite cheap guys
- One thing I want to mention is that there are two power plays on this slate with multiple defensemen on them: Florida (Ekblad/Jones) and Pittsburgh (Karlsson/LeTang). That’s very unusual in the NHL and It is absolutely viable to play both defensemen on the PP in the same lineup. It’s a strong contrarian leverage play. Someday I’ll do an article about leveraged roster constructions that talks about tactics like that.
Synopsis: Werenski looks great and very leveraged, but my concerns have been stated before. John Klingberg (4200), Jackson LaCombe (4900), and Evan Bouchard (6300) are the chalk here. It has nothing to do with DFS or what kind of play he is – but John Klingberg is one of the worst defensemen in the NHL. Outside of Werenski I think Hedman, Josi, Dahlin, and Chycrun are the strongest stand-alone plays. Reilly and Gostisbehere are two contrarian PP guys from stacks I like. This would definitely be a night to consider spending up on two defensemen above 6K that shoot – like Werenski and Josi. That would be super leveraged in large field play.
Goalies
- Filip Gustavsson (7900) is one of the best goalies in the NHL and he’s the chalk at around 20%. That’s why we like CLS so much against him.
- Frederik Andersen is about 75 years old and wildly expensive at 8600, but still in low double digits ownership-wise. Ilya Sorokin is probably 8-10% owned and I have no problem eating the ownership at 7200. He’s too cheap for how good he is and I’m fine with guys going up against the Caps.
- Igor Shesterkin (8200), Linus Ullmark (7300), Yaroslav Askarov (7400), and Sam Ersson (6800) all look ok too. Merzlikins (7500) is also leveraged, but I’m not as high on him here.
Synopsis: Gustavsson is the clear chalk. Merzlikins is the leveraged guy. Our models love Ersson. To channel Jordan Cooper “just play whoever you want”
Stacks and Theory
- MIN1 and either SJ1 or SJ2 is the chalk here. MIN1 probably comes in about 16-18% with both Sharks lines around 12%. I think UTA2 and BUF1 pick up steam and end up in low double digits as well
- Sims say to pivot off MIN1 to TB1 and I agree. There’s value with Tomasek, some cheap defensemen, and in goal with Ersson or Sorokin. Sims Industry-wide also like MTL1/PP.
- Our sims (at the time of this article) like TB1, CBJ1/PP, and MIN1. They also definitely lean heavily toward Ersson in net and 4/3 or 4/2 stacks.
- There’s a lot to like here and Tampa is a big part of it. I definitely like the MTL/CHI and FLA/OTT games as ones that could pop. I also like CAR1, NYR1, and TOR2 quite a bit
- This is a great spot for TOR. The DET depth lines and their penalty kill look like they’re going to be awful again. I will be over the field on TOR2, TOR3, and TOR PP for sure
- I don’t dislike them, but for those of you in the chat nobody is playing COL1 tonight.
- If you need a cheap line I think TOR3, MTL3 (the bolduc line), and CAR4 both are interesting. CAR plays all 4 lines, so they will play more than a usual 4th line. Taylor Hall (CAR, 4300) is a former NHL MVP on that line.
- I do think it’s a decent night to go for a cheap line. We have plenty of Wings in the 7Ks that are simply underpriced for their ceiling. If you can get the right two that pop with a cheap line, it might shoot you straight to the top. For example you can play something like Dach/Bolduc or Gallagher/Carrier or Hutson, Kotkaniemi/Hall/Walker, or Robertson/Domi/Ekman-Larsson instead of the full MTL3 to free up a wing spot if you want. I’ve won like that before.
- We like CLS and Werenski. I do too. I continue to have concerns about them, but they are the leveraged play tonight.
- Industry wide sims like TB1 and Hedman regardless of field size.
- It’s an interesting night to spend up on multiple defensemen. We have some guys like Werenski, Josi, Hedman, Sanderson, and Chycrun that can definitely light the lamp. I wouldn’t get too fixated on LaCombe and Klingberg.
NHL Sims across the industry suggest that TB1 is an elite play. They pop using multiple projection and ownership models. CBJ1 and Werenski are also outstanding plays as leverage against MIN1 and Gustavsson. You can roll in Merzlikins with a CLS stack for max leverage in large fields. I think the key points here are 1) take advantage of the superstar wings that are simply underpriced (preferably not Kaprizov). Kucherov and Tkachuk are probably my two favorites 2) don’t get fixated on the chalk defensemen in LaCombe and Klingberg – or the 4K PP guys for that matter. There’s a ton of upside with no ownership at defense tonight in Werenski, Josi, Sanderson, and Chycrun 3) definitely viable to spend on MacKinnon insead of a wing 4) It’s NHL DFS. play whichever goalie you want.