What’s up everyone. We have a 4 game slate with what is probably some heavy chalk, so here we go. I’ll start by going position-by-position and give you some projection and ownership notes. Then I’ll get into stacks and roster construction for both large and small fields. Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL Positional Overview
Center
- The model is extremely bullish on TOR tonight. The Industry as a whole is as well. Matthews (8500) is simply underpriced by about 1K. The Tavares price (6600) is fair. Both project really well, but likely carry significant ownership. I think Matthews gets into the 30s in smaller fields. Matthews and McDavid one-offs will be super popular
- Jack Eichel (7000) is about 1K underpriced and comes in around 20% as opposed to the 30+ of McDavid or Matthews
- Industry consensus is that McDavid is slightly higher owned than Matthews and EDM1 is higher owned than TOR1. I think there’s a chance that’s wrong. I’ll get to that at the end.
- Tomas Hertl (5200) projects extremely well Industry-wide and is part of the chalk VGK3 secondary stack
- Kirby Dach (3000) and Pierre Luc-Dubois (4800) present strong value at cheaper prices and lower ownership.
- Sims like Nazem Kadri (6700) and Morgan Frost (4400) quite a bit. Nick Suzuki (6600) pops more for smaller fields than larger ones, but is a strong play nonetheless.
Synopsis: The chalk here will be to spend up on two centers. Sims strongly suggest you fade at least one of McDavid/Matthews for Suzuki/Kadri/Frost. I like Jack Eichel quite a bit as well.
Wing
- The chalk here is basically the wings from TOR1 and EDM1 (Macceli, Kneis, Draisaitl, Frederic). Draisaitl really pops in our projections. Playing him as a one-off is an interesting way to be a little different
- Nylander (7300), Ovechkin (7100) and Dorofeyev (5700) are going to be the second tier of ownership at 17-20% each.
- We are very bullish on Ovechkin. I’m a bit more skeptical of him (and of WAS as a whole) repeating the record setting pace of last year. They had a top-5 all-time shooting percentage as a team last year and scored thirteen empty net goals (8 for Ovechkin alone).
- We are also bullish on Protas (4300) and McMann (3700) as guys at cheaper prices. They’re likely in the mid-teens ownership wise and strong plays at their priced
- The models love Zach Bolduc (3200) as the PD special of the day. I don’t mind it at all.
- Mitch Marner will be running point on the PP for Vegas. That’s a high upside spot.
- Personally, I am very high on Pastrnak (8100) as a spend here. He was a part of over 40% of BOS’s goals last year and might draw 10% or lower ownership in most contests.
- Coronato, Klapka, Zary, and Farabee are all guys sims are high on. Catching a theme here?
Synopsis: We are high on Ovechkin, Nylander, and dorofeyev in the mid-tier of ownership as opposed to some of the chalkier TOR1/EDM1 guys. We are way over the Industry on Draisaitl though. Bolduc is a cheap guy if you need him. I think playing a one-off wing such as Pastrnak or Draisaitl that will be a huge part of his team’s scoring is an extremely strong play
Defense
- Bouchard (5800) is too cheap and probably 25% owned. Same goes for Morgan Reilly (4300) at 20% owned. If you just wanna play the comfy PP guys, here they are.
- Ekholm (4300) is probably around 20% owned as well. Nurse (4600) comes in behind him at around 17%. Double EDM defensemen probably isnt sneaky here
- Jake Chycrun (5500) is a great alternative to Bouchard at 8-10% ownership. He’s not on PP1, but he never met a shot he didn’t like.
- Sims love both MacKenzie Weegar (6100) and Lane Hutson (4800) as contrarian plays.
- Ekman-Larsson (3000), Sandin (2800), and Van Reimsdyk (2700) look like reasonable cheap guys, but you shouldn’t need them. I think Hampus Lindholm (3700) has a chance to return value and play a ton for this Bruins team I’ll talk about later.
- Zayne Parekh is going to be inactive for the Flames. The Flames suck.
Synopsis: Bouchard and Reilly are too cheap. You can definitely eat the Bouchard chalk and account for it elsewhere. Chycrun, Weegar, and Hutson are all strong contrarian plays the sims like
Goalies
- Hill (7800), Skinner (8100), and Thompson (7900) are the chalk. Hill is probably 25%-ish with the other two guys in the low-20s. Stolarz comes in behind them at 15-18% or so
- Our sims are pretty flat on Wolf, Montembeault, and Swayman as the leveraged goalies.
- I do expect somewhat of a bounceback from Swayman this year. He was an elite goalie in ’23, but sat out part of last year with contract issues and never got on track. BOS’s defense was also crippled without Lindholm and McAvoy in the second half. They should be better this year. I think it’s possible models are underestimating Swayman Industry-wide
Synopsis: Sims like Montembeault, Wolf, and Swayman. They’re all strong plays, but I have a personal bias toward Swayman because we’ve seen him be so good before.
Stacks and Theory
- TOR1 and EDM1 are the chalkiest primary lines. The Industry thinks EDM1 will be more popular. I disagree. I think TOR1 is a comfier click and TOR PP with Nylander instead of Macceli is something people will also be very comfortable with due to the matchup with penalty-happy MTL.
- VGK3 will be the most popular secondary line, You’ll see WSH1 and VGK1 paired with TOR1 as well.
- McDavid or Matthews one-offs will be very popular – especailly in smaller fields – due to the lousy pricing job by DK. I think a clever way to take advantage is to flip the build over and play Draisaitl, Nylander, or Pastrnak as a one-off. I’m less enthusiastic about playing Ovechkin as a one-off due to the low prices of his line mates. This is the same reason why I think Matthews as a one-off is pretty -EV.
- Sims take a pretty strong stance: the highest win rate play regardless of contest or field size is the Flames. This is pretty much true using whatever projection set you want.
- They also take a pretty strong stance on Weegar as the top defensemen
- In 3-max and smaller field contests you see more MTL1 and BOS1 creep into the high win rate lineups. They’re both strong plays as well.
- Our Sims are pretty flat at G between Wolf, Montembeault, and Swayman
- My Personal strongest plays of the slate are BOS1, VGK1 and MTL1. I also think LAK1 is going to be super low owned, Kempe could definitely be the slate’s highest scorer, and they’re fully correlated on the PP. They also look great. I also love Jeremy Swayman. I’m gonna try to buy an elite goalie at a discount.
NHL Sims strongly suggest that CGY1 and Weegar are the strongest plays regardless of contest. This is especially true of large fields. MTL1 and BOS1 make their way into the sims at a high rate in smaller fields, SE, and 3-max contests. My observations from the slate are 1) it’s a sharp play to use a W like Pastrnak, Draisaitl or Nylander as a one-off instead of a chalky C 2) playing Matthews as a one-off is clearly -EV. His line mates are too cheap 3) I think a more balanced build without TOR will definitely be contrarian. 4) play some Flames. They suck, but Skinner is pretty mid and chalky