Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on Jonthon Brooks (RB) and Bucky Irving (RB) from UT and ORE respectively. Both are projected for over 40% ownership as double digit favorites. At the quarterback position, Kurtis Rourke leads the way with 37.10% ownership. Rourke is mis-priced relative to his upside and his cheaper price is inflating ownership on some higher end QBSs to pair with him like Dillon Gabriel and Seth Henigan. Spotlight at wide receiver is on Demeer Blankumsee (WR, IL) with 43.11% ownership against UAB. With his projected median of 16.85 and salary of $4700 he provide roster flexibility, allowing you to spend up at other positions
- UAB and MEM look like the chalk stacks given the high ownership across their teams. Six of the fifteen highest owned players on the slate are coming from these two teams. However, it’s unclear how many people will full game stack so that may be a way differentiate your roster construction. Lastly, the ORE and UT passing games are going to be under-owned relative to their ceiling and deserve GPP consideration.
- Bucky Irving (RB, ORE) and Jonathon Brooks (RB, UT) are clearly the chalk with ownership percentages at 43.94% and 45.78% respectively, and high median projections. However, Ollie Gordon II, Braelon Allen, and Jermaine Brown Jr. have just as much upside at significantly less ownership. Similarly, Isaiah Williams makes a strong pivot at the receiver position.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
CFB Cash Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
QB: Kurtis Rourke
RB: Bucky Irving
WR1: Dameer Blankumsee
WR2: Amare Thomas
Flex: Jonathon Brooks
CFB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
QB: Bo Nix
RB: Ollie Gordon II
WR1: Isaiah Williams
WR2: Xavier Worthy
Flex: Braelon Allen
DFS Stack Considerations
ORE (University of Oregon)
UT (University of Texas)
OU (University of Oklahoma)
CFB DFS Final Thoughts
Players like Troy Franklin, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Williams have relatively lower ownership percentages but still have strong median projections. Rostering these players can be a way to differentiate your lineup in large tournaments. Additionally, In high-total games you can also consider full offensive stacks. For example, with Dillon Gabriel and Jalil Farooq both popular you can balance ownership by adding a low-owned Tawee Walker. In summary, while certain games and players are drawing a lot of attention, the key to success lies in striking the right balance between popular picks and underrated gems.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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